Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Yoona]

Splendid, will shift to PM's and see if we can hook up together with @Yoona

wait, what... we have a date?

 

[Patrick66]

Maybe Maybe we are hitting that super rare scenarios where TSLA just pump to the Moon........carry by Market Euphoria and AI AI AI?

The way I see some more pure AI plays moving I doubt that is the catalyst. To me I think we are in for a period of higher volatility for TSLA while some issues shake out.

Meanwhile, riding the NVDA and AAPL bandwagon for next few weeks. NVDA 1100+ anyone. Wicked did outline a potential of 1180 in 2-3 weeks, as long as 1034 HOLD.

Pretty confident in NVDA >1100; sold a handful of -P1100 for 6/14, and I think some -P1150 elsewhere in June.

I never bet against AAPL... typing this from my new iPadPro that was stupidly expensive IMO and something I would never buy. Sadly it is really good.

 

[phantasms]

Happy long weekend everyone. Here’s to 160 or 230 next week.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It's "microdosing" doggy, microdosing...

Nothing wrong with an occasional heroic dose to defragment your brain. I'm overdue. That's what's wrong with the world. Not enough brain defragmenting.

 

[Patrick66]

Happy long weekend everyone. Here’s to 160 or 230 next week.

OR? I thought this thread is all about 160 AND 230 next week!

 

[Discoducky]

Who would have thought?

View attachment 1050257

ARM is missing

 

[SpaceXaddict]

just glancing on one TradingView chart at the iPad while on the kitchen is all i need

why? because the article is bang-on correct: with DITM CC, i can guess the direction wrong and still make money; all i need at setup is vanna + gamma + OI (in that order) and off i go

Can you explain what you mean by "vanna + gamma + OI". What specifically do you look for in a setup to think its a good idea to make the trade?

(Please link to a post where you talk about this if you have covered it ad nauseam, or give me a good search term. Looking for "Yoona" on here gives me a lot to read. (All good stuff too, it seems. THANKS!)

 

[SpaceXaddict]

Will you be buying new LEAP calls, like +P100 6/2026, if we fall more? Sentiment is all over the place currently.

Please correct me on my reading here. "+P100 6/2026" to me I read as "long 6/2026 puts at a $100 strike price"? But the preceding sentence about "Buying leap calls" throws me off. What am I missing?

 

[mongo]

Please correct me on my reading here. "+P100 6/2026" to me I read as "long 6/2026 puts at a $100 strike price"? But the preceding sentence about "Buying leap calls" throws me off. What am I missing?

I think it's a C/P typo...

 

[SpaceXaddict]

Has anyone considered the possibility that the 2018 compensation plan for Elon will fail the vote?
I apologize if this has been discussed, I try to keep up with this board, but I am forced to try and read a weeks worth of pages every Friday night.

Anyway, I kinda am getting the feeling that this vote may fail, and Elon will then threaten to walk. It's what he has to do.

And the ONE THING That makes Elon into ELON is that ELON can suffer immense pain. So, leaving Tesla is not off the table. (probably with intentions to come back later.)

But he cannot stay on without compensation and he can't do nothing if the vote fails. Otherwise he is accepting the ruling of a dirty thieving criminal judge.

But I really don't know what the proportion of shares that are controlled and by whom. I wish there was a way to have an idea of how it was going.

Results will be June 13th at the annual meeting. That's in like 2 weeks.

So, I see a slow rise until 8/8 if the vote passes.

But if Elon talks of walking, we may crash down to $100.

 

[Patrick66]

Has anyone considered the possibility that the 2018 compensation plan for Elon will fail the vote?

Sure, it is plausible, maybe even likely. What is more likely is that the board comes up with an alternative compensation plan that is slightly more transparent and addresses shareholder concerns. I think what will really throw Elon into a tailspin is actually rejection of the reincorporation to Texas.

What really matters isn't the result of the vote, but how the company deals with it afterwards.

 

[`BiggusB]

Has anyone considered the possibility that the 2018 compensation plan for Elon will fail the vote?
I apologize if this has been discussed, I try to keep up with this board, but I am forced to try and read a weeks worth of pages every Friday night.

Anyway, I kinda am getting the feeling that this vote may fail, and Elon will then threaten to walk. It's what he has to do.

