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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Cleared out my 250cc for this week expiration. I'd been waiting on a .03 close and decided to stop ****ing around, and close for .04. They were probably going to expire worthless anyway, but my trading rule says take the high % profit on a move down like today, so I can open a replacement position when (if) we bounce back tomorrow. These are my version of distant / low credit cc.

Also have 235s for next week. These are b/w shares that I also closed the cc on. These were only 85% gains (in 6.50, out .90) and frees those shares as well.


I'm left with Nov 275 strike puts with ~0 time value remaining. At the moment I pulled up the option chain, shares were 206.30 and the option was 68.85 to 69.45 (b/a). With intrinsic of 68.70, I'm left with extrinsic of .15 to .75. Not really 0 but awfully low.

These are 28 or 29 days to expiration - much, much earlier than I want to roll, but also getting close to where I don't want to chance it IF rolling is preserving the position is really what I want to do.

I'm asking for not-advice / suggestions for options on how to proceed:
1) Do nothing. Looking for either the share price to revert, or to take assignment whenever that happens. That'll put me into shares purchased at $275 and selling cc (run the wheel).

2) Roll now. If I roll to Jan '23 then I have a 273.33 strike available (1.67 strike improvement) with a midpoint credit of 1.83. This is marking time waiting on next quarter's financials with a bit of income thrown in for good measure. Worth noting that this is about 2/3rds of 1% over 2 months - not great by my recent standards but also not a problem to live on.

3) I have previously used BPS as a means of converting csp into far closer to the money positions that are more likely to close early. It looks like, sticking with the Nov monthly expiration, I can convert 1 275 strike csp into 11 200/176.67 for a roughly $800 credit. That gets me a rough estimate - I'd keep poking at this looking at shorter expirations and lower strikes to get closer to $50 net credit and safer position.


H'mm - I'll look more at the csp >> BPS conversion for some of these later.

Any other ideas for something more proactive than just roll and wait? THx
 
what strike are you thinking of for 10/28?

soicancopypaste...
Jeeze, that's a tough question... right now everything looks bad with IV down the shitter...

I have a $10k weekly target, which right now would be a roll of the 10x -c220's for +$2.6, leaving 100x -c235's @ $0.75 -> the 220's I'm OK with as I've decided to let the shares go at that price (unless a roll-up presents itself), but the c235's seem quite in danger in case of a reversal, still that's 15% above the current SP, which is some ways to go, but a Twitter deal and no Musk sales could achieve that IMO

Think I'm going to wait it out a bit, see if we get a better SP later today or tomorrow, maybe let all this week's expire and see where we are Monday (costs me around $300 to buy all those contracts back early). Perhaps we're in the 180's, but then I'd sell some puts anyway, and whatever I could get for the 220's...

Anyway, there's no sense rushing into a trade right this instant

I am mulling-over selling $1 strikes regardless on Monday morning, I don't know the stats, but I suspect they go ITM very rarely...

We'll see, I don't know, really, this dump after great earnings has bamboozled me somewhat
 
Almost full day trading volume in the first two hours and the SP is up. I hope this means 200 will be a solid floor going forward.

I'm literally at risk of losing almost everything because of all margin requirements from all my BPSs. I thought I could manage them when they went ITM, but you can only roll down and out so much (ie not very much). I really think the only thing we should be trading are cash secured Puts and share secured CC like I was doing successfully before I discovered this thread (so you can't lose money).

This morning, I was forced to sell 200X CC for Jan 2024 at just a 206 strike. This will be devastating if the SP is at 400 (which I fully expect) in 2024. But I had to buy Puts (I did 200 strike for Jan 2024 because I can't afford to keep buying monthly Puts at a loss if the SP stays low).

If things don't improve, I will have to do the same for my remaining shares, meaning that I will have Jan 2024 CC at 206 on half my shares, with the other half having CC at 230, 233, and 266. F - ME!!! 😥
sorry to hear about this... i am curious - is it an option to "reboot" and start all over again (ie cash out everything)? have a new beginning on a smaller account and no more baggage...

remembering all the lessons learned and trading only CSP/CC, will the acct size be healthier in 2024/2025 compared to just prolonging the current status?

also, apply the capital loss against the capital gains of the previous years? (i know in Canada, we can reclaim loss against the gains of the last 3 yrs; may result in tax refund due to reassessment)
 
sorry to hear about this... i am curious - is it an option to "reboot" and start all over again (ie cash out everything)? have a new beginning on a smaller account and no more baggage...

remembering all the lessons learned and trading only CSP/CC, will the acct size be healthier in 2024/2025 compared to just prolonging the current status?

also, apply the capital loss against the capital gains of the previous years? (i know in Canada, we can reclaim loss against the gains of the last 3 yrs)
Yes, I can reboot and start fresh with around 1/3 of my original shares (I've already lost 15,000 shares for rolling expenses). I've been thinking about it every day.

