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There is no way predicting this market.I was afraid that my 202.5 sold CCs for next Friday were going to go underwater and be un salvageable. Now I fear we are going for a lower low. I thought good CPI, PPI report and dovish rate hikes had turned the market sentiment around
if 177.12 breaks, maybe ~174 is next?I was afraid that my 202.5 sold CCs for next Friday were going to go underwater and be un salvageable. Now I fear we are going for a lower low. I thought good CPI, PPI report and dovish rate hikes had turned the market sentiment around
Yeah I am hesitating to roll down my CCs for next Friday from 202.5 to 190 back where they were initially. At least I avoided assignment Last Friday.There is no way predicting this market.
Looks like all the positives from last week are gone again.
To remember again: don't be doubtful to roll a CC a bit further just to be safe, because you will eventually get an opportunity to roll back (lower) or close for little or no loss. In these market circumstances that is.
There is no way predicting this market.
Looks like all the positives from last week are gone again.
To remember again: don't be doubtful to roll a CC a bit further just to be safe, because you will eventually get an opportunity to roll back (lower) or close for little or no loss. In these market circumstances that is.
Until the jobs market gets worse, the Fed is not going to give an all-clear signal on rates. Wage inflation is the 2nd largest driver of overall inflation (behind energy). The market is going to keep oscillating in a side-ways window until that happens.
Not advice.
This is holiday season, of course, there are a tons of seasonal jobs, I just wonder why the big tech layoff didn't reflect in the job data last week, maybe they will next month? I think the jobs market will cool down at some ways next month or January.Until the jobs market gets worse, the Fed is not going to give an all-clear signal on rates. Wage inflation is the 2nd largest driver of overall inflation (behind energy). The market is going to keep oscillating in a side-ways window until that happens.
Not advice.
This is holiday season, of course, there are a tons of seasonal jobs, I just wonder why the big tech layoff didn't reflect in the job data last week, maybe they will next month? I think the jobs market will cool down at some ways next month or January.
Btw, I STO -p165 when TSLA is quite oversold in small timeframes, and it is 32% profit now. I'll take it, probably done for the day.
Isn't the jobs report also a lagging indicator? All the companies that are around my area have had big layoffs. Lame.
177.12 holding supp last 5 weeks (100% fib)Based on John Snow’s prediction a week or two ago I created a buy order for $175.50. Thanks John, it just executed. I don’t follow this thread too closely, but what’s the latest possible low price target? I’ll try to catch up with John Snow’s posts later today.
If it bounces back up from here, we can see an inverse head and shoulder and test 200 again. Nothing confirms yet, until we actually have a nice green day.If we continue drifting back up, does today's action have any significance as a higher low?
Off thread, but you can't get a work visa into the US right now. I have highly qualified workers with roles I can't fill here in the US on a 1 year waiting list. Apparently state dept can't hire a few dozen people to process applications. Sucks for my customers here and for the people who could make more money here and for the economy that could grow faster with the right people.It is a lagging indicator, because people have to file for unemployment benefits or the company they were laid off from has to make a report. So small companies won't show up (few to no reports), and people looking for a job but not filing yet for unemployment benefits won't show up in the statistics.
Labor Participation Rate is also a really big problem - lots of Boomers retired during the pandemic, and have not returned to work. I suspect, sadly, that destroying a large portion of their nest egg saved up in IRAs and 401ks is part of the plan to pressure at least some of them to come back to the work force.
Tech aside, the major issue with "job openings" is almost all in the entry-level jobs (hospitality, food service, etc.). It is going to be a game of chicken to get people to take these positions, it's not until their savings dry up enough that they "have to work" that those will fill.
Alternatively, and I've said this before, we have an "immigration problem" by all accounts. Even being a moderate that believes people should enter a country legally and seek citizenship legally, I would have no problems with something like an "expanded work visa" for people to come here legally and fill those positions. They want the jobs, we have them, and our citizens apparently don't want them. Win win.
I had not heard that before .... so I searched. Couldn't find it anywhere. Link ?Until the jobs market gets worse, the Fed is not going to give an all-clear signal on rates. Wage inflation is the 2nd largest driver of overall inflation (behind energy). The market is going to keep oscillating in a side-ways window until that happens.
It looks like big wave 1 has been cut short. Initially I thought since wave 1 of 1 traveled 23 points, the entire big wave 1 should go beyond 215.@dl003 Can you give us a read on what’s going on with TSLA?
So something I'll be paying full attention to tomorrow is the rising wedge marked in the screenshot below. Notice how the it terminates at 200 on Monday 11/28. Conveniently, that's where the hourly 200 EMA will be. This EMA has acted as resistance against many first spikes from the low in TSLA. Rising wedge is a bearish pattern, which in this case terminates right at this strong resistance. If TSLA does not fall out of this rising wedge on Friday then I'll bet it will be rejected at 200 on Monday, go all the way back to 172 before bouncing. This will create an inverse head & shoulder pattern which could take it all the way to 228 - the target for wave 3/C. Notice I'm writing 3/C because right now I can't say for sure 100% if this is a new bull run or a zig zag correction. The TSLA fanboi in me says the former while the chartist says trade the chart and wait for confirmation. If I were you, I'd go and draw this rising wedge on the chart at my earliest convenience and keep and eye on it tomorrow.
View attachment 877952
What's the confirmation? 2 scenarios:
1/ Either TSLA decisively punctures through 228 and the blue S/R line above; or
2/ TSLA pulls back shallowly no lower than 200 before going up again - takes a while to play out so 200 will be key
What this blue S/R you ask? It has acted as support and resistance at multiple major junctions in 2022.
View attachment 877954
The other scenario is TSLA will pull back first thing tomorrow, falling out of the wedge. My wave count favors this scenario but I'll keep an open mind.
Here're all the times the hourly 200 EMA has acted as resistance against the first spike from a major low in TSLA.
View attachment 877963