Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[CLK350]

This was my concern. Does Elon have the cash on hand to make a purchase like this?

If we have Elon selling TSLA shares / exercising options round 2, that could have a material impact on TSLA share price, again. Hopefully he would be smart enough to do it in a private sale through a broker this time.

Is there any real obstacle to Elon borrowing from Tesla's treasury, using his TSLA shares as collateral?
Again, I can't imagine Elon not having figured all this a long time ago, so here we are playing a lame guessing game again

What is going to happen short med long term to TSLA & TWTR is what we need to figure out here..

Edit: TWTR market value now is $36B, the offer is for $43B and Elon's net worth (mostly TSLA) is $265B

 

[juanmedina]

Gary says that a $43B acquisition means he needs $21.5B equity to borrow against.

 

[mongo]

This was my concern. Does Elon have the cash on hand to make a purchase like this?

If we have Elon selling TSLA shares / exercising options round 2, that could have a material impact on TSLA share price, again. Hopefully he would be smart enough to do it in a private sale through a broker this time.

Viewing shares in totality, what if he buys out the investment firm stakes via direct sales at fixed price along with excess needed for tax. Backfill with 2018 CEO options. No market trades to mess up stock price.

Also, others may join in buyout, reducing total cost to Elon.

 

[Knightshade]

Viewing shares in totality, what if he buys out the investment firm stakes via direct sales at fixed price along with excess needed for tax. Backfill with 2018 CEO options. No market trades to mess up stock price.

Also, others may join in buyout, reducing total cost to Elon.

Exercising options would trigger a large 53% of gains tax bill he'd need more $ to cover.

Not knowing who his other investors are is the wildcard here- we have no idea how much Elon personally needs to come up with.

 

[UltradoomY]

Exercising options would trigger a large 53% of gains tax bill he'd need more $ to cover.

I'm firmly in the camp of he would not be footing the whole bill - as included in the footnote "financing"
He has some pretty rich friends, and he probably said "hey guys, lets buy TWTR, $5B each"
Kinda like hanging with your friends drinking and then someone says - hey we should open a bar!

So it definitely presents an opportunity - meaning TWTR BCS and some Put buys for protection for when the board rejects his offer.
OFC, not advice.

 

[mongo]

Exercising options would trigger a large 53% of gains tax bill he'd need more $ to cover.

Not knowing who his other investors are is the wildcard here- we have no idea how much Elon personally needs to come up with.

Right, but he could sell the share needed to cover through the investment firms to avoid stock tanking.

 

[Yoona]

could be nasty today
View attachment 793568

is anyone else thinking of what i am thinking?

STO at pre-market BCS ATM, (30 DTE or longer in case market reverses quick)
then BTC at MMD for daytrade grab-and-go

or am i the last one to know about it?

 

[Knightshade]

I'm firmly in the camp of he would not be footing the whole bill - as included in the footnote "financing"
He has some pretty rich friends, and he probably said "hey guys, lets buy TWTR, $5B each"
Kinda like hanging with your friends drinking and then someone says - hey we should open a bar!

So it definitely presents an opportunity - meaning TWTR BCS and some Put buys for protection for when the board rejects his offer.
OFC, not advice.

I think you might overestimate the # of friends Elon has with 5 billion extra cash sitting around. It's not zero but I'm not sure it's 7 or 8 people either.

 

[AquaY]

I think you might overestimate the # of friends Elon has with 5 billion extra cash sitting around. It's not zero but I'm not sure it's 7 or 8 people either.

Doesn't need to be friends. Lots of venture capitalists out there would love to be a part of this deal with Musk.

 

[traxila]

I think you might overestimate the # of friends Elon has with 5 billion extra cash sitting around. It's not zero but I'm not sure it's 7 or 8 people either.

I agree. But my gut is that Musk will not sell any shares of any company unless he needs to pay taxes.

He will probably be OK with financing the whole thing. Money does not mean much to him in the end and it always seems to work out for him. For sure not everyone agrees….

People on CNBC seem angry about the whole thing, like he is making an unacceptable mockery of their very serious casino. Amusing.

 

[Knightshade]

I agree. But my gut is that Musk will not sell any shares of any company unless he needs to pay taxes.

He will probably be OK with financing the whole thing. Money does not mean much to him in the end and it always seems to work out for him. For sure not everyone agrees….

People on CNBC seem angry about the whole thing, like he is making an unacceptable mockery of their very serious casino. Amusing.

Where does he get 40+ billion dollars without selling anything?

Also assuming TWTR rejects the offer, it seems their corp rules mean it'd take years for him to gain control otherwise.

Stolen from the other thread:
Long time line due to:
No ability outside board to call special meeting
Slow turnover of board members: 3 staggered sets of 3 year terms
Only board can introduce items for voting.
200 million shares of preferred stock at board's control (Unsure if any already issued)
C. No Stockholder Action by Written Consent. Except as otherwise expressly provided by the terms of any series of Preferred Stock or other class of stock permitting the holders of such series to act by written consent, no action shall be taken by the stockholders of the Corporation except at an annual or special meeting of the stockholders called in accordance with the Bylaws, and no action shall be taken by the stockholders by written consent.


D. Special Meetings. Special meetings of the stockholders may be called only by the (i) Board of Directors pursuant to a resolution adopted by a majority of the Board; (ii) the chairman of the Board of Directors; (iii) the chief executive officer of the Corporation; or (iv) the president of the Corporation (in the absence of a chief executive officer).

 

[bkp_duke]

People on CNBC seem angry about the whole thing, like he is making an unacceptable mockery of their very serious casino. Amusing.