The debate is: Is it better to have -
1) 30,000 shares to write 2024 CC against (400 strike so I have money to live, but it probably won't limit my future growth with the shares)

or

2) 78000 shares backing $12M in BPSs for Jan 2024, and CC against all of them for 206, 230, 266 (along with 600X Jan 2024 200 strike Puts that I can salvage some value from in a few months of the SP is rising).

Right now I'm leaning toward 2) because being able to write 480 more CC contracts in the future could be helpful, and I don't know if the SP will be above XXX in a year (which means I can roll, etc.). But if the SP isn't above 330 in January 2024 I will have to find money to roll the BPSs (probably new CCs).

P.S. - I tried inviting you to a private chat with a small group about my mess, but TMC wouldn't let me add you....
 
Took profits from last Fridays buying of $227 calls -
Bought 100 (only wanted 25, but I'm a silly goose)
Sold 75 on Monday - sold the remaining Tuesday (should have sold all on Tuesday when they went in the money)

Just now BTO January 23' - $280 Calls for $5 each
Looking to add more on weakness tomorrow if the opportunity arises.
Next week TWTR overhang disappears and the 3 day rule for information should be coming into view.

I like the set up for next week going into the fed meeting first week of November.

Not advice - but I am loading up medium term calls here - will continue to scale in on weakness.
 
Yes, I can reboot and start fresh with around 1/3 of my original shares (I've already lost 15,000 shares for rolling expenses). I've been thinking about it every day.

The debate is: Is it better to have -
1) 30,000 shares to write 2024 CC against (400 strike so I have money to live, but it probably won't limit my future growth with the shares)

or

2) 78000 shares backing $12M in BPSs for Jan 2024, and CC against all of them for 206, 230, 266 (along with 600X Jan 2024 200 strike Puts that I can salvage some value from in a few months of the SP is rising).

Right now I'm leaning toward 2) because being able to write 480 more CC contracts in the future could be helpful, and I don't know if the SP will be above XXX in a year (which means I can roll, etc.). But if the SP isn't above 330 in January 2024 I will have to find money to roll the BPSs (probably new CCs).

P.S. - I tried inviting you to a private chat with a small group about my mess, but TMC wouldn't let me add you....
I can't advise you with any kind of analysis, but if it were me I'd be looking at the probabilities of option 2 working out. Basically you need the SP to be above 266 for the whole thing to come out in the wash, right? Problem with that is it's not at all guaranteed

Imagine it's this time last year and you're in the same situation, but with trades +$100 on the strikes, would have sounded pretty reasonable last October/November to setup the same construction 306, 330, 366 & -p300's when were trading 900-1250 range, but in fact you'd be really deep in the shite right now

Who's to say the SP won't be down this time next year - look at the earnings we just had, sure, not stellar, but way better than the rest of the industry, and the earnings call was more bullish than I've heard in the past, and yet here we are. Yes, we have the Twitter fiasco underlining everything, but will be something else in a few months, and a few months after that, this is the way it goes with Elon, CT will be delayed, FSD will be banned by the NHTSA, Putain will invade Poland, we don't know...

So just check your assumptions, that's all
 
Yes, I can reboot and start fresh with around 1/3 of my original shares (I've already lost 15,000 shares for rolling expenses). I've been thinking about it every day.

The debate is: Is it better to have -
1) 30,000 shares to write 2024 CC against (400 strike so I have money to live, but it probably won't limit my future growth with the shares)

or

2) 78000 shares backing $12M in BPSs for Jan 2024, and CC against all of them for 206, 230, 266 (along with 600X Jan 2024 200 strike Puts that I can salvage some value from in a few months of the SP is rising).

Right now I'm leaning toward 2) because being able to write 480 more CC contracts in the future could be helpful, and I don't know if the SP will be above XXX in a year (which means I can roll, etc.). But if the SP isn't above 330 in January 2024 I will have to find money to roll the BPSs (probably new CCs).

P.S. - I tried inviting you to a private chat with a small group about my mess, but TMC wouldn't let me add you....

I'm margin constrained too.

Rather than fight the shorts, why don't you ride their wave? I sold a synthetic short. Sold 500 $207.50 Calls and Bought 500 $207.50 Puts for next Friday's (10/28) expiry. The cost of the Put was completely offset by the proceeds from the Calls. Will close if we touch the lower Bollinger Band at $190. If we rip higher once Elon clarifies no stock sales, it is much easier to roll an in the money call with a short time value than a Call Leap. If you aren't comfortable with the $207.50 then sell 2X Calls at $217 for every $207.50 Put. This might even pay a small credit.

My goal is just to survive until the TWTR cloud disappears. In all likelyhood this cloud is gone by next Friday.
 