And the ONE THING That makes Elon into ELON is that ELON can suffer immense pain. So, leaving Tesla is not off the table. (probably with intentions to come back later.)

But he cannot stay on without compensation and he can't do nothing if the vote fails. Otherwise he is accepting the ruling of a dirty thieving criminal judge.

But I really don't know what the proportion of shares that are controlled and by whom. I wish there was a way to have an idea of how it was going.

Results will be June 13th at the annual meeting. That's in like 2 weeks.

So, I see a slow rise until 8/8 if the vote passes.

But if Elon talks of walking, we may crash down to $100.

While possible, unlikely that Musk will walk IMO. Imagine what will happen to the Twitter lev-fin loan (collateralized by $tsla) if he walks thereby crashing $tsla. How will a margin call of that size be funded? Perhaps he can offer SpaceX shares to do a recap but it will become a real 4D chess played at tens of $billions.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Has anyone considered the possibility that the 2018 compensation plan for Elon will fail the vote?
I apologize if this has been discussed, I try to keep up with this board, but I am forced to try and read a weeks worth of pages every Friday night.

Anyway, I kinda am getting the feeling that this vote may fail, and Elon will then threaten to walk. It's what he has to do.

And the ONE THING That makes Elon into ELON is that ELON can suffer immense pain. So, leaving Tesla is not off the table. (probably with intentions to come back later.)

But he cannot stay on without compensation and he can't do nothing if the vote fails. Otherwise he is accepting the ruling of a dirty thieving criminal judge.

But I really don't know what the proportion of shares that are controlled and by whom. I wish there was a way to have an idea of how it was going.

Results will be June 13th at the annual meeting. That's in like 2 weeks.

So, I see a slow rise until 8/8 if the vote passes.

But if Elon talks of walking, we may crash down to $100.

Here ChatGPT already considered it

«
If the vote for Elon Musk's compensation package fails, several potential outcomes could occur:

1. **Renegotiation**: Tesla's board of directors might go back to the drawing board and propose a revised compensation package. This new package could address shareholder concerns that led to the initial rejection.

2. **Retention**: Despite the vote's outcome, Elon Musk could choose to continue leading Tesla without immediate changes to his compensation. Given his significant investment in Tesla and personal stake in the company's success, he might decide to remain with the company while negotiations continue.

3. **Impact on Management**: A failed vote could potentially influence the company's management strategies and operations. The board might have to consider different incentives to retain and motivate Musk and other key executives.

4. **Shareholder Confidence**: The outcome could affect shareholder confidence. A failed vote might signal shareholder dissatisfaction with executive compensation, potentially impacting Tesla's stock price and market perception.

5. **Public Communication**: Tesla would likely issue a public statement addressing the vote's results and outlining next steps. This communication would be crucial to maintain transparency and manage investor expectations.

The specific actions Elon Musk might take would depend on various factors, including the details of the vote, the board's response, and broader strategic considerations for Tesla. »

 

[OrthoSurg]

wait, what... we have a date?

View attachment 1050277

You know why Montreal is the safest city in NA? Because you can’t use a car in Montreal anymore. St Denis was closed yesterday for the Book festival, 35 construction sites downtown Montreal, Berri being in construction for 2 years now. Pro-Palestine protesters camping on the McGill grounds. So many streets were blocked yesterday.

Last time I used my Tesla to go downtown I got read ended. Yesterday I went for the first time in years on my bike and traded road rage for pedaling fun. That was so refreshing. I promised myself to never drive in Montreal anymore, $4600 damage as per insurance estimator for a little dent on the rear left wheel and bumper on my new Model Y. I’m so dump I should have waited for the stainless steel cybertruck. I have the same feeling as when I sell puts to early and the stock crashes right after.

 

[mongo]

Imagine what will happen to the Twitter lev-fin loan (collateralized by $tsla) if he walks thereby crashing $tsla. How will a margin call of that size be funded?

That doesn't exist.
While the preliminary package had a TSLA backed loan, the final purchase financing did not.

 

[tivoboy]

Can you explain what you mean by "vanna + gamma + OI". What specifically do you look for in a setup to think its a good idea to make the trade?

