Aren’t those support lines only valid on the close though? We just bounced off of 827. Did you roll, or how do you use that? Just trying to learn!
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I thought speculation was short term as it is a voting machine in the short term however long term is investing because stock market become a weighting machine. With 50% consistant growth, on the long term, the odds the stock is above todays price are higher. However, of course we are speculating the world doesn’t end with WW3 or global pandemic with higher death rate. That’s why I see writing long dated puts more as investing than short term speculation. I might be wrong.
When a support line is breached, it is breached as per technical traders. Even if it’s intra day. The fact it bounced at 827.05 means it is still holding. Watch Cory on the stock channel, 827 is the last support before a prolonged descending triangle bear market leading us down for a while. That’s my trigger before I become officially a bear.
jeewee3000
Active Member
@Max Plaid 's point is that even LEAPS are speculative since 2 years is too short a time horizon to be able to accurately predict SP fluctuations. Any serious financial crisis takes around 3 years before the markets recover back to break even so your long term options will have expired by then.
In short: TSLA in 2 years? Who knows. TSLA in 10 years? Excellent.
Not directly related to the positions I have but read through a very interesting post on the TA thread by @Mike Da Gee
It is a really interesting hypothesis that the FED sees including massive volatility as a way to lower inflation and not one I had included before.
Makes a lot of sense to me that if they can whittle down some account balances then people will be more fearful of spending and allow inflation to come down organically and rates to be raised slower.
Means more volatility but if you know the rules of the game, you then can play it better.
Cheers!
It is a really interesting hypothesis that the FED sees including massive volatility as a way to lower inflation and not one I had included before.
Makes a lot of sense to me that if they can whittle down some account balances then people will be more fearful of spending and allow inflation to come down organically and rates to be raised slower.
Means more volatility but if you know the rules of the game, you then can play it better.
Cheers!
ChefBoyardee
Member
Aaand the conversion to leaps spreads is done 
I chose 1300/1600 for better volume. Breakeven is 1370 and full recovery at 1600 by Jan 19th 2024. Tax funding secured. Still have some other positions and stock as well. Feels good.
Now time to sit back and watch with some popcorn.
Let's hope we close above the 200DMA at 830, or at least rebound off 790. Worst case scenario is visiting the bottom of the declining channel which is at 730 this week and 715 next week, so I'd say any spreads below 700 are safe.
I chose 1300/1600 for better volume. Breakeven is 1370 and full recovery at 1600 by Jan 19th 2024. Tax funding secured. Still have some other positions and stock as well. Feels good.
Now time to sit back and watch with some popcorn.
Let's hope we close above the 200DMA at 830, or at least rebound off 790. Worst case scenario is visiting the bottom of the declining channel which is at 730 this week and 715 next week, so I'd say any spreads below 700 are safe.
I just rolled everything to Jan 2024 and closed half of the open contracts with the proceedings.
Edit: I also needed to free up some margin for an impending home purchase
Edit: I also needed to free up some margin for an impending home purchase
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Rolled my 2/25 BPS 810/610 to 3/4 790/590 @5.5 when the SP was 840sh.
No luck rolling my 3/11 1000/800 BPS. Even tried moving forward a month to after next ER. Will need to hope for some more green before then...
No luck rolling my 3/11 1000/800 BPS. Even tried moving forward a month to after next ER. Will need to hope for some more green before then...
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm gonna wait. Converting shares to $1200c/$1400c spreads at $2800 looks like free money today, but what's the odds things get considerably better in a month? If we're stuck below $900 another month, then I'm buying just before or after St Paddy's Day when IV should be delightfully low.
Imagine getting 10/1 that TSLA will be across $1400 two years from now. That's a 2024 trailing PE of around 45-55. I'll take that wager.
Imagine getting 10/1 that TSLA will be across $1400 two years from now. That's a 2024 trailing PE of around 45-55. I'll take that wager.
Rolled my Apr -850/+650 to Jun -810/+610 for free. Will keep rolling this down and out I think to something well into the 700s.
Not touching my May -800/+600, yet. Will see how things develop and then roll down and out to the 700s too.
Hate this situation. Safe CC paying nothing, and I don't want to tap more margin to sell -700/+500 BPS.
HODL it is for now.
Not touching my May -800/+600, yet. Will see how things develop and then roll down and out to the 700s too.
Hate this situation. Safe CC paying nothing, and I don't want to tap more margin to sell -700/+500 BPS.
HODL it is for now.
corduroy
Active Member
scubastevo80
Member
Rolled everything that had an upper strike above 780 today - will continue to roll as limits are approached.
Separately, I'm looking to add long exposure if we dip below $800. Anyone have not advice ideas to utilize a bit of leverage? Long call spreads? DITM LEAPs? Can consider selling shares to fund that if need be.
Separately, I'm looking to add long exposure if we dip below $800. Anyone have not advice ideas to utilize a bit of leverage? Long call spreads? DITM LEAPs? Can consider selling shares to fund that if need be.
This morning would have been a good time to roll out of my Feb 25 820/720 and 800/700 bps. At this point, they are expensive to close and if rolled would be more of an issue to move again if needed or close out. A quick stop at 840 would do the trick, close out, be done with each.