I can't advise you with any kind of analysis, but if it were me I'd be looking at the probabilities of option 2 working out. Basically you need the SP to be above 266 for the whole thing to come out in the wash, right? Problem with that is it's not at all guaranteed

Imagine it's this time last year and you're in the same situation, but with trades +$100 on the strikes, would have sounded pretty reasonable last October/November to setup the same construction 306, 330, 366 & -p300's when were trading 900-1250 range, but in fact you'd be really deep in the shite right now

Who's to say the SP won't be down this time next year - look at the earnings we just had, sure, not stellar, but way better than the rest of the industry, and the earnings call was more bullish than I've heard in the past, and yet here we are. Yes, we have the Twitter fiasco underlining everything, but will be something else in a few months, and a few months after that, this is the way it goes with Elon, CT will be delayed, FSD will be banned by the NHTSA, Putain will invade Poland, we don't know...

So just check your assumptions, that's all

3 months ago we were saying it was the last bad earnings because of Shanghai temporary shutdown and Bitcoin impairment.

Now it’s the TWTR deal overhand and macro from Putin waxing his Nuke button.

I’d like to believe next Friday will be the last day of my life I will have to create multiple plans to avoid margin calls but every 3 months it’s the same story again.

Selling CCs in the last 3 weeks made me expand my margin a bit, pay checks coming in, now I need to buckle up and pray we don’t go to 150 with all the TSLA shorting and Elon about to sell 5B on the market open.
 
Yes, I can reboot and start fresh with around 1/3 of my original shares (I've already lost 15,000 shares for rolling expenses). I've been thinking about it every day.

The debate is: Is it better to have -
1) 30,000 shares to write 2024 CC against (400 strike so I have money to live, but it probably won't limit my future growth with the shares)

or

2) 78000 shares backing $12M in BPSs for Jan 2024, and CC against all of them for 206, 230, 266 (along with 600X Jan 2024 200 strike Puts that I can salvage some value from in a few months of the SP is rising).

Right now I'm leaning toward 2) because being able to write 480 more CC contracts in the future could be helpful, and I don't know if the SP will be above XXX in a year (which means I can roll, etc.). But if the SP isn't above 330 in January 2024 I will have to find money to roll the BPSs (probably new CCs).

P.S. - I tried inviting you to a private chat with a small group about my mess, but TMC wouldn't let me add you....
I cannot imagine the stress you are going through, I feel for you man. While you are much more experienced than I, is it possible at all to flip roll half the bps to bcs? I did this, albeit going from bcs to bps during the hertz runup last fall. Would that not at least cut the margin requirement in half? Sorry if this is a dumb idea, just really trying to help.
 
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Don’t like TWTR stuff at all, hate it, but I don’t see how EM’s sale price points so far don’t make everyone else look like bagholders. Regardless of how he liquidated, don’t see how you could say he has no idea how to game the market.

Investment bankers come with their own issues and fees. Secondary placements as well.

If he is suddenly liquidating again in the next couple of days, I will be more open to your interpretation.
Yer I made a post about this in the investors round table about how stupid I feel every day and that if I met myself on the street I would punch myself in the face. So yes, I would 100% love to exit at his price points and get back in now.

But yes let's see what happens next week and we'll see if his smarter than we think or if his literally just selling at random points and he lucked out at his previous 2 points and ran out of luck this time around.
 
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I cannot imagine the stress you are going through, I feel for you man. While you are much more experienced than I, is it possible at all to flip roll half the bps to bcs? I did this, albeit going from bcs to bps during the hertz runup last fall. Would that not at least cut the margin requirement in half? Sorry if this is a dumb idea, just really trying to help.
I've looked into split rolling many times. The problem is 330/360 calls spreads fetch so little it doesn't really help, and just adds a bunch of 2024 upside risk.
 
I can't advise you with any kind of analysis, but if it were me I'd be looking at the probabilities of option 2 working out. Basically you need the SP to be above 266 for the whole thing to come out in the wash, right? Problem with that is it's not at all guaranteed

Imagine it's this time last year and you're in the same situation, but with trades +$100 on the strikes, would have sounded pretty reasonable last October/November to setup the same construction 306, 330, 366 & -p300's when were trading 900-1250 range, but in fact you'd be really deep in the shite right now

Who's to say the SP won't be down this time next year - look at the earnings we just had, sure, not stellar, but way better than the rest of the industry, and the earnings call was more bullish than I've heard in the past, and yet here we are. Yes, we have the Twitter fiasco underlining everything, but will be something else in a few months, and a few months after that, this is the way it goes with Elon, CT will be delayed, FSD will be banned by the NHTSA, Putain will invade Poland, we don't know...

So just check your assumptions, that's all
I think at 266 I'm much better off with 78,000 shares that have expiring CC ATM in just ITM, than with 30,000 shares that have only gained 20%. I would have to roll a lot of BPSs, but hopefully the calls would generate enough income to do it. I'm not sure.... 🤔
 
Massive shorting. Seems to me we might sit in the 200 - 210 range. The gamma at 190 is reduced, spotlight on 200 , double that of the 210 put , at -0.24 , calls cashed in today. I've been wrong always ... just wanting to up the spirit some. Good luck to all , hope we each find a way to wiggle out the tight spot we are in.

TSLA-TotalGamma-20Oct2022.png
TSLA-TotalGamma-19Oct2022.png