Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

FWIW all my "close at 90% profit" orders on various 1100 and 1150 calls for 4/22 filled today so I'm fresh outta short calls now.

Only thing still open into next week are some put spreads, -1000/+750 in one account, -1000/+700 in another. Don't love todays dip for these, but they're wide enough they should be pretty manageable if management turns out to be needed.

 

[Yoona]

Friday is crunch time. This is where money finally meets my purse. After 4 days of manipulation, plus the Fri pre-market positioning, one would suspect the Fri Open is well-positioned to be near the Fri Close target.

It turns out that in 2022, the Fri Close is about -6% to +4% of Fri Open. Good to know in case i need to adjust my strike.

For ex, if Fri Open is 1000 then Close is about 940-1040.

In the last 200 Fridays, the Fri Close is about -8% to 11% of Fri Open. Visually, it's more like -5 to +5.

View attachment 791177

NOT ADVICE

These last 4 Fridays are even more interesting. (Today is a "Friday" for reporting purposes since tomorrow is holiday).

The difference between Fri Close and Fri Open are only -1.07% to +0.32%. It's too much coincidence for a $1000 volatile stock to deviate less than 2% after whole day of trading. Repeat 4 consecutive weeks.

I interpret that to mean: whatever is the Fri Open is pretty much going to be almost the Fri Close. Translation: the Fri Open is MM's suggested closing price and they will work to protect it?

magnified look:

Data:

Time to brush up on Iron Butterfly and Short Straddle...

 

[AquaY]

These last 4 Fridays are even more interesting. (Today is a "Friday" for reporting purposes since tomorrow is holiday).

The difference between Fri Close and Fri Open are only -1.07% to +0.32%. It's too much coincidence for a $1000 volatile stock to deviate less than 2% after whole day of trading. Repeat 4 consecutive weeks.

I interpret that to mean: whatever is the Fri Open is pretty much going to be almost the Fri Close. Translation: the Fri Open is MM's suggested closing price and they will work to protect it?

View attachment 793741

magnified look:
View attachment 793742

Data:
View attachment 793748

Time to brush up on Iron Butterfly and Short Straddle...

interesting.
Did you review the previous Tuesday to next Friday data by any chance?

















i

 

[Buckminster]

Finally made elective professional client (equivalent to accredited investor). Sold some weekly puts and bought LEAPS. Margin is a wonderful thing - only using 10% for the sold puts. #backinthegame

Did I miss anything here?

 

[Knightshade]

FWIW all my "close at 90% profit" orders on various 1100 and 1150 calls for 4/22 filled today so I'm fresh outta short calls now.

Only thing still open into next week are some put spreads, -1000/+750 in one account, -1000/+700 in another. Don't love todays dip for these, but they're wide enough they should be pretty manageable if management turns out to be needed.

FYI rumors overnight being fairly widely reported now of GigaShanghai starting back up next week-- once again I accidentally look smart in hindsight!

Tesla looks to resume production at Shanghai plant on April 18

Tesla is preparing to resume production at its Shanghai plant on Monday following a three-week stoppage, having received the go-ahead from local authorities, two people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

 

[BornToFly]

FYI rumors overnight being fairly widely reported now of GigaShanghai starting back up next week-- once again I accidentally look smart in hindsight!

Tesla looks to resume production at Shanghai plant on April 18

Tesla is preparing to resume production at its Shanghai plant on Monday following a three-week stoppage, having received the go-ahead from local authorities, two people familiar with the matter said.

www.reuters.com

Best case for us - earnings on Wednesday blow Wall Street estimates out of the water, AND on the call Tesla team says that they can make up the 3 week production loss at Shanghai over the remaining quarter. If that happens, new ATH possible this month....

 

[LightngMcQueen]

These last 4 Fridays are even more interesting. (Today is a "Friday" for reporting purposes since tomorrow is holiday).

Time to brush up on Iron Butterfly and Short Straddle...

Something that you can overlay on top of spreadsheet data is Oraclum's BASON prediction.

This is a weekly stock prediction competition/experiment that includes TSLA and several indexes. It uses quite statistically sophisticated method of crowd sourced, credibility weighted data gathering. The researchers have used same model to predict election and Brexit results with surprisingly good accuracy.

Game then uses crowdsourced predictions to set up best probability Iron Condor for the weeklies.
So far track record is rather good: 145% in 32 weeks although obviously it may not last.

