Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Yes, you are right. It's been discussed here ad nauseum. No one believes me, and that's ok. Greeks are not hocus-pocus. They are just another TA tool, much like EW, channels, fibs, etc.

No one can predict direction. Why? Because it's a casino. You roll dice and it's always 50-50 on roulette black or red.

Thursday, we're red.
View attachment 1050423

Friday, we're green.
View attachment 1050424

So we can't predict direction - up or down depends on macros and MM's games.

But we can predict range, and that's way more than good enough. Yes, with enough capital and good risk management, that's rly more than enough to make a living on. What do i mean with range? That's your major supp/res. That's your 1σ. That's your 16Δ. Additionally, there's 3 helpers to add confluence: "vanna + gamma + OI"

Excluding OTM, you can tell from OI where everyone's bet is at. Lowest tall put and Highest tall call. That's your 1st clue. (Why bother with knowing bullseye, unless you're knee-deep in Straddles or flying too close to the sun?)

For TSLA, that means 150-200. There's a lot of strategies one can use to make money off that info. (Premiums too low? That's another story. But you got your range.)

View attachment 1050454

Your 2nd clue is gamma. Gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Far from expiration it is a range, closer to expiration it becomes probable magnet - tallest is "strongest wifi". Gamma is positioning of market participants (you, me, institutions) at any given time. If there is a cluster of gammas, it is likely to be magnet, especially the tallest. It doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall. For tall +gammas, dealers will buy stock as price approaches it from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. For tall -gammas, dealers will sell stock as price approaches it from above and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside. Gamma squeezes are more likely to happen on Fridays. If -gex is below spot, selling would accelerate (-gex is magnet). If -gex is above spot, buying would accelerate (-gex is magnet).

I noticed that SMCI/NVDA doesn't respect gamma walls. Their weight/pull is too strong.

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

OK, that was a handful. Let's see a very good example.

March 7, Thursday 8:55pm. NVDA vanna suspiciously has a terrifying large cluster of reds 880-900 for next day Friday close. But gamma says 950 is tallest magnet (ie Friday close is a little bit below or above 950). Who to believe? I trust vanna more than gamma. Vanna is MM/dealer positioning. Gamma is retail/institutional positioning. So that night, i posted "agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever".

View attachment 1050435

March 8, Friday. NVDA climbed +19 PM to open at 950 just like gamma predicted (it was a magnet). Then vanna took over to crash the stock. Vanna is dealer preference. It is their "grand total positioning" to remain neutral.

View attachment 1050439

my bet was -p840
View attachment 1050458

That's what i meant by "vanna + gamma + OI". I look at those walls and make a guess range. Seeing 880-950, my 840 was below the walls.

Bookmark this, coz if i have to explain it again one more time...

In other news, leave me alone imma busyyyyyyyyy
View attachment 1050463

Someone got an early Decoration Day Weekend present.. I’m talking to you @SpaceXaddict.;-) Make sure to hit the tip jar!

Great post btw.

 

[Max Plaid]

Yes, you are right. It's been discussed here ad nauseum. No one believes me, and that's ok. Greeks are not hocus-pocus. They are just another TA tool, much like EW, channels, fibs, etc.

No one can predict direction. Why? Because it's a casino. You roll dice and it's always 50-50 on roulette black or red.

Thursday, we're red.
View attachment 1050423

Friday, we're green.
View attachment 1050424

So we can't predict direction - up or down depends on macros and MM's games.

But we can predict range, and that's way more than good enough. Yes, with enough capital and good risk management, that's rly more than enough to make a living on. What do i mean with range? That's your major supp/res. That's your 1σ. That's your 16Δ. Additionally, there's 3 helpers to add confluence: "vanna + gamma + OI"

Excluding OTM, you can tell from OI where everyone's bet is at. Lowest tall put and Highest tall call. That's your 1st clue. (Why bother with knowing bullseye, unless you're knee-deep in Straddles or flying too close to the sun?)

For TSLA, that means 150-200. There's a lot of strategies one can use to make money off that info. (Premiums too low? That's another story. But you got your range.)

View attachment 1050454

Your 2nd clue is gamma. Gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Far from expiration it is a range, closer to expiration it becomes probable magnet - tallest is "strongest wifi". Gamma is positioning of market participants (you, me, institutions) at any given time. If there is a cluster of gammas, it is likely to be magnet, especially the tallest. It doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall. For tall +gammas, dealers will buy stock as price approaches it from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. For tall -gammas, dealers will sell stock as price approaches it from above and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside. Gamma squeezes are more likely to happen on Fridays. If -gex is below spot, selling would accelerate (-gex is magnet). If -gex is above spot, buying would accelerate (-gex is magnet).

