Out of all the things he's done, just in this thread alone, the house renovation intrigues you?Wait, you are renovating a house? First I've heard of it.
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Out of all the things he's done, just in this thread alone, the house renovation intrigues you?Wait, you are renovating a house? First I've heard of it.
I’m curious as to how he intends on decorating.Out of all the things he's done, just in this thread alone, the house renovation intrigues you?
I appreciate everything that you have added to this thread. However, this statement has me completely flummoxed. Just give me a price and date. Thanks.A lot of my friends are buying into the notion that we're entering a deep market correction. I don't, but I do entertain the idea. The brick wall, dubbed by James Stephenson on Twitter, or simply put, the upward trendline set since March 2020, has been supporting TSLA through the worst of it: 2020 September tech crash and the March 2021 correction. That trendline is only $40-50 below where we are today and it doesn't take much for TSLA to break below that. With its beta, the QQQ only needs to correct 5% for TSLA to do so. With its fundamentals stronger than ever, I wonder if TSLA is gonna be held up by the invisible hands through a correction. Worst case scenario, I see us briefly dip below for a day or two before bouncing off the upward sloping 200 DMA @ 620.
max pain is below James Stephenson's bullish trend line.Regarding the 1450 call, I'm just seeing if small very high calls can have an impact on max pain. I doubt it and I think you or someone wrote up on how the market makers have to cover, based on some model of risk, based on odds of hitting the strike. Undoubtedly just $5.00 wasted, but I'm disappointed max pain is somehow staying below 700. If anyone wants to join me though, maybe a few hundred 1450 calls will push max pain up.
On the BPS, I like the $10 spread, I think I get the most profit opportunity, but it is higher risk than a 20 or 50 point spread and doing fewer contracts. I generally stay far enough OTM to avoid having to roll, with the week before last being an exception. So a little higher risk, but I can make more selling 10 650-640 BPS, versus 5 650-630 BPS. I've set aside more money for margin lately, so maybe I'll try to 20 or 50 point spread coming up, if I think the odds of a decline increase. The profit is very small on the 600-550, but I need more cash to move up to the next 100 share increment, when I can sell more covered calls.
Of note, tomorrow the golden cross and the max pain is below James Stephenson's bullish trend line. If we maintain both, we should have a breakout next week.
31.5 | 0 | - | 9,308 | 2,592 | 670 | 0.67 | 0 | - | 10,135 | 9,576 | -6,984 | |
25.45 | 0 | - | 753 | 1852 | 675 | 0.74 | 0 | - | 8,123 | 6,645 | -4,793 | |
21.9 | 0 | - | 15,634 | 7,624 | 680 | 0.91 | 0 | - | 15,406 | 12,577 | -4,953 | |
17.25 | 0 | - | 433 | 2,891 | 685 | 1.24 | 0 | - | 8,545 | 3,461 | -570 | |
12.86 | 0 | - | 4,146 | 3604 | 690 | 1.7 | 0 | - | 18,749 | 5,203 | -1,599 | |
8.95 | 0 | - | 2,109 | 2,519 | 695 | 2.7 | 0 | - | 8,448 | 4,975 | -2,456 | |
7.25 | 0 | - | 2,906 | 1,897 | 697.5 | 3.45 | 0 | - | 6,123 | 1,939 | -42 | |
5.6 | 0 | - | 29,194 | 12,878 | 700 | 4.4 | 0 | - | 54,947 | 13,280 | -402 | |
4.25 | 0 | - | 9,531 | 3,197 | 702.5 | 5.45 | 0 | - | 7,764 | 1,477 | 1,720 | |
3.22 | 0 | - | 27,851 | 4138 | 705 | 7.01 | 0 | - | 28,896 | 2,376 | 1,762 | |
2.38 | 0 | - | 14,472 | 3,883 | 707.5 | 8.55 | 0 | - | 6,499 | 965 | 2,918 | |
1.74 | 0 | - | 54,460 | 13326 | 710 | 10.5 | 0 | - | 30,876 | 5,157 | 8,169 | |
1.27 | 0 | - | 13,841 | 2926 | 712.5 | 12.6 | 0 | - | 5,123 | 1,272 | 1,654 | |
0.9 | 0 | - | 34,393 | 7281 | 715 | 14.8 | 0 | - | 4,372 | 1,507 | 5,774 | |
0.62 | 0 | - | 5,159 | 2,338 | 717.5 | 17.75 | 0 | - | 1,127 | 656 | 1,682 | |
0.49 | 0 | - | 45,507 | 12115 | 720 | 19.3 | 0 | - | 2,158 | 4,637 | 7,478 | |
0.29 | 0 | - | 20,472 | 9101 | 725 | 24.22 | 0 | - | 819 | 426 | 8,675 | |
0.2 | 0 | - | 29,954 | 13612 | 730 | 29.28 | 0 | - | 786 | 1,140 | 12,472 |
tos allows backtesting, but maybe only up to 2009:Does anyone know of software to do back testing on? (Does TOS do it?) I want to backtest 2000-2002 on spy what some of us are doing on tsla now to see how it turns out. And by that I mean ~50% shares, 50% DITM LEAP calls, selling weekly calls against all of those and selling put spreads with 20-40% of the margin.
