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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Would love to hear people's input on:
- what's your weekly % gain ? (in relation to TSLA holding or account balance - no detailed numbers required)
- what's your weekly % gain goal? How often do you hit or miss it?
- what's the strat you generally use (of course most will do X when stock is high, Y when stock is low, etc. A mix is indeed the most fitting IMO).

@dl003 , thanks for sharing in such detail. Gives me plenty to think about.

Naked shorting to the extent you are doing is just impossible with my broker, so I don't even have to open that can of worms mentally. It does however prevent me from larger gains. Oh well, it means I do have a safety net, which is fine since I am more risk averse than you (apparently, no judgement).

So basically I'll be happy to try and get 0,3-0,5% per week, which is still huge compared to the bank. And keep a bigger cash reserve to sell puts against.

Next step in my re-evaluation of my weekly shorts is: why sell put spreads instead of just selling puts and letting them assign/rolling them ? It seems to me the bought put is wasted $$ most of the time.

I've seen others taking a stab at how they get to 1%/week. Here's how I go about it, at least to get into the ball park.

Assuming a $1M account (I set one of these up back in April, so this isn't completely theoretical) my original target was to be roughly 1/2 cash and 1/2 shares, and use those amounts to own shares and sell cash secured puts. In the actual case this is an IRA so that was my actual restriction. Setting that up today I'd be able to buy ~700 shares ($490k) and sell 7 or 8 csp (say $680 strike, thus reserving $544k for 8 of the 680 strike).

Let's pretend that I'm not a little bit short and I can sell all 15 of those positions. On $1M, 1% is $10k. To earn $10k on 15 positions is an average of $7 earnings ($700 * 15) on each of those. Ok - that's going to be sort of a stretch.


As I've been learning from others and from my own experience, that position setup has morphed. I was still targeting 50/50 though that has begun drifting more towards 40 (shares) / 60 (cash / puts). I have also changed from shares and csp, to lcc and bps. This shift has introduced leverage into the account that isn't dependent on margin (it's not available to me in the IRA, and I like to stay away from margin anyway).

On the shares side, I buy long duration calls that are DITM to various degrees, and sell short duration calls against those. I want ~40-50% of the account value in these leaps. So I might be buying the June 2023 500 strike calls today ($305 each). To select this particular option I'm looking for something really long duration (thought there are good reasons to use shorter duration), I want to minimize the time value I'm paying for (around $100 on these), and I'd like to get somewhere around 2 leaps for the cost of 100 shares maybe up to 3 for 1 or 5 for 2. I don't want a lot more leverage than this as I don't want to create too much volatility in the account.

At $305/share or $30.5k per contract I can buy around 15 of these for $450k (which means that I'll be able to sell 15 covered calls instead of 7). If I did want more leverage then I wouldn't get any closer than the 600 strike at $250 each. I think that we're unlikely to see $600 again and I like being another $100 away from that, but if I did come up to $600 each then I'll be able to buy ~20 at $25k each for $500k of the $1M.

Let's stick with 16 of the 500 strike for $480k.


On the put side I've been using $100 spread size put credit spreads (aka bull put spread, aka BPS). Each of these will need $10k as backing, so I can open 50 of these using the remaining $500k. This is one reason I'm starting to shift to $150 or $200 spread sizes - significantly better management available, and it cuts my # of positions back so that losses don't accumulate so fast (the gains are accumulating plenty fast). Using $200 backing, I'll need $20k per spread, so 25 spreads using the other half of the account.

BTW, at least at Fidelity, to make the BPS work in an IRA, I needed to get L2 options authorization, along with Spread Trading and Margin. In an IRA the spread trading was an incremental permission. The Margin setup in an IRA is only for trading using unsettled cash - not margin as we otherwise think of it. So when I trade a position I don't need to wait 3 days for the funds to settle and use them for something else.


Overall that sets me up to sell 16 calls and 25 puts or 41 total positions. To achieve $10k/week I need each position to earn $2.50 each week.

One thing that makes this easier to achieve is that when selling calls against the leaps I am far more ready and willing to take assignment on cc that go ITM. I think of the earnings from leap buy/sell as an incremental source of income, and that's what I'm in this to accomplish at this point. I would like to avoid assignment so I get all of the (leveraged) move up in the shares, but I'm also willing to miss out on some or a lot for the income now.

