Hope that $50 jolt out of the blue in minutes helped a few people, an example of what could happen in the next few weeks?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I don't recall that stressful a day in a long time.
As I've said before, I manage my mom's IRA. I had 150 700/950BPS in her account. Getting only $2 premium/week would have earned $1.5M in her account. But when we fell back to 850 the second time I decided I couldn't risk all her money, so I rolled them all to Dec 2022 for around a $450,000 credit. So the manipulators successfully scared me into leaving $1M on the table for her this year. The good news is she can easily live on $100k, so she will be just fine. It just makes me mad that bad people probably won today's round.
In my account, I'm still sitting on all my 1050/850s and 1050/800s. I will sit on those until at least Wednesday. I closed all my 1100 Puts for around a $4M loss. But with the extra margin I bought 10,000 shares around 875. I could sell 100 CC for Jan 2024 for $1.5M. That will more than pay for my $5M margin loan, and if the shares get called away in two years I will have made over $10M on the new shares. So maybe I will stick it to the short sellers in the end and emerge victorious.
As I've said before, I manage my mom's IRA. I had 150 700/950BPS in her account. Getting only $2 premium/week would have earned $1.5M in her account. But when we fell back to 850 the second time I decided I couldn't risk all her money, so I rolled them all to Dec 2022 for around a $450,000 credit. So the manipulators successfully scared me into leaving $1M on the table for her this year. The good news is she can easily live on $100k, so she will be just fine. It just makes me mad that bad people probably won today's round.
In my account, I'm still sitting on all my 1050/850s and 1050/800s. I will sit on those until at least Wednesday. I closed all my 1100 Puts for around a $4M loss. But with the extra margin I bought 10,000 shares around 875. I could sell 100 CC for Jan 2024 for $1.5M. That will more than pay for my $5M margin loan, and if the shares get called away in two years I will have made over $10M on the new shares. So maybe I will stick it to the short sellers in the end and emerge victorious.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I rolled everything that had a mid point at or below todays prices. Got small credits. One I paid .50 to roll it out. I went for max strike improvement. Only got about 10 on most of them.
I still have almost half of my bps expiring this week that had higher midpoints. The little rally at the end of the day happened when I got a phone call and wasn’t able to work on rolling out two more sets that have mid points at 920 and 930.
I bought a March ATM 850 call when we were at 856 in my Roth. That account ended the day slightly green because of that. That made my day right there.
This EOD rally does give me hope for tomorrow.
I still have almost half of my bps expiring this week that had higher midpoints. The little rally at the end of the day happened when I got a phone call and wasn’t able to work on rolling out two more sets that have mid points at 920 and 930.
I bought a March ATM 850 call when we were at 856 in my Roth. That account ended the day slightly green because of that. That made my day right there.
This EOD rally does give me hope for tomorrow.
The big question for me is what to do Wednesday afternoon. I'm assuming we won't be above my 1050 short leg (850/1050 BPS). The risk is what happens Thursday/Friday. If we are at 1,000 on Wednesday, I could just roll to December for a credit and be done for the year. Of course, if we jump to 1100 by Friday I will be really mad I left money on the table. On the other hand if we have a post earnings sell-off to 850 and I didn't roll then I will be furious with myself for being greedy. Help!!!
P.S. - Probably have to go with the old rule that if you don't know what to do, do half of them....
P.S. - Probably have to go with the old rule that if you don't know what to do, do half of them....
Earnings should be good and max pain last I checked was $1,050 for this Friday. Both of these should work in your favor. If we are green Tuesday and Wednesday I'd probably err on the side of caution and reduce exposure by half
dc_h
Active Member
I held firm this morning, felt a bit gray and wished I had spare cash to buy shares and sell some 800-700 BPS. Macro issues are somewhat tsunami like with inflation concerns and the possibility of war in Europe. Fear aside, the stock market continued to run during WWI and WWII, and Vietnam and every other war. Stocks that are well run and well positioned did well and stocks that were poorly run and poorly positioned, did poorly. Would a Ukraine war bleed into US China relations and affect Shanghai? That seems unlikely, although possible. The question beyond this weeks trades, is how do these affect Tesla's ability to make and sell cars and does risk off market negatively affect selling at 55 times forward PE?
Macros could be made worse by Russia US relations, but a lot of negative is already built into the market. Hopefully earnings are rip your face off good. I think getting back over 1000 seems reasonable this week. Getting out unscathed this week would be great, as IV will fall on Thursday and premiums will not be as juicy again for a while.