I noticed that SMCI/NVDA doesn't respect gamma walls. Their weight/pull is too strong.

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

OK, that was a handful. Let's see a very good example.

March 7, Thursday 8:55pm. NVDA vanna suspiciously has a terrifying large cluster of reds 880-900 for next day Friday close. But gamma says 950 is tallest magnet (ie Friday close is a little bit below or above 950). Who to believe? I trust vanna more than gamma. Vanna is MM/dealer positioning. Gamma is retail/institutional positioning. So that night, i posted "agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever".

View attachment 1050435

March 8, Friday. NVDA climbed +19 PM to open at 950 just like gamma predicted (it was a magnet). Then vanna took over to crash the stock. Vanna is dealer preference. It is their "grand total positioning" to remain neutral.

View attachment 1050439

my bet was -p840
View attachment 1050458

That's what i meant by "vanna + gamma + OI". I look at those walls and make a guess range. Seeing 880-950, my 840 was below the walls.

Bookmark this, coz if i have to explain it again one more time...

In other news, leave me alone imma busyyyyyyyyy
View attachment 1050463

Great post, except for the Netflix picks, no doubt my daughter watched a lot of those when she was deep in to SK culture, I didn't get any further than Parasite and Train to Busan - but I did go and see BTS with her

Our film tonight was

 

[tivoboy]

Great post, except for the Netflix picks, no doubt my daughter watched a lot of those when she was deep in to SK culture, I didn't get any further than Parasite and Train to Busan - but I did go and see BTS with her

Our film tonight was

View attachment 1050580

Just start with Fargo season one and work forward.

For SK, well recently not IN Korean but Korean directed was BEEF.. which is funny and could have only been a north american english film, because well it wouldn't take more than about 30 minutes to drive across SK.. kidding. Love the island, been there many times, best of nearly anything in the western pacific.

 

[LAexpress]

Any Column pays 2:1.... but there's 3 colums.
Any 12-number-group pays 2:1... but there's 3 groups.

Don’t the three columns pay 3:1 and if you bet one on each you break even. Only losing with a green 0,00…
Same with the three 12-number-group…

 

[SpaceXaddict]

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

Thanks for that huge write up, I do appreciate it. I should have just asked for a definition of Vanna and where to find it. It's not in the wiki. Delta, theta and gamma my broker software shows me, along with OI, though it's nice to see the graphs. I had never heard of Vanna before, but I assume it's "Vega's rate of change"?

Someone got an early Decoration Day Weekend present.. I’m talking to you @SpaceXaddict.;-) Make sure to hit the tip jar!

Great post btw.

I couldn't find an actual tip jar, but I did give her a like?

 

[Jim Holder]

Got our the trigger to $160?

Tesla Inc. shareholders are being urged by a major proxy advisory firm to reject a proposed $56 billion pay package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, in a blow to the electric-vehicle maker’s board.

Glass Lewis & Co. made its recommendation in a report released Saturday, citing the “excessive size” of the pay deal and the dilutive effect upon exercise.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ers-should-reject-musk-s-pay-glass-lewis-says

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794454397172543768

UPDATE:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794547553125478566

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Got our the trigger to $160

Tesla Inc. shareholders are being urged by a major proxy advisory firm to reject a proposed $56 billion pay package for Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk, in a blow to the electric-vehicle maker’s board.

Glass Lewis & Co. made its recommendation in a report released Saturday, citing the “excessive size” of the pay deal and the dilutive effect upon exercise.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ers-should-reject-musk-s-pay-glass-lewis-says

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794454397172543768

Color me skeptical. They voted the same in 2018 and we had 70% approval.

 

[DaBooster]

Yes, you are right. It's been discussed here ad nauseum. No one believes me, and that's ok. Greeks are not hocus-pocus. They are just another TA tool, much like EW, channels, fibs, etc.

No one can predict direction. Why? Because it's a casino. You roll dice and it's always 50-50 on roulette black or red.

Thursday, we're red.
View attachment 1050423

Friday, we're green.
View attachment 1050424

So we can't predict direction - up or down depends on macros and MM's games.

