Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Anybody else worried about the unbridled optimism here lately?
Hi all, I truly encourage those interested among us to go back to page 110 of this wonderful thread and a chart of daily stock price. Observe the next several pages of discussion and understand that stuff gets real very quickly on a correction. It’s neat to read some of the wise folks become wiser and wiser over this stretch.

Still your point is well taken. And this work is very very challenging. And I’m very optimistic about the way things may go this next few months.
 
It's good to see the spreadsheets getting a workout. This type of analysis is what I've been doing for a few months and had alluded to in earlier posts here. However I think some of this analysis is still a little conservative as I've been working with IC's using less margin for a higher premium.

Some may remember I posted a couple of months back that I was helping my adult sons learn to trade options. As an example my analysis showed that a starting account balance of $5,000 could be turned into $1m within a year doing weekly IC's ($4.50 premium and $1875 margin) where the profits were reinvested each week to generate more contracts. The crazy part with this exponential analysis is that if you extend it out to 2 years (without taxation) the account balance grows to over $300M. Obviously this is crazy as the shear number of contracts on the options chain couldn't be sustained before long.

However we're now 8 weeks in and both my sons are so far tracking almost exactly in line with my original analysis.
That is the piece that a number of the posts have missed. If one is in a position to reinvest back into TSLA then the results are staggering. Without reinvestment the results are simply good.

Its reinvesting with twice the compounding. TSLA going to the moon and more shares to sell CCs against to to create margin for more BPS!
 
That is the piece that a number of the posts have missed. If one is in a position to reinvest back into TSLA then the results are staggering. Without reinvestment the results are simply good.

Its reinvesting with twice the compounding. TSLA going to the moon and more shares to sell CCs against to to create margin for more BPS!
It actually works out that its better to stay in cash (at least initially) rather than invest profits in TSLA shares. It seems typical for brokers to reserve say 50% of the margin value of TSLA shares. So keeping the profits in cash increases the amount added to the available margin by 50% over purchasing shares. However you can soon reach a point where you're generating more than enough weekly profit and then it's best to reinvest the extra into shares or LEAPS.

In my case I've reached the point where I'm now consistently generating weekly options profits that exceed my annual salary income (and I was already well paid). So I'm now transitioning into what to do with the all that extra income, which will mean restructuring so I can give much of it away as pre-tax donations.
 
This fascinated me so i made a quick weekly compounding spreadsheet.

Assuming
- one has 5000 shares and SP remains constant for 52 weeks
- one uses only 25% of available buying power
- weekly prem is minimum $3/contract
- one will BTC at 80%
- spread is $100

the account will grow by 30% after one year, or $1,174,320 gross income.

View attachment 718255
etc...
View attachment 718257

Excludes broker fees.
One spread only (ie BPS). BCS is all gravy.

If one uses 50% of available buying power, account will grow 60% with $2,360,880 gross income.
View attachment 718262

This is a very good framework to start with.
I suggest considering following adjustments
  • Row 'b' "Share Price": For arriving at the money you put to risk, calculate assuming SP will go down substantially, go with lower side of the range/channel the stock currently is in. Maybe $500 is safe? Pick your number.
  • Row 'd' "Broker Margin": Assume margin requirement on the high side: For TSLA concentrated portfolio, Fidelity currently has 60% margin requirements. Perhaps go with 70%.
  • If you do these changes, with 5000 shares, you have $750,000 available, 25% of that would be $187,500 capital.
 
It's good to see the spreadsheets getting a workout. This type of analysis is what I've been doing for a few months and had alluded to in earlier posts here. However I think some of this analysis is still a little conservative as I've been working with IC's using less margin for a higher premium.

Some may remember I posted a couple of months back that I was helping my adult sons learn to trade options. As an example my analysis showed that a starting account balance of $5,000 could be turned into $1m within a year doing weekly IC's ($4.50 premium and $1875 margin) where the profits were reinvested each week to generate more contracts. The crazy part with this exponential analysis is that if you extend it out to 2 years (without taxation) the account balance grows to over $300M. Obviously this is crazy as the shear number of contracts on the options chain couldn't be sustained before long.

However we're now 8 weeks in and both my sons are so far tracking almost exactly in line with my original analysis.
Do you mind sharing if you have certain specific ways to identify the strikes?
 
Do you mind sharing if you have certain specific ways to identify the strikes?
I use a variety of techniques that all come together to set strikes. The first is to be patient and not pick strikes until I have a high confidence in how the week will play out. So I generally stick to weekly options and will even wait till Tuesday (like this week) to open most of my positions if things aren't clear enough. I can always roll positions later in the week to get more premium if the opportunity presents.

