Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[scubastevo80]

I just opened an IC 5% OTM on the upside and 7.5% downside after we appeared to have peaked for the day. Hoping to close by EOD to avoid another pre-earnings move tomorrow.

Wasn’t able to close the IC yesterday at a gain so will try to close today. Interesting that there was zero theta decay (or perhaps there was but IV went up) from 11 til close and the stock price finished within $5 of where I wrote the IC.

Likely closing everything today and writing next weeks conservative positions as other have indicated. Alternatively I may push out the IC wings for less premium and hold through earnings. There’s still a lot of macro factors that could shake things up but I’m struggling to see some big earnings related move up given the Shanghai overhang. I say that with low confidence so I’ll trade accordingly.

 

[Knightshade]

EV Forevers post really has me curious about just how random early assignment is.... I've had tons of put spreads be ITM in the past, sometimes $100+ ITM, and never been early assigned on any of them....while he apparently had it happen three weeks in a row on 9, 12, and then 17 puts.

 

[mongo]

EV Forevers post really has me curious about just how random early assignment is.... I've had tons of put spreads be ITM in the past, sometimes $100+ ITM, and never been early assigned on any of them....while he apparently had it happen three weeks in a row on 9, 12, and then 17 puts.

Are you using different brokerages?
Per Options Assignment
Which brokerage gets the assignmemt is random, but the brokerage can then assign it randomly or FIFO.
Either way, odds/ chance of assignment will depend on open interest in that option at the assigned brokerage.

 

[phantasms]

Both my 22 sold puts and sold calls are up this morning. So much for closing them out early. lol

 

[vikings123]

Both my 22 sold puts and sold calls are up this morning. So much for closing them out early. lol

Big spike in IV today causing premiums to go up. 1160/1260 BCS I sold at yesterday's highs are red with SP at 1000 lol.

 

[elasalle]

Sold Dec 22 - 2200 CC's (~$14 each) and got me ~ another 100 shares.
(+ 600 more shares since the Feb melt down - back to all my shares having CC's against them once again). cheers!!

Might have been better to wait a bit more - but sold them 100 shares and got me 3 jan 24 1100 Calls ...
MM trying to use NFLX drop as mind games

 

[dc_h]

Looks like people clearing out some option positions before earnings tonight. An often overlooked cause of sell the news. If earnings kicks ass, this could be one of the first big bumps post earnings in some time. Anyone with good charting tools have day of and day after performance for the last couple of years? I sold some BPS 875-825 on what I think was the dip. I think earnings will be very good, but guidance could underwhelm due to Shanghai.

 

[scubastevo80]

My earlier post didn’t age well given the IV spike but I’m fine at this point waiting for earnings. On the downside we need a 5%+ drop and a 10% rise on the upside for my strikes to be breached. I also looked at rolling out a week for improvement and not seeing much benefit (IV this week is 130+ and next week is in the 80s).

 

[Yoona]

Looks like people clearing out some option positions before earnings tonight. An often overlooked cause of sell the news. If earnings kicks ass, this could be one of the first big bumps post earnings in some time. Anyone with good charting tools have day of and day after performance for the last couple of years? I sold some BPS 875-825 on what I think was the dip. I think earnings will be very good, but guidance could underwhelm due to Shanghai.

if there is a historical list of earnings dates, i can chart the open/high/low/close of "Day Before/Day Of/Day After", and the % moves

 

[mongo]

if there is a historical list of earnings dates, i can chart the open/high/low/close of "Day Before/Day Of/Day After", and the % moves

got this from twitter last quarter

gary maybe?

 

[Knightshade]

Are you using different brokerages?
Per Options Assignment
Which brokerage gets the assignmemt is random, but the brokerage can then assign it randomly or FIFO.
Either way, odds/ chance of assignment will depend on open interest in that option at the assigned brokerage.

I trade with 3 different brokers- though one of them is the same as his (Fidelity- where my HSA and IRA accounts are)

I've seen folks previously report early assignment in here but IIRC it was always some random contracts got assigned once early, not same person being early assigned 3 weeks in a row on different contracts- that was a pretty striking difference (no pun intended)

 

[dc_h]

Elon says he will be on the earnings call tonight. Not sure if good or bad, but he seems to freak wall street out more than he delights.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516790570160644096

 

[UltradoomY]

Elon says he will be on the earnings call tonight. Not sure if good or bad, but he seems to freak wall street out more than he delights.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516790570160644096

I see this as higher conviction for me on the Giga TX Model Y variant being ready for order.
Which as long as we have a solid beat AND guidance for the rest of 22' is the same or higher we head up.
If guidance is lowered to less than 50% it will be a blood bath.
Ever the optimist - I bought a handful of December $1400's to add to the pile.

Even a nice little mention of the upcoming split that has already been "priced in" will move us up.

I will be buying your calls today as well - next week $1150's if anyone want to sell them to me for $5.50 each!

 

[corduroy]

Big spike in IV today causing premiums to go up. 1160/1260 BCS I sold at yesterday's highs are red with SP at 1000 lol.

IV for Friday is hanging on like crazy. This is going to be one hard crush tomorrow.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I will be buying your calls today as well - next week $1150's if anyone want to sell them to me for $5.50 each!

Last chunk I bought was hours ago with SP at $1000 and they don't seem to have gone down since. I think we have a lot of call buying in the background and a normal zero-volume push to max pain in the foreground.

 

[Yoona]

Looks like people clearing out some option positions before earnings tonight. An often overlooked cause of sell the news. If earnings kicks ass, this could be one of the first big bumps post earnings in some time. Anyone with good charting tools have day of and day after performance for the last couple of years? I sold some BPS 875-825 on what I think was the dip. I think earnings will be very good, but guidance could underwhelm due to Shanghai.

no time to make the chart pretty, i'm doing my taxes!

worst case scenario, if we have a repeat performance of 1/26/2022 vs 1/27:

• if today's low is 980, then tomorrow's close is 980-8.5%=897
• etc

best case scenario, if we have a repeat performance of 10/23/2019 vs 10/24:

• if today's low is 980, then tomorrow's close is 980+19.23%=1168
• etc

 

[vikings123]

I see this as higher conviction for me on the Giga TX Model Y variant being ready for order.
Which as long as we have a solid beat AND guidance for the rest of 22' is the same or higher we head up.
If guidance is lowered to less than 50% it will be a blood bath.
Ever the optimist - I bought a handful of December $1400's to add to the pile.

Even a nice little mention of the upcoming split that has already been "priced in" will move us up.

I will be buying your calls today as well - next week $1150's if anyone want to sell them to me for $5.50 each!

I just bought some 1150s for 04/29 @5.80. I don't think they will lower the guidance.

We have been trading in a range(975-1035) and expect a break one way or another. Not advice but I like the upside here. I like the setup for a beat and the odds of that helping the stock price.

If my post did not add value I hope this twitter post makes up for it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516567728957444099

 

[adiggs]

My play on earnings is awfully boring. With the big down day I've closed my 1100 strike calls expiring on Friday. They only moved $2.50 today; total gain roughly $7 (in 11.50, our 4.80). With shares moving $50 I'd expect a lot more down, but clearly IV is going up (a lot).

With the put close yesterday that leaves me in cash and shares - more cash than shares - as I await the report. I'll react tomorrow to whatever happens, and miss out on IV crush this time around.


I'm (hoping and) expecting we'll see short term traders reacting negatively to the report, and semi-expecting Elon to say stuff that further hurts the share price in the short term. I simultaneously expect longer term owners to be excited about another great report that indicates we're right on track. That has been a good historical prediction and is probably a good prediction for any random future quarter as well.

If this were any other week of the quarter I would be opening new puts right now for next week. I would normally be doing that this week as well to get the IV crush value. The reason I haven't opened those is that I've got a bunch of cash I want to buy DITM calls for June 2024 with, and if we DO get a big down day tomorrow then I want that cash uncommitted and ready to buy Buy BUY.


A humorous sidebar, at least to me - when I closed the 900 strike short puts yesterday, some of them were paired up with 600 strike insurance puts (put spreads) that I forgot to close. When I looked today, those were still there, and by waiting the extra day I closed for 0.10 what I could have closed for 0.02 yesterday. I 5x'ed my money overnight! Unfortunately that was $16 (8 contracts) yesterday, so I collected $80 today. That extra $64 total will cover an order of sushi tonight, and as I said - more humorous than actually interesting.

 

[saniflash]

INSANE increase in IV. on Mon I STO $1350 calls, after SP now -5%+ from that level the calls are still in deep red territory. WOW

 

[adiggs]

I just bought some 1150s for 04/29 @5.80. I don't think they will lower the guidance.

We have been trading in a range(975-1035) and expect a break one way or another. Not advice but I like the upside here. I like the setup for a beat and the odds of that helping the stock price.

If my post did not add value I hope this twitter post makes up for it

https://twitter.com/x/status/1516567728957444099

This is why I sell options in a single underlying, and its this one. This is just another instance of the information edge I believe that I have, where wall street deeply and fundamentally doesn't understand the company.

Heck long term buy and hold investors frequently don't understand. Even TESLA frequently doesn't understand what they've got ahold of.


Anybody that has trained as an MBA and/or finance professional (especially academia) knows too much, and none of it applies to a generational (or less often) business opportunity. The closest analogue I have in mind is Ford and the Model T, along with the associated manufacturing paradigm change.

There aren't any case studies, and nobody alive today was trading the market actively in the Model T days. And the level of information then was, of course, nothing like what we've got available today. The MBAs haven't studied this because there is nothing to study. But they do know business!

I believe that wall street understands macro better than I ever will. Wall street also understands technical analysis better than I ever will. I consider both of these to be valuable and important analysis to include in my thinking, but understanding the company provides me with the most critical edge. I keep an eye on this because I expect that sooner or later the information edge will largely vanish and I'll need a new plan then.

Which doesn't make me right. But it is what I trade on, and arguably have staked me and my family's financial future on, so I'm at least committed to this belief.