But we can predict range, and that's way more than good enough. Yes, with enough capital and good risk management, that's rly more than enough to make a living on. What do i mean with range? That's your major supp/res. That's your 1σ. That's your 16Δ. Additionally, there's 3 helpers to add confluence: "vanna + gamma + OI"

Excluding OTM, you can tell from OI where everyone's bet is at. Lowest tall put and Highest tall call. That's your 1st clue. (Why bother with knowing bullseye, unless you're knee-deep in Straddles or flying too close to the sun?)

For TSLA, that means 150-200. There's a lot of strategies one can use to make money off that info. (Premiums too low? That's another story. But you got your range.)

View attachment 1050454

Your 2nd clue is gamma. Gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Far from expiration it is a range, closer to expiration it becomes probable magnet - tallest is "strongest wifi". Gamma is positioning of market participants (you, me, institutions) at any given time. If there is a cluster of gammas, it is likely to be magnet, especially the tallest. It doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall. For tall +gammas, dealers will buy stock as price approaches it from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. For tall -gammas, dealers will sell stock as price approaches it from above and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside. Gamma squeezes are more likely to happen on Fridays. If -gex is below spot, selling would accelerate (-gex is magnet). If -gex is above spot, buying would accelerate (-gex is magnet).

I noticed that SMCI/NVDA doesn't respect gamma walls. Their weight/pull is too strong.

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

OK, that was a handful. Let's see a very good example.

March 7, Thursday 8:55pm. NVDA vanna suspiciously has a terrifying large cluster of reds 880-900 for next day Friday close. But gamma says 950 is tallest magnet (ie Friday close is a little bit below or above 950). Who to believe? I trust vanna more than gamma. Vanna is MM/dealer positioning. Gamma is retail/institutional positioning. So that night, i posted "agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever".

View attachment 1050435

March 8, Friday. NVDA climbed +19 PM to open at 950 just like gamma predicted (it was a magnet). Then vanna took over to crash the stock. Vanna is dealer preference. It is their "grand total positioning" to remain neutral.

View attachment 1050439

my bet was -p840
View attachment 1050458

That's what i meant by "vanna + gamma + OI". I look at those walls and make a guess range. Seeing 880-950, my 840 was below the walls.

Bookmark this, coz if i have to explain it again one more time...

In other news, leave me alone imma busyyyyyyyyy
View attachment 1050463

Thank you for the recap (and I always believed you & greeks)

 

[Jim Holder]

Color me skeptical. They voted the same in 2018 and we had 70% approval.

Yes, this supports what you’re saying:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794547553125478566

 

[Jim Holder]

June 14 has an interesting look, quite stacked over $200-$210:

 

[Jim Holder]

General overview next month:

 

[Knightshade]

Don’t the three columns pay 3:1 and if you bet one on each you break even. Only losing with a green 0,00…
Same with the three 12-number-group…

Nope.

Basic Rules for Roulette

Our spacious casino features a full range of table games in lavish & friendly surroundings. With over 225 games, there is something for everyone.

www.venetianlasvegas.com

Twelve numbers or dozens (first, second, third dozen) pays 2 to 1.
Column bet (12 numbers in a row) pays 2 to 1.

Like I said, they spell it out right on the table how terrible the odds are.... Yet still have folks lining up to play.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Don’t the three columns pay 3:1 and if you bet one on each you break even. Only losing with a green 0,00…
Same with the three 12-number-group…

As @Knightshade points out, it is indeed 2:1. Perhaps you’re picturing the 3:1 because you get to keep your original chip (plus the 2 chips won). So, yes, in theory you could bet one chip on each colum and break even if it’s 1-36, while losing on a green 0 or 00. In practice, however, since such a bet leaves you no way to win and a small chance of losing, many of the reputable Vegas casinos will disallow such a bet, on the basis of “Anyone attempting to place such a bet either doesn’t understand the rules or is too impaired to make decisions, so to ensure our good standing with the Nevada Gaming Commission we choose to disallow such bets.” (Occasionally one can get approval to sidestep that and place the bet after fully conveying competency and that you are purely doing it to be funny and entertain the other(s) at the table with you, particularly when the pit bosses are quite familiar with your proclivity to do such things in advance.)

PS: I have the utmost respect for the Nevada Gaming Commission. They have a level of oversight, precise and reasonable rules, and strong enforcement that puts the SEC’s “oversight” of the stock market to shame…

 

[Jim Holder]

Yes, you are right. It's been discussed here ad nauseum. No one believes me, and that's ok. Greeks are not hocus-pocus. They are just another TA tool, much like EW, channels, fibs, etc.