I also have a lot of flexibility in the ratios because of how much leverage there is in the put side. I might do something closer to $600k worth of leaps (20 of those now) and then sell 40 of the $100 spread size BPS for example. In fact I'll make adjustments to these ratios on a slower pace - quarterly? - as the shares go up and down and I develop a more intermediate term bias on where the shares are going. If I think the shares are going down then a few more BPS and a few less calls is probably a good idea. If I think the shares are going up, then a few more shares (leaps) and a few less BPS, is probably a good idea. This is tinkering around the edges - 20 leaps instead of 15 kind of scale.

That's how I get to 1%/week, even in an IRA or other account with no margin available. In practice I'm finding that I can beat that 1% pretty handily through a combination of more aggressive positions than $2.50 each week plus aggressive / early closes. The early close pattern is to close calls on a down day (while opening BPS), and closing the BPS on up days (while opening CC). The theme is to open into strength, and leads to mostly having either calls or puts open at a time, but not both. I actually having both open at the same time, but I'm mostly finding that a good entry for one is a good exit for the other.


My own larger target isn't a % - it's $10k/week, in 40 weeks of the year. I want to have 'permission' from myself to be completely out of the market for 3 weeks each quarter if I want to. Delivery / earnings comes to mind as a period I might want to be out. So far this is coming out better than I've described but 40% in a year sounds well beyond ok to me :)
 
Having laid all that out, I do have a worry about what happens if a lot of us start doing this regularly. For example I've currently sold 3.6% of the $720 call open interest expiring today. We generally assume that it is the MM doing most of the call selling and that they manipulate the stock to their advantage. However it wouldn't take that many people doing what I'm doing before the MM are in the minority for sold options at certain strikes. What happens if they become aware of that? Do they then start manipulating in the opposite direction and this whole strategy falls apart??
For the final question - yes. If we're doing enough of this to move the market, then we can be confident that the MM will make use of that information and figure out how to trade against us for their incremental gain.

I tend to think that what we're doing scales into the low millions for individual accounts, but won't scale well into the low 10's of millions. That's not based on actual knowledge - just my own gut feel.

I.e. if instead of the $1M account I just detailed, I were to scale that all up by 10x to a $10M account, I think it'll start getting more interesting getting into and out of positions. And if there were enough $10M accounts trading, then yeah - the MMs will start seeing the trading patterns and be looking for ways to lighten up those accounts to their benefit.


it's an interesting observation and something to be thinking about for me as well. My intent doing this is that I want to have a process, trading strategy, and approach that I can imagine doing 10 years from today - not just this month / quarter / year.
 
Interesting comments. I’d like to see some graphs on daily Max Pain figures for a bunch of dates going back 3 weeks prior to the date to see how it tracks vs. eventual closing price. Maybe I can get around to compiling some data.

As for my strategy and returns targets, there’s a lot of explanation in prior posts above, but I own shares and long-term LEAPS for which I don’t have specific appreciation targets, just let them ride, and sell covered calls primarily weeklies for income. Targets for that are 2%/month at current price levels, and I’m not sure if that will hold as the shares rise, I mostly have a $/month and $/year target in mind. Haven’t decided if I’ll get more cautious as shares rise, whether choosing to or being forced to, and whether I’ll pare back total shares exposure at higher SP.
Hey Jim, this site has some historical: Swaggy Stocks

My main observation is that MM's are less inclined to defend puts than calls, which skew things a bit, then we get days when buying pressure overrules, and finally, MP is not so much an absolute number, the chart often paints a different picture and the actual value is more a range of probabilities...
 
I've detailed what I'm doing here a few times but most of it is selling IC's against maintenance margin excess liquidity. I do sell CC, BPS and BCS but the vast majority of premiums come from IC's. I have less total shares than your example above but for example this week I've sold the following options across my two accounts:

351 x 650/670 720/740(or 770) IC for total premiums of $160,175
65 x 720/740 BCS for total premiums of $21,250
20 x CC for total premiums of $9,950
Total premiums this week: $191,375

I know it sounds crazy, it does to me, but it is what it is. At the moment I'm just testing things out before I retire and start shifting a lot of cash from Wall St to more deserving non-profits and charities.
Are these expiring today or next week? I'm assuming weeklies but I have no clue.
 