The first thing I look at is the OI graph on maxpain.com to see where the major Put and Call walls are as well as the transition point between Puts and Calls. This is overlaid with a general understanding of events and how the share price could trade for the week to try to predict how the OI chart will evolve over the week. This normally allows a decent read on where the MM will target the Friday closing price as well as the risk potential for a miss. I don't normally target strikes right on the likely Put/Call walls as I prefer to hide behind them and this helps keeping margin buffers stable.

I also review various YouTube channels (The Daily Trader, The Stock Channel, Hit That Bid etc) focussed on technical analysis to get an understanding of the resistance levels based on technical analysis and recent trading levels. The TA is used more for a second opinion and reinforcement. I'm generally biased towards the upside so go conservative on calls. This also makes it important to understand resistance levels on the downside to know how risky the BPS side is.

On a Monday before market open (12.30am Tuesday currently for me) I setup a spreadsheet tab to analyse my trades for the week. This includes the current net liquidation, cash and excess liquidity including the amount of margin I'm prepared to trade with for the week. Then I lay out all the target option strikes (IC, BCS, CC or BPS) I'm looking to trade and how many of each I can STO to stay within my target margin limit. If I don't have high confidence in a particular strike I will ladder positions to reduce risk. As orders are filled the spreadsheet is updated to track progress for the week and then this gets transferred over to my larger tracking summary. I find analysing things in this way allows me to plan the trades to maximise the weeks return while managing the risk. This also allows me to review each week to help build on experience and confidence for trading in future weeks.
 
Last edited:
Yikes, macro futures this morning are looking a bit grim…. Hope we can hold up like Monday.
Monday we had the first trading day after the P&D numbers. So that was positive news that countered the markets negatives.
I doubt we will fair as well today as we did Monday.

S&P futures vs fair value: -42.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -198.30.

Seems all those swords hanging over the market's head is causing concerns.
Inflation, Oil prices, Debt ceiling, Supply shortages etc
 
  • Like
Reactions: UltradoomY
It's good to see the spreadsheets getting a workout. This type of analysis is what I've been doing for a few months and had alluded to in earlier posts here. However I think some of this analysis is still a little conservative as I've been working with IC's using less margin for a higher premium.

Some may remember I posted a couple of months back that I was helping my adult sons learn to trade options. As an example my analysis showed that a starting account balance of $5,000 could be turned into $1m within a year doing weekly IC's ($4.50 premium and $1875 margin) where the profits were reinvested each week to generate more contracts. The crazy part with this exponential analysis is that if you extend it out to 2 years (without taxation) the account balance grows to over $300M. Obviously this is crazy as the shear number of contracts on the options chain couldn't be sustained before long.

However we're now 8 weeks in and both my sons are so far tracking almost exactly in line with my original analysis.
Do you happen to have the link to that post again, pls?
TIA!
 
This fascinated me so i made a quick weekly compounding spreadsheet.

Assuming
- one has 5000 shares and SP remains constant for 52 weeks
- one uses only 25% of available buying power
- weekly prem is minimum $3/contract
- one will BTC at 80%
- spread is $100

the account will grow by 30% after one year, or $1,174,320 gross income.

View attachment 718255
etc...
View attachment 718257

Excludes broker fees.
One spread only (ie BPS). BCS is all gravy.

If one uses 50% of available buying power, account will grow 60% with $2,360,880 gross income.
View attachment 718262
I just wanted to say thanks for doing this as I had been struggling with how to conceptualize how to best allocate capital. I plugged my own very conservative numbers into this and it reminded me I don't need to go #yolo. Stick to your plan and if you reinvest your weekly goal...your position will grow just fine.
 
Do you happen to have the link to that post again, pls?
TIA!
The posts are quoted below. I didn't quote $1M exactly (kept it to $750k+) but in the spreadsheet below (rows 5-51 hidden) it comes out to $1M.

Iron Condors Cash only re-invested weekly
Option egPremiumMM Impact
665/685 760/780 IC
$4.50​
$1,875​
WeekNo. of ICPremiumNLV
0​
0​
$0​
$5,000​
1​
1​
$446​
$5,446​
2​
1​
$446​
$5,891​
3​
1​
$446​
$6,337​
4​
1​
$446​
$6,782​
5​
1​
$446​
$7,228​
52​
239​
$106,475​
$1,002,920​
My current weekly gain is around 3-5% against total account capital/liquidity but was less before I got things properly worked out. I have achieved 7% but that was pushing it or just a crazy week to trade. My target is 5% and I see this being achievable unless I hit a bad week and then need a recovery week. I could achieve more if I didn't have mostly shares in the accounts as only about 1/3 of the share value gets released as excess liquidity that I can actually trade against.