No one can predict direction. Why? Because it's a casino. You roll dice and it's always 50-50 on roulette black or red.

Thursday, we're red.
View attachment 1050423

Friday, we're green.
View attachment 1050424

So we can't predict direction - up or down depends on macros and MM's games.

But we can predict range, and that's way more than good enough. Yes, with enough capital and good risk management, that's rly more than enough to make a living on. What do i mean with range? That's your major supp/res. That's your 1σ. That's your 16Δ. Additionally, there's 3 helpers to add confluence: "vanna + gamma + OI"

Excluding OTM, you can tell from OI where everyone's bet is at. Lowest tall put and Highest tall call. That's your 1st clue. (Why bother with knowing bullseye, unless you're knee-deep in Straddles or flying too close to the sun?)

For TSLA, that means 150-200. There's a lot of strategies one can use to make money off that info. (Premiums too low? That's another story. But you got your range.)

View attachment 1050454

Your 2nd clue is gamma. Gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Far from expiration it is a range, closer to expiration it becomes probable magnet - tallest is "strongest wifi". Gamma is positioning of market participants (you, me, institutions) at any given time. If there is a cluster of gammas, it is likely to be magnet, especially the tallest. It doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall. For tall +gammas, dealers will buy stock as price approaches it from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. For tall -gammas, dealers will sell stock as price approaches it from above and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside. Gamma squeezes are more likely to happen on Fridays. If -gex is below spot, selling would accelerate (-gex is magnet). If -gex is above spot, buying would accelerate (-gex is magnet).

I noticed that SMCI/NVDA doesn't respect gamma walls. Their weight/pull is too strong.

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

OK, that was a handful. Let's see a very good example.

March 7, Thursday 8:55pm. NVDA vanna suspiciously has a terrifying large cluster of reds 880-900 for next day Friday close. But gamma says 950 is tallest magnet (ie Friday close is a little bit below or above 950). Who to believe? I trust vanna more than gamma. Vanna is MM/dealer positioning. Gamma is retail/institutional positioning. So that night, i posted "agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever".

View attachment 1050435

March 8, Friday. NVDA climbed +19 PM to open at 950 just like gamma predicted (it was a magnet). Then vanna took over to crash the stock. Vanna is dealer preference. It is their "grand total positioning" to remain neutral.

View attachment 1050439

my bet was -p840
View attachment 1050458

That's what i meant by "vanna + gamma + OI". I look at those walls and make a guess range. Seeing 880-950, my 840 was below the walls.

Bookmark this, coz if i have to explain it again one more time...

In other news, leave me alone imma busyyyyyyyyy
View attachment 1050463

Thank you!


Here's a condensed summary, printed and on my desk:

YOONA'S GREEKS CHEAT SHEET

Greeks (OI/GAMMA/VANNA) help predict range NOT direction. They are used to add confluence to our standard TA/EW/channels/fibs/etc.

1) OI shows where everyone's bet is placed at. The range is normally between the lowest tall PUT wall, and highest tall CALL wall.

2) GAMMA shows the positioning of market participants (i.e., retail, institutions) at any given time. At several days from expiration it can show general range. Closer to expiration the tallest bar/cluster becomes a probable MAGNET to just below or above the wall, especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Dealers will BUY stock as price approaches tall +Gammas from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. Dealers will SELL stock as price approaches tall -Gammas from above, and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside.

3) VANNA shows the positioning and preferred range of MM's and DEALERS at any given time. It is most accurate ~20Δ. Far OTM strike don't mean it'll close there. Very tall vanna walls tend to be "solid walls you can't cross." The closer to OPEX, the more influence VANNA has, because stocks are more volatile and VANNA reacts to IV changes. It is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OPEX and VIXperation.

If -VEX is ABOVE spot and price is RISING: -VEX becomes repellant (-VEX is resistance)
If -VEX is BELOW spot and price is DROPPING: -VEX becomes repellant (-VEX is support)

+VANNA (GREEN) ABOVE/BELOW spot = Magnet
If price is DROPPING and IV is RISING: SP will be pulled into +VEX below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
If price is RISING and IV is DROPPING: SP will be pulled into +VEX above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-VANNA (RED) ABOVE/BELOW spot = Repellant
If price is DROPPING and IV is RISING: SP will be repelled by -VEX below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
If price is RISING and IV is DROPPING: SP will be repelled by -VEX above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)

--------------------------


Based on this methodology, next week TSLA 5/31:

Gamma: Bet ranges are $175 (largest red bar) and $180 (largest green bar)
Vanna: Very tall walls are $180 and $190 on the green side, and $175 and $150 on the red side.
OI: Range $150-$200 (not that helpful ;- )

I wish the data sites would just summarize this for us like this!