My concerns
960-860 BPS
950-850 BPS
820-770 BPS
Some naked puts I will continue to roll for cash until the price rolls up to me.
Macros could be made worse by Russia US relations, but a lot of negative is already built into the market. Hopefully earnings are rip your face off good. I think getting back over 1000 seems reasonable this week. Getting out unscathed this week would be great, as IV will fall on Thursday and premiums will not be as juicy again for a while.
My concerns
960-860 BPS
950-850 BPS
820-770 BPS
Some naked puts I will continue to roll for cash until the price rolls up to me.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Man reading the main thread seems like walking into a Mardi Gras party. I just can’t get into the same excitement that is going on over there right now. I feel like I’m still holding my breath. I sure hope they are right though. 
Noneduck
Member
I think I am doing the Wheel in reverse, week after week losing money on options, but buying more and more shares anyway
Rolled my two 1/28 1050/900 BPSs to 2/4 1090/940s today for a slight credit. Of course my timing was terrible, doing it when the SP was around 880. 
My thinking is that same as @dc_h. I didn't want to risk waiting since the short side is already well ITM. My goal is to watch these two over the next several days to see the impact of earnings, fed, macro market on this spread. Not the most disciplined approach I'm sure, but I am still betting the SP rebounds nicely in the short term. Would love nothing more than to stay within reach and be able to continue to roll as needed until SP catches up to us. Worst case, I'm ok with taking max loss as a well-learned lesson.
My thinking is that same as @dc_h. I didn't want to risk waiting since the short side is already well ITM. My goal is to watch these two over the next several days to see the impact of earnings, fed, macro market on this spread. Not the most disciplined approach I'm sure, but I am still betting the SP rebounds nicely in the short term. Would love nothing more than to stay within reach and be able to continue to roll as needed until SP catches up to us. Worst case, I'm ok with taking max loss as a well-learned lesson.
why do you guys think there will be a sell off after earnings? there has not been any front running I think haha. Don't we usually go up AH and later during the trading hours fade off some?
We'll see, but with the options volume today I expect max-pain will drop significantly when we get updated numbers tomorrow:
Had to get away when Tesla was around 865, so went skiing in the backcountry where there is no service. Did I miss anything?
and woke up to 
scubastevo80
Member
Opened 1/28 -740/+640 for $8 this morning and closed at $3.50 with 15 min left in the day. Wanted to keep some margin available to roll the other BPS at a debit. Still have concerns that the run up to earnings or reaction to earnings is our near term high. I don’t see any unknown catalysts that outweigh the “great repricing” over the next month or two.
Still extremely bullish long-term but have doubts about digging further BPS roll-holes.
Still extremely bullish long-term but have doubts about digging further BPS roll-holes.
I don’t know what to make of that move at the end of the day, too much too fast. I guess we should expect more volatility this week and take the small wins.
I took the opportunity to trim down one of my BPS positions when the stock was trading around 910 in the AM. Still have these positions open for 01/28
11X -950/+870 01/28 (closed 10X today for a loss)
10X -945/800 01/28
5X -920 02/04, will let these go into next week.
1X dare you 01/28 980 covered call, will leave this open until Wednesday just for fun
I will be looking to trim these positions further on any strength tomorrow even if they are for a loss.
Typically on Earnings day we tend to trade flat with low volume so might wait until Wednesday just for the additional time decay. I say typically because this is not a typical week lol. Happy Trading.
I took the opportunity to trim down one of my BPS positions when the stock was trading around 910 in the AM. Still have these positions open for 01/28
11X -950/+870 01/28 (closed 10X today for a loss)
10X -945/800 01/28
5X -920 02/04, will let these go into next week.
1X dare you 01/28 980 covered call, will leave this open until Wednesday just for fun
I will be looking to trim these positions further on any strength tomorrow even if they are for a loss.
Typically on Earnings day we tend to trade flat with low volume so might wait until Wednesday just for the additional time decay. I say typically because this is not a typical week lol. Happy Trading.
Can’t really tell you, my brokerage platform went offline to avoid margin calling me. They knew I wasn’t ready to see 7 number portfolio drops yet. I will send them a thank you letter when the stock recovered to $1200
Interesting tweet, data seems to suggest we can go up in the short term but down in the medium term. Of course we have earnings on 01/26 so this could be a lot of fun.
Yeah, just eye-balling it the sweet spot seems to be 880/890, and we know they don't mind having Puts assigned so they might not defend lower.
No, there was way more call volume at/above 900 than put volume.
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