So, do you folks selling 9/3 calls today not think the stock is going to pop on Monday? I'm sort of assuming I'd do better to sell during a pop Monday than during the end-of-week suppression today. (Or are you saving to potentially sell more on Monday as well?)

For me, I do what I tell others when they ask, "should I buy TSLA even at this price?":
- time in the market is better than timing the market. Get your foot in the door first and then add to the position if the market gives you the opportunity.

I've sold a few 9/3 call options to get my foot in the door, but have some shares held back in case it pops bigger on monday and I can sell more of the same covered calls for a higher premium.

Sept 17th is triple witching, and max pain seems to say 640, but the open interest seems to say 700. I'm considering selling 9/17 720c.
 
Thank you for your response. How much margin does the IC use vs. a BPS? How do the two legs of the IC balance each other off (since they both can’t end up as losing positions) to reduce margin relative to each leg individually? In your first example (650/670 and 720/740), each of those separately should tie up $20 of “margin” each for $40 total (ignoring covered calls and % margin requirements). How much does having them together in an IC reduce the margin needs? Maybe it’s $20 since that is the maximum loss.

I haven’t done spreads/IC’s yet because my online platform doesn’t allow it. I have to phone a broker to do them and I am too busy/lazy to do that so far. I have only been doing naked put sales and covered calls so far but your results are very impressive so it is probably worth it.

My concern with doing your strategy would be when (not if) TSLA makes a big move you would be looking at a massive loss (like $700K in your first example). WhT would your strategy be to roll the losing leg? Wait until close to expiry or do it early before the loss gets too big?
I usually target around $2500AU maintenance margin for an IC, so about $1800US but it can be higher depending on the spread. Then I try to keep around 50-60% of the excess liquidity in reserve to account for swings in margin impact leading to expiry and also to repair any positions.

I posted the table below a week or so ago that compares the margin impact of different options. I believe the margin here is in $AU but the revenue will be in $US (just how IB shows it to me).

OptionNumberPremiumRevenueMM ImpactTSLA Value UsedAnnual ReturnTSLA 30% GainTotal Gain paAnnual Return
IC - 650/680 740/770
31.1​
$4.50​
$13,984​
$100,000​
$150,150​
484%​
$45,045​
$772,205​
514%​
BPS - 650/680
27.9​
$1.80​
$5,017​
$100,000​
$150,150​
174%​
$45,045​
$305,946​
204%​
Put - 680
2.3​
$2.60​
$596​
$100,000​
$150,150​
21%​
$45,045​
$76,055​
51%​
Put - 680 Cash Secured
1.0​
$2.60​
$260​
$43,599​
$68,000​
20%​
$20,400​
$33,920​
50%​
Strangle - 680 740
2.3​
$5.15​
$1,196​
$100,000​
$150,150​
41%​
$45,045​
$107,262​
71%​

The margin buffer is there for a big move in the stock and if I have to I will roll out a week. If there's plenty of margin I can also roll within the week to a more favourable spread with increased numbers sold at the same total premium. I have been in the position of rolling say 50+ ITM BPS and with these you need to roll earlier in the week or else widen the spread for more margin to avoid a debit roll. The BCS side doesn't seem to have the same difficulties with margin impact and rolling. The larger number of contracts will need more care to maintain margin etc.
 
Woah, that IC premium is fvcking crazy! So if the stock closes >670 <720 today it's all profit? And you don't even need much margin for that due to the long positions - amirite?
Correct. However IB Portfolio margin can behave a bit weird when the share price is within $5-10 of the short option price near expiry so sometimes have to close some late to manage margin buffers. But usually I can just let them expire with all premiums retained.
 
Hey Jim, this site has some historical: Swaggy Stocks

My main observation is that MM's are less inclined to defend puts than calls, which skew things a bit, then we get days when buying pressure overrules, and finally, MP is not so much an absolute number, the chart often paints a different picture and the actual value is more a range of probabilities...
Thanks, I’m in a very busy period and seem to be unable to get to my options textbook to learn about puts. But your and others’ posts are helping me start the move up that learning curve! (Btw, still holding my $710CC for today, but starting to sweat. Worst case, assignment and repuchase on limit order Mon/Tues).
 