All the more reason for him to go through with it.

 

[scubastevo80]

Two sep comments - why are we even talking about TSLA and TWTR in the same sentence as their only commonality is Elon. Tesla is printing cash and we likely all have a long-term upward bias based on demand, roadmap, etc. TWTR still hasn’t figured out how to monetize and therefore is a mediocre investment at best, unless you believe they’ll solve this and continue to increase profits. I traded TWTR options on the Elon news (IV spike) and made out after the week, but I wouldn’t sell options again unless IV is back north of 125+.

Sold TSLA 4/22 BPS 820/700 for $1.50 this morning. May close yesterdays BCS if we hit north of 50% return in the next hour.

 

[Knightshade]

Two sep comments - why are we even talking about TSLA and TWTR in the same sentence as their only commonality is Elon.

Exactly for that reason.

TSLA is down almost $30/share this morning on the twitter news.

It's a distraction on multiple levels, involves potential additional sale of TSLA shares, etc.

Tesla is printing cash and we likely all have a long-term upward bias based on demand, roadmap, etc. TWTR still hasn’t figured out how to monetize and therefore is a mediocre investment at best

Which is why Elon announcing he wants to throw 54 billion dollars at it is having bad knock-on impact to TSLA.

On the bright side hopefully he's too busy with this twitter thing to attend the Q1 earnings call.

 

[bkp_duke]

Exactly for that reason.

TSLA is down almost $30/share this morning on the twitter news.

It's a distraction on multiple levels, involves potential additional sale of TSLA shares, etc.





Which is why Elon announcing he wants to throw 54 billion dollars at it is having bad knock-on impact to TSLA.

On the bright side hopefully he's too busy with this twitter thing to attend the Q1 earnings call.

In fairness, the market overall is down, and Max Pain is $995. There is more than just TWTR to explain this morning's drop.

Shanghai is still weighing heavily on my mind.

 

[Drezil]

A small follow-up on this discussion here:

Spoiler: The things

paging the experts... i don't get it, how does MarketRebellion know 4/22 1050 is buy/bullish by looking at volume? it could also be interpreted as sell/bearish, no?

View attachment 792913

Ok, this now looks like it was a short-term trade: Probably bought yesterday and sold about 1/2 today just to take some profit. Probably holding the rest, expecting a small pop next week before earnings, and will “sell on the expectation” before the news.
View attachment 793214

@scubastevo80 this is excellent information. I would not be selling longer term CCs at this point. At a minimum, wait until right before the earnings announcement to sell options. There will be an IV drop afterwards, maybe not much for long term options, but still some. Just like @juanmedina , I would try to time such CC sales with a major SP rise, especially ATH. Even with all the lousy macro issues, we still saw a massive $350 rise just a month ago. Wait for the next one.

Edit: ok, what just happened other than me rolling some -c1065s in to -c1020s? I was really expecting the SP to level out at $1010 today, then drop back to just below $1000 tomorrow. Apparently, I’m the absolute worst at trade timing. You’re welcome.

Or it got so hyped in the media/WSB/whatever, that people started to copy it with the uptrend today as confirmation-bias ..

One has to see if there were single big transactions or if the volume accumulated evenly over the day...

Edit: Think of the Warren-Fund. Buy what Elizabeth Warren buys/sells. You don't need to know why. She outperforms the market consistently because ... well.. she is soo good connected in politics, you know?
There are even Tik-Tok'er covering here every stock move.. making it kind of a self-fullfilling prophecy ..

Open-Interest today @1050c is still ~9k. So nearly no net-buying or net-selling of positions. This is how decieving "volume" can be. Even though we had the fake "model-leak", the twitter-thing and other stuff happening in-between the position still seems not to be closed and is most probably an earnings-play.
Maybe today is another unforseen day to jump onto that 1050c-bandwagon next week for cheap? I don't know ..

 

[Drezil]

Shanghai is still weighing heavily on my mind.

Even more on mine. I follow naomi on twitter and she has great insight into the inner workings of the country (esp. mentality) and the different regions.

Spoiler: Tweetstorm about shanghai-situation from earlier today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514421605866217475

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514421989292720132

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514457288806846465

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514459864042409985

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514352122183434241

 

[stealthyc]

Two sep comments - why are we even talking about TSLA and TWTR in the same sentence as their only commonality is Elon. Tesla is printing cash and we likely all have a long-term upward bias based on demand, roadmap, etc. TWTR still hasn’t figured out how to monetize and therefore is a mediocre investment at best, unless you believe they’ll solve this and continue to increase profits. I traded TWTR options on the Elon news (IV spike) and made out after the week, but I wouldn’t sell options again unless IV is back north of 125+.

Sold TSLA 4/22 BPS 820/700 for $1.50 this morning. May close yesterdays BCS if we hit north of 50% return in the next hour.

This is the options thread, short term movements matter is why.

 

[Yoona]

is anyone else thinking of what i am thinking?

STO at pre-market BCS ATM, (30 DTE or longer in case market reverses quick)
then BTC at MMD for daytrade grab-and-go

or am i the last one to know about it?

BTC 7/15 -c1200/+c1300 at 15+%
see you next week, boys

 

[bkp_duke]

Even more on mine. I follow naomi on twitter and she has great insight into the inner workings of the country (esp. mentality) and the different regions.

Spoiler: Tweetstorm about shanghai-situation from earlier today

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514421605866217475

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514421989292720132

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514457288806846465

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514459864042409985

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514352122183434241

My wife would shoot me if I followed her. I'll have to take your word for it.