32 weeks of predicting markets: 145% return

The competition for Q2 2022 is already back on!

oraclum.substack.com

If you submit your prediction on Tue, you will be receive email with prediction on Wednesday morning.

 

[Drezil]

Something that you can overlay on top of spreadsheet data is Oraclum's BASON prediction.

This is a weekly stock prediction competition/experiment that includes TSLA and several indexes. It uses quite statistically sophisticated method of crowd sourced, credibility weighted data gathering. The researchers have used same model to predict election and Brexit results with surprisingly good accuracy.

Game then uses crowdsourced predictions to set up best probability Iron Condor for the weeklies.
So far track record is rather good: 145% in 32 weeks although obviously it may not last.

32 weeks of predicting markets: 145% return

The competition for Q2 2022 is already back on!

oraclum.substack.com

If you submit your prediction on Tue, you will be receive email with prediction on Wednesday morning.

Very, very interesting. Signed up and will take a look ...

Thanks for sharing with us!

 

[Yoona]

interesting.
Did you review the previous Tuesday to next Friday data by any chance?
i

 

[Yoona]

it's earnings week and everyone is hopefully super excited

just a reminder... don't forget the January sp headfake; managing risk is important to success... it's really way, way better to have a $1 profit than a $10 loss so emotional control and discipline are needed... market doesn't care about you, and you are just a number so be prepared accordingly

follow your rules and stick to the plan

and keep in mind there are 8(?) upcoming Fed increases this year

i have no positions next week... daytrading only and i think i am getting better and better at it; last week was 3/3 wins

one thing that helps me is the chart below; as long as i set my peak as (for example) open+10 and my dip as open-10, i make $$$; there will be intraday loss because of sp swings but it almost always works out by dayend...

for ex, if Open is 1000 then i buy stock at 990 and sell at 1010, or i STO options at 1010 and BTC 990

if playing with 100 shares, then 20x100=$2k/day is not bad at all

not advice!

 

[Chicagoguy]

it's earnings week and everyone is hopefully super excited

just a reminder... don't forget the January sp headfake; managing risk is important to success... it's really way, way better to have a $1 profit than a $10 loss so emotional control and discipline are needed... market doesn't care about you, and you are just a number so be prepared accordingly

follow your rules and stick to the plan
View attachment 794266

and keep in mind there are 8(?) upcoming Fed increases this year

i have no positions next week... daytrading only and i think i am getting better and better at it; last week was 3/3 wins

one thing that helps me is the chart below; as long as i set my peak as (for example) open+10 and my dip as open-10, i make $$$; there will be intraday loss because of sp swings but it almost always works out by dayend...

for ex, if Open is 1000 then i buy stock at 990 and sell at 1010, or i STO options at 1010 and BTC 990

if playing with 100 shares, then 20x100=$2k/day is not bad at all

not advice!

View attachment 794265

how did you decide your entries for the 3 wins you had this week? What made you enter on those trades and skip other days in the week?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

it's earnings week and everyone is hopefully super excited

just a reminder... don't forget the January sp headfake; managing risk is important to success... it's really way, way better to have a $1 profit than a $10 loss so emotional control and discipline are needed... market doesn't care about you, and you are just a number so be prepared accordingly

follow your rules and stick to the plan
View attachment 794266

and keep in mind there are 8(?) upcoming Fed increases this year

i have no positions next week... daytrading only and i think i am getting better and better at it; last week was 3/3 wins

one thing that helps me is the chart below; as long as i set my peak as (for example) open+10 and my dip as open-10, i make $$$; there will be intraday loss because of sp swings but it almost always works out by dayend...

for ex, if Open is 1000 then i buy stock at 990 and sell at 1010, or i STO options at 1010 and BTC 990

if playing with 100 shares, then 20x100=$2k/day is not bad at all

not advice!

View attachment 794265

I'm not selling squat until there's significant movement one way or the other. And whichever way that is....I'll be super wary of the other direction.

My prediction if macros don't change significantly is a massive runup followed at some point by a not quite as massive reversal. It's gotta be happening on this earnings or the next. Numbers are too crazy.