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Woah, that IC premium is fvcking crazy! So if the stock closes >670 <720 today it's all profit? And you don't even need much margin for that due to the long positions - amirite?
Part of what keeps IC margin low is that an Iron Condor is a put credit spread matched up with a call credit spread. Simplistically - if you keep the expiration (requirement), # of contracts, and spread size the same, then you only need enough margin to cover 1 side. I.e. - using $100 spreads and the 9/3 expiration, you can open 10 of each ($100k margin) of the put AND call spreads. Or use $100k margin to have 1 or the other open.

The obvious reason being - you can't lose on both at the same time :).


Going back to my previous post about using BPS and cc, because I'm using the BPS I also have access to 'free' (margin perspective) call credit spreads. I keep thinking about opening some of these as well and keep finding the credits too small for the incremental risk. But I would open call credit spreads with a very different mentality / focus than I have for the covered calls (really distant delta / strikes) because I don't want those caught out by a big move against them.
 
Thanks, I’m in a very busy period and seem to be unable to get to my options textbook to learn about puts. But your and others’ posts are helping me start the move up that learning curve! (Btw, still holding my $710CC for today, but starting to sweat. Worst case, assignment and repuchase on limit order Mon/Tues).
A good way to start, or at least consider - sell a single contract cash secured put at a strike you think safe. Really safe :)

My first sold put in April of last year was $200 strike puts when shares were close to $400. I added some $175 strike puts soon after with shares around $375. IV was so high that I even made noticeable money (it would be like selling $350 strike puts today - uhm yeah).

But it got my toes into the water, or some skin in the game depending on the word picture you prefer. If you're like me I learn better when I'm doing something real, instead of just thinking about it.


No rush to get more aggressive - if you view this as a lifetime, or at least a long duration, activity, then whether you're doing more with puts in 1 month or 1 year doesn't really matter. What does matter of course is if you think you'll have a better overall result (time, energy, financial, stress, ...) with the puts added, or without. (My results are better, especially the emotional side, when I'm including puts - it enables me to generate income more reliably as I can earn income with moves in either direction of the shares).
 
Having laid all that out, I do have a worry about what happens if a lot of us start doing this regularly. For example I've currently sold 3.6% of the $720 call open interest expiring today. We generally assume that it is the MM doing most of the call selling and that they manipulate the stock to their advantage. However it wouldn't take that many people doing what I'm doing before the MM are in the minority for sold options at certain strikes. What happens if they become aware of that? Do they then start manipulating in the opposite direction and this whole strategy falls apart??
Wow, we have found the Market Maker, and it is us.
 
Does legging into an IC by doing a BPS then doing a Call credit spread later consistute an IC in the eyes of the brokers? I guess this should...
Yes. At least it does for me at Fidelity.

Actually in some ways it worse (better). Fidelity takes all of my positions in the account, and mashes them up to yield the lowest margin requirement. So I get long insurance puts for a BPS matched up with my long shares and stuff like that. It does minimize the margin numbers that Fidelity reports to me, but it forces me to do some math and be sure that I'm not overselling my account (too much risk) because Fidelity says I can do more than I think I can.
 
I usually target around $2500AU maintenance margin for an IC, so about $1800US but it can be higher depending on the spread. Then I try to keep around 50-60% of the excess liquidity in reserve to account for swings in margin impact leading to expiry and also to repair any positions.

I posted the table below a week or so ago that compares the margin impact of different options. I believe the margin here is in $AU but the revenue will be in $US (just how IB shows it to me).