I chose this time frame because I figure that is about as bad as it could get.
@dl003 , in reference to your post in the main investor thread regarding 1% gain on your capital per week.
I've read this figure here and there in this thread, but when looking at my personal returns, they are much less than that.
I'f I'm really conservative / safe selling cc's (aka shitcalls), I get 0,1% - 0,15% gain on capital weekly.
Recent weeks I'm more agressive with some cc's, but leaving others non-agressive to allow me to take profits on the non-agressive cc's and have the opportunity to roll the agressive cc's to multiple contracts (should the stock shoot up). This nets me around 0,3%-0,4% gain on capital.
If I were to gain 1% on my capital, I'd have to be crazy agressive on almost all my positions and then be lucky/skillfull enough not to have to roll (since that cancels out the gain of that week and moves it to the week after that, IF the stock corrects. Worst case I'm chasing that 1% gain for weeks till I catch up to the SP with my rolls.)
I have read most of this thread and am up to speed on the various tactics (BPS/ BCS / IC's / cc's / lcc's / ccp's / lcp's / ...) but could you elaborate if you're truly getting 1% gain each week? And if so, what is the general strategy?
Currently I'm only selling cc's since my cash is tied up mostly as margin for longer term sold puts (march 2022 and JUN2023). The premiums received from those puts largely went into LEAPS, leaving me to have to "rebuild" a cash balance with selling cc's.
I've been thinking of letting some shares get assigned after selling agressive cc's (@Lycanthrope style) and then using that money to sell puts against. After all, I hear puts is the backbone and cc's are the gravy/beer money. But in case of a 2020 climb I can't imagine ever catching up to the SP.
Would love to hear people's input on:
- what's your weekly % gain ? (in relation to TSLA holding or account balance - no detailed numbers required)
- what's your weekly % gain goal? How often do you hit or miss it?
- what's the strat you generally use (of course most will do X when stock is high, Y when stock is low, etc. A mix is indeed the most fitting IMO).
EDIT: went over the numbers. To get a 1% return on TSLA stock by selling cc's you'd have to go for premiums of $7. Which is crazy agressive.
Sigh. Sure you want to see what's inside the circus? Ok, here we go. A picture is worth a thousand words and what not.@dl003 , in reference to your post in the main investor thread regarding 1% gain on your capital per week.
I've read this figure here and there in this thread, but when looking at my personal returns, they are much less than that.
I'f I'm really conservative / safe selling cc's (aka shitcalls), I get 0,1% - 0,15% gain on capital weekly.
Recent weeks I'm more agressive with some cc's, but leaving others non-agressive to allow me to take profits on the non-agressive cc's and have the opportunity to roll the agressive cc's to multiple contracts (should the stock shoot up). This nets me around 0,3%-0,4% gain on capital.
If I were to gain 1% on my capital, I'd have to be crazy agressive on almost all my positions and then be lucky/skillfull enough not to have to roll (since that cancels out the gain of that week and moves it to the week after that, IF the stock corrects. Worst case I'm chasing that 1% gain for weeks till I catch up to the SP with my rolls.)