 

[Yoona]

how did you decide your entries for the 3 wins you had this week? What made you enter on those trades and skip other days in the week?

oh, my "strategy" is more voodoo than science, and your guess is as good as mine

just the gambling trick of timing dips and peaks

all i know is that in the last 6 weeks, if sp is down a lot (say, -30 by around noon) then the probability is very high that the intraday bottom has been reached (so i will buy stock or STO bps with high delta and far DTE or STO -p)

i only daytrade in the morning so there is room/time for sp to reverse/breathe

 

[brianhn1]

is anyone else thinking of what i am thinking?

STO at pre-market BCS ATM, (30 DTE or longer in case market reverses quick)
then BTC at MMD for daytrade grab-and-go

or am i the last one to know about it?

Sooo you can STO a BCS pre-market? Hook a brotha up! Apparently I'm not part of this special club.

I believe you meant set a market order STO BCS ATM before market open, then snipe with a BTC at bottom of MMD. I've tried to experiment but not always successful if MMD didn't pan out.

 

[Yoona]

Sooo you can STO a BCS pre-market? Hook a brotha up! Apparently I'm not part of this special club.

I believe you meant set a market order STO BCS ATM before market open, then snipe with a BTC at bottom of MMD. I've tried to experiment but not always successful if MMD didn't pan out.

yes, that's what i meant

only works if day is expected/forecast to go downhill

(numbers made up)... if i want $5k profit (net after fees) for all my morning trouble and credit was 5, i will BTC at 4

needs a strike with high delta for quick fill, even if MMD is AWOL

 

[brianhn1]

yes, that's what i meant

only works if day is expected/forecast to go downhill

(numbers made up)... if i want $5k profit (net after fees) for all my morning trouble and credit was 5, i will BTC at 4

needs a strike with high delta for quick fill, even if MMD is AWOL

View attachment 794467

Have you used trailing stop BTC instead of limit BTC? So you can maximize the MMD or any dip to maximize profit and automagically get out after the SP turns around after a certain % or $ offset reversal up of the spread premium? You could also do a conditional where your order converts to a market BTC (eg. it continues to dip to close) before end of day to never worry about extended market movements.

I haven't used it much but I can see setting the offset too close or too far will result in it not maximizing your gains during a volatile intraday.

 

[Yoona]

The week ahead in options. Twitter, Tesla, Netflix, Snap and more.

Want to know more about upcoming earnings, trading credit spreads or managing trades? Videos, market blogs, options education and free tools from The Options AI Team

learn.optionsai.com

Monday
Bank of America BAC / Expected Move: 4.1% / Recent moves: 0%, -4%, +4%
Charles Schwab SCHW / Expected Move: 4.2% / Recent moves: -4%, +4%, -2%

Tuesday
Johnson & Johnson JNJ / Expected Move: 3.2% / Recent moves: +3%, +2%, +1%
Lockheed Martin LMT / Expected Move: 3.6% / Recent moves: +4%, -12%, -3%
Netflix NFLX / Expected Move: 8.2% / Recent moves: -22%, -2%, -3%
IBM IBM / Expected Move: 4.3% / Recent moves: +6%, -10%, +1%

Wednesday
Tesla TSLA / Expected Move: 6.2% / Recent moves: -12%, +3%, -2%
Abbot Labs ABT / Expected Move: 3.4% / Recent moves: -3%, +3%, -1%
Lam Research LRCX / Expected Move: 5.5% / Recent moves: -7%, -2%, -2%
Las Vegas Sands LVS / Expected Move: 5.6% / Recent moves: -5%, -2%, -4%

Thursday
Snap SNAP / Expected Move: 14.8% / Recent moves: +59%, -27%, -24%
American Airlines AAL / Expected Move: 5.7% / Recent moves: -3%, +2%, -1%

Friday
American Express AXP / Expected Move: 10.4% / Recent moves: +9%, +5%, +1%

 

[Tyler34]

Quiet day over here so i'll post my trade. STO 900/800 4/22 put credit spreads for $5.30 back when the share price was around $990

 

[TheTalkingMule]

How will the upcoming share split impact options? Do contracts just split alongside shares? Any rationale for closing out specific positions, spreads, etc beforehand?

 

[Tyler34]

How will the upcoming share split impact options? Do contracts just split alongside shares? Any rationale for closing out specific positions, spreads, etc beforehand?

They split as well. I wouldnt want to end up with options that arent whole numbers though because those will be less liquid. In a 10:1 split 1005 options would become 100.50 options for example. Gross