(Warning: All three can change Tuesday morning!)

 

[LAexpress]

Nope.

Basic Rules for Roulette

Our spacious casino features a full range of table games in lavish & friendly surroundings. With over 225 games, there is something for everyone.

www.venetianlasvegas.com

Like I said, they spell it out right on the table how terrible the odds are.... Yet still have folks lining up to play.

The odds are the same.
Bet one unit on 12 individual numbers and if one hits you are returned 36 units.
Bet 12 units on one of the groups of three and if it hits you are returned 36 units.

 

[adiggs]

Thank you!


Here's a condensed summary, printed and on my desk:

YOONA'S GREEKS CHEAT SHEET

Greeks (OI/GAMMA/VANNA) help predict range NOT direction. They are used to add confluence to our standard TA/EW/channels/fibs/etc.

1) OI shows where everyone's bet is placed at. The range is normally between the lowest tall PUT wall, and highest tall CALL wall.

2) GAMMA shows the positioning of market participants (i.e., retail, institutions) at any given time. At several days from expiration it can show general range. Closer to expiration the tallest bar/cluster becomes a probable MAGNET to just below or above the wall, especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Dealers will BUY stock as price approaches tall +Gammas from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. Dealers will SELL stock as price approaches tall -Gammas from above, and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside.

3) VANNA shows the positioning and preferred range of MM's and DEALERS at any given time. It is most accurate ~20Δ. Far OTM strike don't mean it'll close there. Very tall vanna walls tend to be "solid walls you can't cross." The closer to OPEX, the more influence VANNA has, because stocks are more volatile and VANNA reacts to IV changes. It is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OPEX and VIXperation.

If -VEX is ABOVE spot and price is RISING: -VEX becomes repellant (-VEX is resistance)
If -VEX is BELOW spot and price is DROPPING: -VEX becomes repellant (-VEX is support)

+VANNA (GREEN) ABOVE/BELOW spot = Magnet
If price is DROPPING and IV is RISING: SP will be pulled into +VEX below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
If price is RISING and IV is DROPPING: SP will be pulled into +VEX above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-VANNA (RED) ABOVE/BELOW spot = Repellant
If price is DROPPING and IV is RISING: SP will be repelled by -VEX below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
If price is RISING and IV is DROPPING: SP will be repelled by -VEX above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)

--------------------------


Based on this methodology, next week TSLA 5/31:

Gamma: Bet ranges are $175 (largest red bar) and $180 (largest green bar)
Vanna: Very tall walls are $180 and $190 on the green side, and $175 and $150 on the red side.
OI: Range $150-$200 (not that helpful ;- )

I wish the data sites would just summarize this for us like this!

(Warning: All three can change Tuesday morning!)

View attachment 1050725

I don't like being pedantic, and I do understand the information you are trying to get together.

When people are generally talking about "the greeks" in the context of options, they are talking about delta, gamma, theta, vega, and rho.

Delta = the change in the price of the option per $1 change in the underlying instrument (share price).
Gamma = the change in delta for a $1 change in the underlying instrument
Theta = Change in the price of the option based on time going by
Vega = Change in the price of an option for changes in IV
Rho = the risk free rate of return

Rho is mostly ignored but it does go into the Black-Scholes formula for calculating the value of an option.


I'm finding the idea of Vanna fascinating, but its a secondary market attribute - not one of the option greeks. My comment doesn't change anything about the meaning of Vanna described here. However Gamma as described here is an interpretation of the overall gamma in the market, rather than gamma as you'll get from your broker in the option chain. The latter is the value for the specific option, while above is a sum over the entire market and all options for an expiration.

 

[Yoona]

Thanks for that huge write up, I do appreciate it. I should have just asked for a definition of Vanna and where to find it.

if you are really determined to have an edge, this is a must-watch:

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794665264094818486

 

[DaBooster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1794665264094818486

I'm going with the @dl003 forecast

 

[Jim Holder]

I'm going with the @dl003 forecast

We may see both, drop to $168-$161 and then head up. Or straight to $188 and then $168. Not very helpful I know