I have read most of this thread and am up to speed on the various tactics (BPS/ BCS / IC's / cc's / lcc's / ccp's / lcp's / ...) but could you elaborate if you're truly getting 1% gain each week? And if so, what is the general strategy?
Currently I'm only selling cc's since my cash is tied up mostly as margin for longer term sold puts (march 2022 and JUN2023). The premiums received from those puts largely went into LEAPS, leaving me to have to "rebuild" a cash balance with selling cc's.
I've been thinking of letting some shares get assigned after selling agressive cc's (@Lycanthrope style) and then using that money to sell puts against. After all, I hear puts is the backbone and cc's are the gravy/beer money. But in case of a 2020 climb I can't imagine ever catching up to the SP.
Would love to hear people's input on:
- what's your weekly % gain ? (in relation to TSLA holding or account balance - no detailed numbers required)
- what's your weekly % gain goal? How often do you hit or miss it?
- what's the strat you generally use (of course most will do X when stock is high, Y when stock is low, etc. A mix is indeed the most fitting IMO).
EDIT: went over the numbers. To get a 1% return on TSLA stock by selling cc's you'd have to go for premiums of $7. Which is crazy agressive.
I've tried a few things, but my main strat now is stock, leaps spreads, and weekly put credit spreads. I use way too much buying power for my credit spreads so I wouldn't recommend that, but I'm averaging 3% ish return per week (10% return on the trades). For the weeks I need to roll, I sell more spreads near ATM at the new expiration date which is why you see the big up ticks after rollingWould love to hear people's input on:
- what's your weekly % gain ? (in relation to TSLA holding or account balance - no detailed numbers required)
- what's your weekly % gain goal? How often do you hit or miss it?
- what's the strat you generally use (of course most will do X when stock is high, Y when stock is low, etc. A mix is indeed the most fitting IMO).
I want the the bought put to be a waste of money. Just like i want my car insurance to be a waste pf money.@dl003 , thanks for sharing in such detail. Gives me plenty to think about.
Naked shorting to the extent you are doing is just impossible with my broker, so I don't even have to open that can of worms mentally. It does however prevent me from larger gains. Oh well, it means I do have a safety net, which is fine since I am more risk averse than you (apparently, no judgement).
So basically I'll be happy to try and get 0,3-0,5% per week, which is still huge compared to the bank. And keep a bigger cash reserve to sell puts against.
Next step in my re-evaluation of my weekly shorts is: why sell put spreads instead of just selling puts and letting them assign/rolling them ? It seems to me the bought put is wasted $$ most of the time.
My current weekly gain is around 3-5% against total account capital/liquidity but was less before I got things properly worked out. I have achieved 7% but that was pushing it or just a crazy week to trade. My target is 5% and I see this being achievable unless I hit a bad week and then need a recovery week. I could achieve more if I didn't have mostly shares in the accounts as only about 1/3 of the share value gets released as excess liquidity that I can actually trade against.Would love to hear people's input on:
- what's your weekly % gain ? (in relation to TSLA holding or account balance - no detailed numbers required)
- what's your weekly % gain goal? How often do you hit or miss it?
- what's the strat you generally use (of course most will do X when stock is high, Y when stock is low, etc. A mix is indeed the most fitting IMO).
EDIT: went over the numbers. To get a 1% return on TSLA stock by selling cc's you'd have to go for premiums of $7. Which is crazy agressive.
I'm at play this week with open calls and puts, but I'm also looking ahead and I see this huge call wall for 9/17 expiry.
This is the biggest wall I've seen in a while and am wondering what others think this means (if anything).
It is interesting that it is at $700 and could have been opened at anytime, but that it remains is something amazing to me as it is so high.
Both 9/10 and 9/23 are very small relatively and seem normal.
View attachment 702073
You think 46.000 calls @$700 expiring 09/17/2021 is a lot?I'm at play this week with open calls and puts, but I'm also looking ahead and I see this huge call wall for 9/17 expiry.
This is the biggest wall I've seen in a while and am wondering what others think this means (if anything).
It is interesting that it is at $700 and could have been opened at anytime, but that it remains is something amazing to me as it is so high.
Both 9/10 and 9/23 are very small relatively and seem normal.
View attachment 702073