NOT-ADVICE
Something I wish I had done sooner with my earlier-in-the-year disastrous BPS was to stop looking at profit and instead consider what sort of permanent damage could have occurred and how I could have mitigated some if it. If I had pondered this question earlier then I'd have gladly closed at a 50% loss and been much better off now. I'm still fine either way, but more fine would be nice
But I didn't ponder that question until I had lost almost all of the value before I did do that analysis.
I don't have advice about what anybody should do in their situation. The closest advice I have is, in addition to all of the rest of the analysis you are doing, ponder the question of how close to a full loss / how far ITM / how close the insurance put is to ITM, and figure out what further losses in the share price will mean to your overall portfolio and situation. I don't know the answer - simply ponder the question. This is what I didn't do and it was expensive.
For me, the moment I started to feel like my short term speculation / income thesis also involved feeling like I was standing at the craps table, that was when I pulled the trigger and got out.
Something I wish I had done sooner with my earlier-in-the-year disastrous BPS was to stop looking at profit and instead consider what sort of permanent damage could have occurred and how I could have mitigated some if it. If I had pondered this question earlier then I'd have gladly closed at a 50% loss and been much better off now. I'm still fine either way, but more fine would be nice
But I didn't ponder that question until I had lost almost all of the value before I did do that analysis.
I don't have advice about what anybody should do in their situation. The closest advice I have is, in addition to all of the rest of the analysis you are doing, ponder the question of how close to a full loss / how far ITM / how close the insurance put is to ITM, and figure out what further losses in the share price will mean to your overall portfolio and situation. I don't know the answer - simply ponder the question. This is what I didn't do and it was expensive.
For me, the moment I started to feel like my short term speculation / income thesis also involved feeling like I was standing at the craps table, that was when I pulled the trigger and got out.
Looking for some advice, not advice here... @ChefBoyardee did something a bit more aggressive than what I am looking to do, but say I liquidated all of my TSLA holdings and converted all of those shares to LEAPs -- I would target 700 or 800 strike price in Jan 2024, which would give me a break even around $1000/900 a share give or take in 2024. I think tentatively I would be able to double or almost triple my share exposure with the conversion depending on the strike price and subsequent profits.
I also have some outstanding 2024 puts backed by margin -- I wouldnt have to close these correct? I could just let them ride and be backed by the LEAPs on margin, correct? Or should I close them out?
What is the downside here? TSLA stagnates and doesnt even make it to 1000 a share? I could always roll the LEAPs out for a credit, right?
This is a taxable account, everything is long term already, so I would take that hit regardless.
What am I missing?
I also have some outstanding 2024 puts backed by margin -- I wouldnt have to close these correct? I could just let them ride and be backed by the LEAPs on margin, correct? Or should I close them out?
What is the downside here? TSLA stagnates and doesnt even make it to 1000 a share? I could always roll the LEAPs out for a credit, right?
This is a taxable account, everything is long term already, so I would take that hit regardless.
What am I missing?
bballshinobi
Member
There is the risk of losing all your money if TSLA doesn't stay above your strike price by 2024 - not likely, but possible. Your LEAPs might also lose value fast when the IV goes down.
I've rolled some 790 naked puts for this week down to 750 naked puts for next week. The rolled contracts are all contracts that (today) I target for assignment next week should we drop that far.
I could pay roughly $10 to roll the 790s down to 750 for this week, but for that to pay off, I would the share price to be below 750 this week (so I get assignment at a $40 better strike). If I knew that $10 now would save me $40 later then of course I'd do it. But I don't know that and the goal isn't to avoid assignment.
With the new setup I have contracts for this week that I plan to take assignment on (790s) and contracts for next week that I plan to take assignment on (750s). The remaining naked puts will be rolled this week as normal money making positions, with a plan to get at least 1 of them in position for an 700 strike assignment the week after (or as soon as I can get there).
This is me dollar cost averaging on the way down.
With the continuing evolution of the Russia - Ukraine news I'm thinking of revising that plan slightly to either skip the 750 assignment, so 700 would be my next planned assignment. Or maybe expand the range - something like 800, then 720, then 650 (vs. 800, 750, 700, 650).
Although I think the current share prices are crazy low for the company, I also remind myself that without a lot more money than I have, my opinion is of little meaning to the market. Whether there are good logical reasons for the share price I believe are correct, the actual share price is a reflection of what the investing community as a whole believe is correct.
I could pay roughly $10 to roll the 790s down to 750 for this week, but for that to pay off, I would the share price to be below 750 this week (so I get assignment at a $40 better strike). If I knew that $10 now would save me $40 later then of course I'd do it. But I don't know that and the goal isn't to avoid assignment.
With the new setup I have contracts for this week that I plan to take assignment on (790s) and contracts for next week that I plan to take assignment on (750s). The remaining naked puts will be rolled this week as normal money making positions, with a plan to get at least 1 of them in position for an 700 strike assignment the week after (or as soon as I can get there).
This is me dollar cost averaging on the way down.
With the continuing evolution of the Russia - Ukraine news I'm thinking of revising that plan slightly to either skip the 750 assignment, so 700 would be my next planned assignment. Or maybe expand the range - something like 800, then 720, then 650 (vs. 800, 750, 700, 650).
Although I think the current share prices are crazy low for the company, I also remind myself that without a lot more money than I have, my opinion is of little meaning to the market. Whether there are good logical reasons for the share price I believe are correct, the actual share price is a reflection of what the investing community as a whole believe is correct.
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