OptionNumberPremiumRevenueMM ImpactTSLA Value UsedAnnual ReturnTSLA 30% GainTotal Gain paAnnual Return
IC - 650/680 740/770
31.1​
$4.50​
$13,984​
$100,000​
$150,150​
484%​
$45,045​
$772,205​
514%​
BPS - 650/680
27.9​
$1.80​
$5,017​
$100,000​
$150,150​
174%​
$45,045​
$305,946​
204%​
Put - 680
2.3​
$2.60​
$596​
$100,000​
$150,150​
21%​
$45,045​
$76,055​
51%​
Put - 680 Cash Secured
1.0​
$2.60​
$260​
$43,599​
$68,000​
20%​
$20,400​
$33,920​
50%​
Strangle - 680 740
2.3​
$5.15​
$1,196​
$100,000​
$150,150​
41%​
$45,045​
$107,262​
71%​

The margin buffer is there for a big move in the stock and if I have to I will roll out a week. If there's plenty of margin I can also roll within the week to a more favourable spread with increased numbers sold at the same total premium. I have been in the position of rolling say 50+ ITM BPS and with these you need to roll earlier in the week or else widen the spread for more margin to avoid a debit roll. The BCS side doesn't seem to have the same difficulties with margin impact and rolling. The larger number of contracts will need more care to maintain margin etc.

I've really appreciated your posts about ICs and after further research they finally "clicked" with me. I was doing a semi-permanent strangle before with puts and calls anyways, so ICs being the same concept, except with spreads, makes sense.

My main question is, when do you find is best timing to open? All thing equal, I think most of us try to STO -Ps and BPSs on down moves and STO -Cs and BCS's on up moves. So when you are doing both at the same time, is there a rule of thumb? My hunch is that the put leg provides most of the premium so it would still be better to open the IC on down moves.

Also: this thread is a goldmine of info today!
 
It's a nice up day, and up days mean its time to consider STO calls, and BTC puts (at least for me).

Closed out the remaining 'recovery' BPS. The particular one I'll report on here started life as a 575/675 for Aug 20 expiration.

It turned into a 575/675 for Aug 27 expiration (1/2) PLUS 560/660 and 590/690 for Sep 3 expiration (the other half).

I was testing out a few different ideas in this roll. The front half (575/675 Aug 27 expire) was closed earlier in the week at a good point, leaving the 9/3's for today.

These 9/3s were rolled with 2 different ideas in mind. The ones I rolled to 560/660 were the larger chunk of the half, with the theme of "minimum net credit, max strike improvement". The smaller chunk was "roll to a strike, even ITM, that I thought would be safe; and get a really nice credit". Both worked out well - all of these rolls have.


The original position opened Aug 16 for Aug 20 expiration (11 days old at this point through the rolls) has netted about $6/share profit. This is on the high side of my target but not outrageously so. This position went through a point in time where it showed a roughly $12/share loss (wasn't that fun - not), but the rolling for time at strikes that looked good to me gets me out quite nicely.

BTW - this detailed level of look back is afforded me by tracking trades via Wingman. I never had this level of detail in my spreadsheet and was losing the will to record each trade individually. I only started using it back at the beginning of June. I know with confidence that I'm never going back.


Still thinking about 9/3 calls. If the shares go up noticeablye more today then I'll probably act. Main decision right now is to wait to see what happens on Monday and open (or not) calls then.
 
I've really appreciated your posts about ICs and after further research they finally "clicked" with me. I was doing a semi-permanent strangle before with puts and calls anyways, so ICs being the same concept, except with spreads, makes sense.

My main question is, when do you find is best timing to open? All thing equal, I think most of us try to STO -Ps and BPSs on down moves and STO -Cs and BCS's on up moves. So when you are doing both at the same time, is there a rule of thumb? My hunch is that the put leg provides most of the premium so it would still be better to open the IC on down moves.

Also: this thread is a goldmine of info today!
With my broker it only shows as an IC if I sell both sides at once and won't combine BPS/BCS later, so I generally sell IC's.

I've been burnt before selling IC's too early and I find that if I wait till around Tues/Wed I can get a better fix on the options O/I graph and where it's saying the likely expiry price range will be. Then I can set my IC range behind decent put/call walls and vary the spread sizes to suit my target premium and margin ranges. The number of contracts sold is based on the amount of excess liquidity I plan to use.

The premium you get for an IC will be lowest when the share price is in the middle between the short put and call. So ideally I like to STO the IC's on a dip or rise that puts it closer to one side expecting it to move back towards the centre. My favourite time to open them (and the best premium) is when a dip occurs close to the short put side that I expect will move back up and stay well within the range to expiry.