I like their index work for sure and their concepts are solid. With Tesla's dynamics, we have a leg up I feel as we track closely everything that's going on. But I found it useful to add a bit more of their analytics into my brew.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Picked up a few more 1/7 BPS -p900/+p700 @46.9 with the proceeds from Friday's roll of 12/23 to 1/7 of the same BPS.
corduroy
Active Member
I wish there was a "ballsy" feedback emoji I could give you.
The Nasdaq climbed in the month of December in 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. This is the first year it is setting up to end lower. If it reverses, TSLA should end the year above 900. Sometime this week I will roll my 12/23 700/900 to 12/31.
dc_h
Active Member
Yeah, I'm asking myself if 918.11 was the "rally" this morning to roll into, or if we can hold 900 and sell after time decay kicks in on Wed or Thursday. I'm 93% certain Elon is done selling for the year and don't think he'll be able to sell again until after earnings. With BBB dead, there is no reason for him to sell until after a move up.
I may sell more I dare you CC's. I sold 1025 12/23 for 3.08 and am up 80%+ and have more at 1100, up 86%. I'd rather get called on an aggressive CC than shredded on my BPS that I keep rolling down.
Omicron is moving the market, but I'm confident it should not affect TSLA earnings or sales. Unless Elon opens a cruise ship division of Tesla, I don't see any impact to revenue, barring an unlikely full panic shutdown. I'm also +90% sure that is not happening, so any sales are short term panic.
Ok, nowhere near this “ideal”, but rolled down the ROTH to 12/23 p990/c1005 strangle for a small credit. This account is in the “best” situation at 8% cash (the others are only 2-3%). In the smallest and tightest account rolled -c1005s to 12/31 for $7cr. The last account is in the worst position and recently had to roll out to -c1300 9/22 just to generate enough cash to get out of some DITM -p1200s. Those are now at -p920s for 01/07/2022 (with hopefully enough cash to roll if needed or just accept assignment). My goal is to generate enough cash with selling puts by September to buyback/ roll those -c1300s.
Edit: oh, forgot that a couple buys triggered at $904.20 this AM. Next buy levels are $888.
Question about ITM puts. Most all my put spreads went ITM this morning, a 1/7 for -950/850 and a 12/31 for -930/800. Have some for 12/23 at 900/700 and another for 12/31 at 930/800 that I will close out as they are small multiples. Really worried about the biggie for 1/7. I see some of us have DITM spreads and wait, others move out early.
Being that I am stuck in the middle right now, can someone bring clarity to how some spreads can be DITM and not get called?
Being that I am stuck in the middle right now, can someone bring clarity to how some spreads can be DITM and not get called?
I was told nail biting wasn't part of trading options. Just take a position and relax, they said.
Not sure if I'd roll to something neutral and call it a day, or hold on for the ride.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
The odds of early exercise increase:
1) the closer to expiration
2) the deeper ITM they go
My impression has always been that #1 is more important, but I don't know that for fact. And I say that as someone with a lot of 1/7 900/950 BPS and a few others just below that.
Well, I've been rolling some -1200 puts for a few weeks now and have yet to get assigned, so...
dc_h
Active Member
I think highly likely. Gary Black didn't think he could sell after the 17th. He's more into the SEC rules than Dave. He also said he's paying over 11 billion. If he planned on paying 13 billion, he'd say over 13 billion. Elon doesn't tend to understate.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Kicked my 820/-1020’s I have been rolling since 10% tweet to 1/21/22 for $9 debit. Total credit for the series is still 29.4.
Rolled my 820/-960’s and 710/-970’s to next week for credits. Got a $10 strike improvement on the latter as well.
These are all from my stupid move the Monday after the tweet.
Rolled my 820/-960’s and 710/-970’s to next week for credits. Got a $10 strike improvement on the latter as well.
These are all from my stupid move the Monday after the tweet.
scubastevo80
Member
Anyone buying LEAPs if we drop into the $800s? ITM/OTM? Expiry? We're cash limited so looking at a March'22 play that banks on a run upward towards Q4 earnings/product announcements in late January. Scared to trade if this isn't the bottom though - don't really see any upside catalysts between now and 12/31. Otherwise, may just buy 5 to 10 shares and call it a day/year.
I also tend to think Elon really did intend to tamp down enthusiasm in the stock price (if you look back at his Twitter timeline at the time, he had numerous tweets that seemed almost designed to do just that), and, well, mission accomplished. Even if he did originally have a couple more tranches to go, he could have easily terminated the plan early, seeing where things have gone.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Elon can not make discretionary sales last 2 weeks... he can continue to make pre-planned 10b5-1 sales during these periods though.
950 Puts for Thursday is currently $54.25. 950-54.25 = $895. Stock currently at 903. Won't get assigned right now because holder of put loses $8. As we get closer to expiration the gap narrows and risk of assignment increases.
ChefBoyardee
Member
I think we're at 1 out of 2 potential bottoms. I'm optimistic for this one since Elon might be done selling. Right now we're at the previous ATH, the price level before the big pop in Oct, and sitting at the middle trendline in the channel. Hanging on to my 900's for this week a little longer, but might roll if I can get a good enough credit & margin reduction, just to cover my bases if things turn ugly again
If the selloff doesn't stop here, I think we're looking at roughly 850 for the bottom (bottom of the long term channel)
Also, nice pop happening as I write this lol
If the selloff doesn't stop here, I think we're looking at roughly 850 for the bottom (bottom of the long term channel)
Also, nice pop happening as I write this lol
Watch out if you're still holding these spreads on their expiry day. I was holding 950/840 spreads this past Friday and IBKR liquidated the short legs with about 2 hrs left until market close when the stock price went to about 945. There was still a few dollars of time value left since they were so close to ATM but I didn't have enough cash/margin to cover assignment in that account.
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