I've recently started an experiment with a couple of my sons, one through my account (shadow accounting) and one through his own new account. Taking one for example, he started with around $5k excess liquidity, and is using half that amount as the margin limit to sell options against each week. So far this is yielding weekly option premiums of $4.25-$6, so say around 10%. At first this only allows for one contract per week but will build into additional contracts as the capital compounds. If we can keep this up for a year, then I won't have my kids coming to me asking for money.:cool:

Edit: Added graph for the last month for my main account:
I'm currently working with a couple of my sons building their accounts that are at a similar size. We're basically taking half of the excess liquidity available in their accounts and using that to determine how many IC they can sell in a given week. So for an account with a $6000 excess liquidity (assuming mostly cash) that would initially work out to around 1-2 contracts per week. Currently that would be returning $360-$900 per week depending on how conservative or aggressive the contracts are. So 6 to 15% return in the first week is not too bad. Compounding will also increase the number of contracts able to be sold per week over time. When I put all this into a spreadsheet and extend it out for a year, that $6,000 has the potential to turn into $750k+ (assuming perfect execution). We're only a few weeks in and expect a few stumbles along the way, but so far things are going according to plan.
 
so is everyone snapping up their BPS this morning? seems like a good time to do so. I feel left out, lol.

sold 20x CC @ 820 strike, 10/8 exp at $1.15 earlier today.
i'm looking at closing my BPS that was opened on Friday. I've been sitting at 75%+ gain since close to end of day on Monday and the closing price has held steady.

I get the sense that many of the experienced BPS traders don't ender the next week's trade until Thurs/Fri and some even wait until the following week.

And unfortunately i'm nowhere close to making that elusive $100/week club no matter what BPS configuration i try. 🤷‍♂️
 
I got brave on Monday after the P$D report, and sold a lot of 690/740s. Still looking ok, but the horrible Macros this week have given me heartburn. I think I will be a little more conservative in the future. I'm willing to give up some income to sleep better.

Right there with you. I rolled my BPS up from 670/710 to 700/740.

Going to be a few sleep-deprived days till Friday close of market.
 
i'm looking at closing my BPS that was opened on Friday. I've been sitting at 75%+ gain since close to end of day on Monday and the closing price has held steady.

I get the sense that many of the experienced BPS traders don't ender the next week's trade until Thurs/Fri and some even wait until the following week.

And unfortunately i'm nowhere close to making that elusive $100/week club no matter what BPS configuration i try. 🤷‍♂️
Maybe .... You need bigger accounts. Or you're saying $100/week per contract.
 
I got brave on Monday after the P$D report, and sold a lot of 690/740s. Still looking ok, but the horrible Macros this week have given me heartburn. I think I will be a little more conservative in the future. I'm willing to give up some income to sleep better.

Right there with you. I rolled my BPS up from 670/710 to 700/740.

Going to be a few sleep-deprived days till Friday close of market.
1) Install an app like Webull on your phone;
2) Set price alerts for TSLA, in this case when the stock drops below $750;
3) Sleep peacefully (as long as you have an internet connection :p)
4) IF you get an alert, drop everything you do and go check out if you need to roll.

Not advice. That's how I drop my stress levels to try to get some work done.
 
i'm looking at closing my BPS that was opened on Friday. I've been sitting at 75%+ gain since close to end of day on Monday and the closing price has held steady.

I get the sense that many of the experienced BPS traders don't ender the next week's trade until Thurs/Fri and some even wait until the following week.

And unfortunately i'm nowhere close to making that elusive $100/week club no matter what BPS configuration i try. 🤷‍♂️
Why close it now with 25% of the premium left on the table? Do you have another position you want to open and need to use the margin? Do you currently expect the closing price on Friday to be well above the short strike on your BPS?

I'm personally happy holding my spreads until near the very end when I close them for max profit. If there's a more profitable trade you want to move to then its understandable closing but otherwise not.

What a lot of people new to spreads may not fully understand is that they have a relatively flat profit curve that only yields the last part of its value near expiry. You have to wait for the P+ to lose its extrinsic value closer to expiry before you gain the max profit. This is different to straight Puts and Calls where the profit curve is much more linear. If IV goes up during the week it can keep BPS values elevated, but the most important thing is the closing price. As long as the stock price closes above the P- you will get your maximum available return.
 
Last edited: