Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ice]

Going to make TSLA go even higher. I just need maybe 1 more contract exercised and I'll be completely out of margin. I'll have fun stay poor. As it stands I have only 42% of my peak # of chairs. and the value of those chairs declined as a double hit. My margin account currently has a massive loss because of the leverage (non margin one fared much better), I have to protect what I do have left and sacrifice future gains.

Interestingly elon talked about margin yesterday. Musk says wise to avoid margin loans during macroeconomic risks

STO 12/16 -185c $5.45, SP around $181.93

Positions: 12/9 -200c ($3.39 premium) 12/16 -185c ($5.45 premium) 12/16 -210c ($2.62 premium) 1/20/2023 -175c ($14.65 premium)

Anecdotal stories but I got spooked, sold another batch of shares in my margin account for $180.38, maybe bulls can take my shares and get rich. by the way I discovered that I could actually work around the cover call restriction on my brokeage, I sold CC's earlier, and I sold the shares after, for now I have more short calls than I have shares to cover then,(doesn't matter because 12/9 -200c would probably expire worthless even after hours) I should have just sold the shares flat out last week at $194 instead of trying to milk the $3.39 premium at 12/9 -200c, only to sell shares at $180 so that's still an additional $11/Share loss.

Anyway maybe I'm a rainbow bear. I live in one of the largest EV markets in Canada/NA, the lower mainland, where we have the highest gas price in North America most of the time and high % EV adoption, and I heard from a friend shopping for a tesla that that Tesla actually have stock on cars (She told me stocks in the surrey/richmond delivery centers), and the sales have time to talk to her every couple of days. I haven't seen this in a long time, so either demand is weak, or production is actually catching up to demand. (Tesla Canada financing rate 6.69%). when I bought my tesla's the sales are usually very busy, ignores your emails and you have to wait for your car, there is never stock. This is all very surprising to me as we approach what is traditionally the busiest month with the busiest quarter. Perhaps Tesla is dumping their Q4 USA inventory in Canada as the Americans wait for the biden tax credit, which could explain this, but if not then this could be a canary in the coal mine with the North american Supply/demand curve. I hope I'm just a rainbow bear that worries too much, and I will have fun stay poor and be wrong at selling the bottom. But just in case, I'm not sure if a North American slowdown is priced in, tesla may have to cut prices china style which will hurt margins, EPS, and compress the stock further, we may be in some short term pain (long term i m still bullish) I'm not willing to gamble with the bank's money, only my own, so sold some more shares. I'm overall still heavily in TSLA (with my own $).

I'm 100% cash account now, no more margin, do have a small-ish cash position for rolling options or buying the dip.

tldr: I'm a rainbow bear in the short term so sold more stocks at $180.

Positions: 12/9 -200c ($3.39 premium) 12/16 -185c ($5.45 premium) 12/16 -210c ($2.62 premium) 1/20/2023 -175c ($14.65 premium)

 

[Yoona]

anyone daytrading today would have made ~$8000 (per 1000 shares) before 11am, just by following the rising blue line (buy blue, sell red)

 

[OrthoSurg]

My new life objective is to buy 3000 TSLA at 350

 

[Yoona]

TSLA is today's #2 in S&P 500 and #2 in Nasdaq 100

rare green in sea of red

 

[Cherry Wine]

TSLA is today's #2 in S&P 500 and #2 in Nasdaq 100

rare green in sea of red

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I have to wonder if the news that the production shutdown in Shanghai in December may just be a week of downtime for the Model Y line during the last week of the year, which could easily be for line maintenance, etc., is helping to dispel some of the China demand fears, thereby leading to a reversal of some of the drop based on that original headline. Also goes to show how such information can be manipulated if that's what was twisted into a "20% production reduction" for the month of December storyline.

 

[BornToFly]

I have to wonder if the news that the production shutdown in Shanghai in December may just be a week of downtime for the Model Y line during the last week of the year, which could easily be for line maintenance, etc., is helping to dispel some of the China demand fears, thereby leading to a reversal of some of the drop based on that original headline. Also goes to show how such information can be manipulated if that's what was twisted into a "20% production reduction" for the month of December storyline.

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I've been posting on Twitter that any stoppage is obviously for line maintenance, but that doesn't get the desired clicks and drop in the SP as pretending that there is "No Demand..."

 

[juanmedina]

I have to wonder if the news that the production shutdown in Shanghai in December may just be a week of downtime for the Model Y line during the last week of the year, which could easily be for line maintenance, etc., is helping to dispel some of the China demand fears, thereby leading to a reversal of some of the drop based on that original headline. Also goes to show how such information can be manipulated if that's what was twisted into a "20% production reduction" for the month of December storyline.

View attachment 883236

So I talked with a buddy that works at the biggest BMW plant in world here in South Carolina and he told me that BMW will shut down production for retooling and maintenance from tomorrow to January 2nd. I asked him if this was normal compared other years and he said no.

 

[OrthoSurg]

In 2022 I have totally learned and experienced what the adage « The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent » meant. Underwater puts can’t be held underwater for ever. They get assigned like trying to hold a balloon underwater with one hand.

 

[samppa]

Hi guys.. I haven't been active lately, but I'm still here

At the drop from 300->170 I ran out of liquidity, had to sell around half my shares, buy back some underwater puts, managed to dig enough cash to save the account. It's ok for now, all itm puts I have is -320p jan2025, and these are now fully cash covered. Been selling weekly otm calls 15% out, not much income but it's ok.

I founded my own company and went back to work. It's going great, I already have a bunch of customers and quite enjoying the work. It's a good motivator when you're working for yourself, instead of being employed. So been busy.

Good news is that Iooks like I can purchase those shares back on the cheap for quite a while..

 

[corduroy]

Hoping for some suggestions here for some long calls in my IRA. I don't trade much in my IRA, mainly it's my HODL account. These were LEAPs purchased almost 3 years ago as Jan 2023 $400s, rolled up to Mar 2023 $600 at one point and now split to Mar 2023 $200s. They were obviously DITM and up hugely most of the time I held them but now down 80% from my original investment. I hold little cash in the IRA so I can't do the Papafox method of free rolling. I've tried the sell first, buy back roll method but I'm not crazy about that.

I am feeling very bearish about the the stock (not the company) and now even Elon is predicting recession until Q2 2024. I'm considering selling the calls and buying shares to de-leverage and salvage some remaining value. Any ideas?

 

[EVNow]

My new life objective is to buy 3000 TSLA at 350

You want mine ?

 

[traxila]

Hoping for some suggestions here for some long calls in my IRA. I don't trade much in my IRA, mainly it's my HODL account. These were LEAPs purchased almost 3 years ago as Jan 2023 $400s, rolled up to Mar 2023 $600 at one point and now split to Mar 2023 $200s. They were obviously DITM and up hugely most of the time I held them but now down 80% from my original investment. I hold little cash in the IRA so I can't do the Papafox method of free rolling. I've tried the sell first, buy back roll method but I'm not crazy about that.

I am feeling very bearish about the the stock (not the company) and now even Elon is predicting recession until Q2 2024. I'm considering selling the calls and buying shares to de-leverage and salvage some remaining value. Any ideas?

Ouch.

The easy answer is to wait for the stock to rip over its spectacular results over the next six weeks and then unload the LEAPs and pick up the pieces best you can.

Or course, this has probably been your strategy repeatedly over the past ten months, and it just has not happened. I know it has not for me.

Tough spot almost all of us are in.

First off, take Elon's predictions with a grain of salt. He is brilliant but not infallible. Also, even if he is correct that the economy will start doing well come Q2 2024, don't forget the market and SP will have ripped higher probably six months before. Always has in the past.

He might be completely wrong. The war ending, China opening up and the US labor market loosening up could happen in a hurry and everything may look different 3 months from now. Or much worse.

The problem is of course that your IRA is not prepared to weather a bad dip, which I completely understand.

Your options are expiring soon. Your LEAPs did not seem to be a gamble when you executed on them, but they are a pure gamble now. They are currently around 15, which makes me cringe to think about.

Decide whether you are OK with your sunk costs right now, liquidate and buy whatever shares you can with the funds liberated. If you can't handle that, then let it ride and hope the market will ignore the macros sucking and reward TSLA for its record breaking quarter. Buckle up for possible 100% loss.

Sorry could not offer more.

 

[EVNow]

now even Elon is predicting recession until Q2 2024.

And as we know Elon is very good with predicting timelines ...

 

[OrthoSurg]

Hi guys.. I haven't been active lately, but I'm still here

At the drop from 300->170 I ran out of liquidity, had to sell around half my shares, buy back some underwater puts, managed to dig enough cash to save the account. It's ok for now, all itm puts I have is -320p jan2025, and these are now fully cash covered. Been selling weekly otm calls 15% out, not much income but it's ok.

I founded my own company and went back to work. It's going great, I already have a bunch of customers and quite enjoying the work. It's a good motivator when you're working for yourself, instead of being employed. So been busy.

Good news is that Iooks like I can purchase those shares back on the cheap for quite a while..

Nice to see you are doing well. Even with survivor bias here, we are all way down.

Ouch.

The easy answer is to wait for the stock to rip over its spectacular results over the next six weeks and then unload the LEAPs and pick up the pieces best you can.

Or course, this has probably been your strategy repeatedly over the past ten months, and it just has not happened. I know it has not for me.

Tough spot almost all of us are in.

First off, take Elon's predictions with a grain of salt. He is brilliant but not infallible. Also, even if he is correct that the economy will start doing well come Q2 2024, don't forget the market and SP will have ripped higher probably six months before. Always has in the past.

He might be completely wrong. The war ending, China opening up and the US labor market loosening up could happen in a hurry and everything may look different 3 months from now. Or much worse.

The problem is of course that your IRA is not prepared to weather a bad dip, which I completely understand.

Your options are expiring soon. Your LEAPs did not seem to be a gamble when you executed on them, but they are a pure gamble now. They are currently around 15, which makes me cringe to think about.

Decide whether you are OK with your sunk costs right now, liquidate and buy whatever shares you can with the funds liberated. If you can't handle that, then let it ride and hope the market will ignore the macros sucking and reward TSLA for its record breaking quarter. Buckle up for possible 100% loss.

Sorry could not offer more.

when reading a post like this and hearing Cory saying he’s extremely bearish on TSLA and that we are going to 138, I can’t offer any solution but to hope for a rally when everybody expects it go way lower.

 

[JustMe]

Nice to see you are doing well. Even with survivor bias here, we are all way down.

when reading a post like this and hearing Cory saying he’s extremely bearish on TSLA and that we are going to 138, I can’t offer any solution but to hope for a rally when everybody expects it go way lower.

Do you have reason to believe Cory’s prediction?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Do you have reason to believe Cory’s prediction?

Well, he was right for the 160s.

 

[mongo]

Hoping for some suggestions here for some long calls in my IRA. I don't trade much in my IRA, mainly it's my HODL account. These were LEAPs purchased almost 3 years ago as Jan 2023 $400s, rolled up to Mar 2023 $600 at one point and now split to Mar 2023 $200s. They were obviously DITM and up hugely most of the time I held them but now down 80% from my original investment. I hold little cash in the IRA so I can't do the Papafox method of free rolling. I've tried the sell first, buy back roll method but I'm not crazy about that.

I am feeling very bearish about the the stock (not the company) and now even Elon is predicting recession until Q2 2024. I'm considering selling the calls and buying shares to de-leverage and salvage some remaining value. Any ideas?

Non advice:
Look at the value, not the position. Don't hold onto that specific item just because it is down and you want it to be less so. Every time you don't close a position, you are effectively choosing to open it (ignoring the bid/ ask spread).

The Mar 23s have some $ value ($1,475 a contract). An IRA is non-taxed on transactions, so you have freedom of movement. What do you think has the best return (or lowest risk, if that is your metric) for that money (value now, not the basis)? If you think TSLA will be flat to down, then maybe shares or cash. If you think up then maybe shares or calls.

Also look at overall delta, even at a less than 1:1 roll out, you may have a position with higher exposure than shares (if you think it will go up).

Like I said, non advice, esp since mine are waaaayyyy down.

 

[vikings123]

Hoping for some suggestions here for some long calls in my IRA. I don't trade much in my IRA, mainly it's my HODL account. These were LEAPs purchased almost 3 years ago as Jan 2023 $400s, rolled up to Mar 2023 $600 at one point and now split to Mar 2023 $200s. They were obviously DITM and up hugely most of the time I held them but now down 80% from my original investment. I hold little cash in the IRA so I can't do the Papafox method of free rolling. I've tried the sell first, buy back roll method but I'm not crazy about that.

I am feeling very bearish about the the stock (not the company) and now even Elon is predicting recession until Q2 2024. I'm considering selling the calls and buying shares to de-leverage and salvage some remaining value. Any ideas?

I would also look into the option of selling the LEAPS and use the cash to sell aggressive cash secured puts.

IMO I don’t see TSLA going into 150 area until Q4 P&D or earnings. You need something major to see a macro breakdown.

I’m however concerned about recent comments from Elon regarding Margin use and recession. I think he is seeing the stress on Tesla’s fundamentals and giving us clues. I have been defensive for the last two or three months and see no reason to change that.

 

[juanmedina]

I would also look into the option of selling the LEAPS and use the cash to sell aggressive cash secured puts.

IMO I don’t see TSLA going into 150 area until Q4 P&D or earnings. You need something major to see a macro breakdown.

I’m however concerned about recent comments from Elon regarding Margin use and recession. I think he is seeing the stress on Tesla’s fundamentals and giving us clues. I have been defensive for the last two or three months and see no reason to change that.

Elon also said Q4 will be epic maybe we should take advantage of P&D and hedge a lot for ER depending on what they say on the call . He is really confusing.

Here is an interesting video of what has happened before when the Fed pivots. I wonder what will happen to Tesla as the interest goes down.

 

[Yoona]

We'll see how this goes for me right now - it IS what I'm acting on (thus the 170/155s already opened for next week despite today being an up day).

i am curious, what is the reasoning behind 155? ie 15 width

is it TA? income? delta? feeling?

coz i opened 170/150 and then i thought 20 was too tight and somewhat regretting it

converted 12/16 -p175 to -p170/+p150, maybe will still move it lower