(Please link to a post where you talk about this if you have covered it ad nauseam, or give me a good search term. Looking for "Yoona" on here gives me a lot to read. (All good stuff too, it seems. THANKS!)

You're best to really search for @Yoona in this thread and really just sort all the larger posts chronologically and read them all.

It would be a truly worthy exercise for learning and confidence if you want to apply her/their quite successful strategies and analysis

 

[Surfer of Life]

Can you explain what you mean by "vanna + gamma + OI". What specifically do you look for in a setup to think its a good idea to make the trade?

(Please link to a post where you talk about this if you have covered it ad nauseam, or give me a good search term. Looking for "Yoona" on here gives me a lot to read. (All good stuff too, it seems. THANKS!)

See Wiki - Options & "the Wheel" Glossary and FAQ

For forum guidance. Hopefully someone smarter than me adds yanna, vanna, and another 6 or 8 other newer oft- mentioned items to the glossary.

Scroll down that page for many very useful tips.

 

[Yoona]

Can you explain what you mean by "vanna + gamma + OI".

Yes, you are right. It's been discussed here ad nauseum. No one believes me, and that's ok. Greeks are not hocus-pocus. They are just another TA tool, much like EW, channels, fibs, etc.

No one can predict direction. Why? Because it's a casino. You roll dice and it's always 50-50 on roulette black or red.

Thursday, we're red.

Friday, we're green.

So we can't predict direction - up or down depends on macros and MM's games.

But we can predict range, and that's way more than good enough. Yes, with enough capital and good risk management, that's rly more than enough to make a living on. What do i mean with range? That's your major supp/res. That's your 1σ. That's your 16Δ. Additionally, there's 3 helpers to add confluence: "vanna + gamma + OI"

Excluding OTM, you can tell from OI where everyone's bet is at. Lowest tall put and Highest tall call. That's your 1st clue. (Why bother with knowing bullseye, unless you're knee-deep in Straddles or flying too close to the sun?)

For TSLA, that means 150-200. There's a lot of strategies one can use to make money off that info. (Premiums too low? That's another story. But you got your range.)

Your 2nd clue is gamma. Gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Far from expiration it is a range, closer to expiration it becomes probable magnet - tallest is "strongest wifi". Gamma is positioning of market participants (you, me, institutions) at any given time. If there is a cluster of gammas, it is likely to be magnet, especially the tallest. It doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall. For tall +gammas, dealers will buy stock as price approaches it from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. For tall -gammas, dealers will sell stock as price approaches it from above and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside. Gamma squeezes are more likely to happen on Fridays. If -gex is below spot, selling would accelerate (-gex is magnet). If -gex is above spot, buying would accelerate (-gex is magnet).

I noticed that SMCI/NVDA doesn't respect gamma walls. Their weight/pull is too strong.

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

OK, that was a handful. Let's see a very good example.

March 7, Thursday 8:55pm. NVDA vanna suspiciously has a terrifying large cluster of reds 880-900 for next day Friday close. But gamma says 950 is tallest magnet (ie Friday close is a little bit below or above 950). Who to believe? I trust vanna more than gamma. Vanna is MM/dealer positioning. Gamma is retail/institutional positioning. So that night, i posted "agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever".

March 8, Friday. NVDA climbed +19 PM to open at 950 just like gamma predicted (it was a magnet). Then vanna took over to crash the stock. Vanna is dealer preference. It is their "grand total positioning" to remain neutral.

my bet was -p840

That's what i meant by "vanna + gamma + OI". I look at those walls and make a guess range. Seeing 880-950, my 840 was below the walls.

Bookmark this, coz if i have to explain it again one more time...

In other news, leave me alone imma busyyyyyyyyy

 

[thenewguy1979]

The beauty of this forum is when someone see something we say something so everyone can make their own call. Not a guaranteed but the collective consciousness is a powerful thing.

Both dl003 and tivoboy called out rug pull before the Thursday event etc….

Yoona also mentioned that NVDA rug pull etc…

Without this forum and the wonderful team we have here dog would just be eating dry food now.

Best thing I have ever done in my trading career is to the parts of this amazing group

 

[chillerjt]

Yes, you are right. It's been discussed here ad nauseum. No one believes me, and that's ok. Greeks are not hocus-pocus. They are just another TA tool, much like EW, channels, fibs, etc.

No one can predict direction. Why? Because it's a casino. You roll dice and it's always 50-50 on roulette black or red.

Thursday, we're red.
View attachment 1050423

Friday, we're green.
View attachment 1050424

So we can't predict direction - up or down depends on macros and MM's games.

But we can predict range, and that's way more than good enough. Yes, with enough capital and good risk management, that's rly more than enough to make a living on. What do i mean with range? That's your major supp/res. That's your 1σ. That's your 16Δ. Additionally, there's 3 helpers to add confluence: "vanna + gamma + OI"

Excluding OTM, you can tell from OI where everyone's bet is at. Lowest tall put and Highest tall call. That's your 1st clue. (Why bother with knowing bullseye, unless you're knee-deep in Straddles or flying too close to the sun?)

For TSLA, that means 150-200. There's a lot of strategies one can use to make money off that info. (Premiums too low? That's another story. But you got your range.)

View attachment 1050454

Your 2nd clue is gamma. Gamma is most useful as we approach 0dte especially if it aligns with large OI walls. Far from expiration it is a range, closer to expiration it becomes probable magnet - tallest is "strongest wifi". Gamma is positioning of market participants (you, me, institutions) at any given time. If there is a cluster of gammas, it is likely to be magnet, especially the tallest. It doesn't necessarily mean tall gammas are supp/res since sp might slide through them, but they are magnets so it's approx below or above the wall. For tall +gammas, dealers will buy stock as price approaches it from below and sell stock as price passes it to cap the upside. For tall -gammas, dealers will sell stock as price approaches it from above and buy stock as price passes it to cap the downside. Gamma squeezes are more likely to happen on Fridays. If -gex is below spot, selling would accelerate (-gex is magnet). If -gex is above spot, buying would accelerate (-gex is magnet).

I noticed that SMCI/NVDA doesn't respect gamma walls. Their weight/pull is too strong.

Your 3rd clue is vanna. Vanna doesn't behave like gamma and it is most accurate ~20Δ. That means you can't look at a vanna chart and see a far OTM strike and think that's going to be the bullseye close. Very tall vanna tends to be more like "solid walls you can't cross". Treat vanna as range that dealers prefer. The closer we are to OpEx, the more powerful this greek is because stocks are more volatile and vanna reacts to IV changes. Since vanna detects change in volatility, it is strongest on the last 2 weeks of OpEx aka vixpiration. Vanna is always a range, you can't bullseye it.

+vanna (green) above/below spot = magnet

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be pulled into +vex below spot (dealers selling towards +vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be pulled into +vex above spot (dealers buying towards +vex)

-vanna (red) above/below spot = repellant

• if price is dropping and IV is rising, sp will be repelled by -vex below spot (dealers buying away from -vex)
• if price is rising and IV is dropping, sp will be repelled by -vex above spot (dealers selling away from -vex)
• if -vex is below spot and price is dropping, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is support)
• if -vex is above spot and price is rising, -vex becomes repellant (-vex is resistance)

OK, that was a handful. Let's see a very good example.

March 7, Thursday 8:55pm. NVDA vanna suspiciously has a terrifying large cluster of reds 880-900 for next day Friday close. But gamma says 950 is tallest magnet (ie Friday close is a little bit below or above 950). Who to believe? I trust vanna more than gamma. Vanna is MM/dealer positioning. Gamma is retail/institutional positioning. So that night, i posted "agree! NVDA is overdue for correction, nothing goes up forever".

View attachment 1050435

March 8, Friday. NVDA climbed +19 PM to open at 950 just like gamma predicted (it was a magnet). Then vanna took over to crash the stock. Vanna is dealer preference. It is their "grand total positioning" to remain neutral.

View attachment 1050439

my bet was -p840
View attachment 1050458

That's what i meant by "vanna + gamma + OI". I look at those walls and make a guess range. Seeing 880-950, my 840 was below the walls.

Bookmark this, coz if i have to explain it again one more time...

In other news, leave me alone imma busyyyyyyyyy
View attachment 1050463

Thanks. Extremely useful writeup. Definitely bookmarked.

Need advice on which kdrama to watch after Queen of Tears. Thanks.