Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[juanmedina]

I really think we need a decent P&D report. Everything else seems to be lining up very well. I feel like anything over 400 K will set off a relief rally. Or not!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605705199074643969

Here is another guy suggesting not to short Tesla; the chart master :

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605634099137449984

I was reading some of Puru's tweets and he thinks Tesla will be lower in Q1 becuase he expects the indices to go down 20-15%. He said that he will go long on growth companies when the Fed pivots. Which I assume will happen in Q1.

I am a terrible trader but I am trying to plan accordingly. If somehow we get to $190's which right now feels like impossible. I am thinking about selling half of my Tesla holding and hedging half with covered call Leaps.

 

[kabin]

This should help sales but...

Tesla (TSLA) increases discount on cars delivered this month

 

[JSML]

Friday is a short trading day as well - don't wait for 4pm as the market closes at 1pm.

Volume should only be 200M shares by then anyway... /s

I am not seeing that the market will close early this Friday. Can someone else collaborate and confirm?

 

[mickle]

I am not seeing that the market will close early this Friday. Can someone else collaborate and confirm?

No, its a regular day.

 

[Jim Holder]

i his analysis, i made notes and tonight i will copy all his lines.

He provides a link to his TradingView charts (!) for members to his channel (I think it’s $5/mo; there are a few tiers). I love this feature and it save me tons of time. Well worth the money. Every couple of days I follow the link and copy it to my own TradingView account, and then load his most recent chart. (His charts include many many other stocks that he follows as well.)

 

[BornToFly]

This should help sales but...

Tesla (TSLA) increases discount on cars delivered this month

They don't have a choice with the IRA starting in 10 days. This shows the stupidity of politicians passing a credit with a future start date. They clearly don't think like consumers or business owners....

 

[OrthoSurg]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605278413153095682

Is it common for shorter who short from 300 to 137 to then short from 137 to 70? Is there a real possibility we go down to 70? And once we reach 70 then they will tweet they see an acceleration to 35? Is it a disease? You shirt endlessly and see more and more shorting opportunities?

Or bullish traders see that high volume selling capitulation happened in the last 3 trading days, now there is no more sellers and it’s time for a big bounce?

 

[Yoona]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1605735047394230272

 

[ice]

This should help sales but...

Tesla (TSLA) increases discount on cars delivered this month

Thanks for this. I just checked on the Tesla Canadian site and it seems like Tesla is also offering $5000CAD for a new model 3/Y between Dec 21st and Dec 31st, 2022. They also changed the order page from "order now" to "buy now". I didn't click around too much but seems like I can't get to the custom order page anymore, there is a brief flash with a menu button that lets u custom order but it disappears quickly...

There are no Canadian rebate incoming for the model 3 or Y because it is priced above $55k CAD for cars and $60k CAD for SUVs. Unlike the USA with the incoming $7.5k IRA incentive, for Canada unless Tesla is planning to reduce the price (to under $55k for the model 3 (Currently 62k i believe), and the model Y LR AWD to $60k and under (currently $87k CAD) in 2023, I don't see why Tesla need to offer $5000 other than there is an excess inventory (over supply, under demand?), but the confusing thing is they are matching the USA dates (ends dec 31st, 2022). If they do reduce the MSRP, there goes the gross margin....(yes i know bulls talk about margin could be maintained if they can keep pushing cost down.....)

For the first time in years, I actually see inventory now on the tesla website, they were usually completely empty, only the USA site have inventory cars. 2 weeks ago I was spooked, because my friend who was shopping was told by Tesla sales that they had inventory in the Richmond and Surrey delivery centers, but at the time I don't think many cars showed up on the site. She indirectly saved my margin account if i recall correctly that was a green bounce day and I sold shares at $180 to get out of margin....I still have a margin account instead of being wiped out (without injecting capital) thanks to that tip...I can't remember but $138 would have been my margin call point and we are pretty much there, I would have been in margin call now, that was a close one...

I'm actually feeling very bearish and might actually pull the trigger on selling ITM cc (or even DITM cc) if there is a green day/bounce....

My apologies for spreading potential FUD/fear, but thought I need to give a bearish interpretation that news just to be the devil's advocate...I hope i m wrong and this is the bottom, and good luck to the bulls with my assigned shares if I end up selling the ITM cc's....I'll have fun stay poor..

 

[adiggs]

Thanks for this. I just checked on the Tesla Canadian site and it seems like Tesla is also offering $5000CAD for a new model 3/Y between Dec 21st and Dec 31st, 2022. They also changed the order page from "order now" to "buy now". I didn't click around too much but seems like I can't get to the customer order page anymore, there is a brief flash with a menu button that lets u custom order but it disappears quickly...

There are no Canadian rebate incoming for the model 3 or Y because its' priced above $55k CAD for cars and $60k CAD for SUVs. Unlike the USA with the incoming $7.5k IRA incentive, for Canada unless Tesla is planning to reduce the price (to under $55k for the model 3 (Currently 62k i believe), and the model Y LR AWD to $60k and under (currently $87k CAD) in 2023, I don't see why Tesla need to offer $5000 other than there is an excess inventory (over supply, under demand?), but the confusing thing is they are matching the USA dates (ends dec 31st, 2022). If they do reduce the MSRP, there goes the gross margin....(yes i know bulls talk about margin could be maintained if they can keep pushing cost down.....)

For the first time in years, I actually see inventory now on the tesla website, they were usually completely empty, only the USA site have inventory cars. 2 weeks ago I was spooked, because my friend who was shopping was told by Tesla sales that they had inventory in the Richmond and Surrey delivery centers, but at the time I don't think many cars showed up on the site. She indirectly saved my margin account if i recall correctly that was a green bounce day and I sold shares at $180 to get out of margin....I still have a margin account instead of being wiped out (without injecting capital) thanks to that tip...

I'm actually feeling very bearish and might actually pull the trigger on selling ITM cc (or even DITM cc) if there is a green day/bounce....

My apologies for spreading potential FUD/fear, but thought I need to give a bearish interpretation that news just to be the devil's advocate...I hope i m wrong and this is the bottom, and good luck to the bulls with my shares if I end up selling....I'll have fun stay poor..
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I freely admit to my opinion on this being a long term investor perspective, and therefore likely to get me into trouble with my short term option sales.

Nonetheless, a few thoughts....

I would actually like to see some inventory appear in US and Canada. A long order backlog is NOT a benefit to the business - its a detriment as it means that, functionally, anybody that is suddenly in the market for a car now isn't in the market for a Tesla. I know that is a significant chunk of the market at any point in time, but I don't have a source I can point anybody at to put numbers to it. Of course there is such a thing as too much inventory, but I think its not out of line to have test drive vehicles available again at galleries, as well as having some cars available for immediate delivery.

I don't know what that right balance of inventory is for this purpose - only that zero inventory for impulse / need-it-now purchases, as well as zero inventory for test drive vehicles are significant headwinds to demand.

 

[vikings123]

Thanks for this. I just checked on the Tesla Canadian site and it seems like Tesla is also offering $5000CAD for a new model 3/Y between Dec 21st and Dec 31st, 2022. They also changed the order page from "order now" to "buy now". I didn't click around too much but seems like I can't get to the customer order page anymore, there is a brief flash with a menu button that lets u custom order but it disappears quickly...

There are no Canadian rebate incoming for the model 3 or Y because it is priced above $55k CAD for cars and $60k CAD for SUVs. Unlike the USA with the incoming $7.5k IRA incentive, for Canada unless Tesla is planning to reduce the price (to under $55k for the model 3 (Currently 62k i believe), and the model Y LR AWD to $60k and under (currently $87k CAD) in 2023, I don't see why Tesla need to offer $5000 other than there is an excess inventory (over supply, under demand?), but the confusing thing is they are matching the USA dates (ends dec 31st, 2022). If they do reduce the MSRP, there goes the gross margin....(yes i know bulls talk about margin could be maintained if they can keep pushing cost down.....)

For the first time in years, I actually see inventory now on the tesla website, they were usually completely empty, only the USA site have inventory cars. 2 weeks ago I was spooked, because my friend who was shopping was told by Tesla sales that they had inventory in the Richmond and Surrey delivery centers, but at the time I don't think many cars showed up on the site. She indirectly saved my margin account if i recall correctly that was a green bounce day and I sold shares at $180 to get out of margin....I still have a margin account instead of being wiped out (without injecting capital) thanks to that tip...I can't remember but $138 would have been my margin call point and we are pretty much there, I would have been in margin call now, that was a close one...

I'm actually feeling very bearish and might actually pull the trigger on selling ITM cc (or even DITM cc) if there is a green day/bounce....

My apologies for spreading potential FUD/fear, but thought I need to give a bearish interpretation that news just to be the devil's advocate...I hope i m wrong and this is the bottom, and good luck to the bulls with my assigned shares if I end up selling the ITM cc's....I'll have fun stay poor..
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View attachment 887761

I actually just posted in the main thread on this topic. IMO a Canadian incentive is good news. Sure there could be a demand problem but this is also about clearing inventory. Not sure what they have in terms of tricks for 2023 but sounds exciting.

Not advice but if you need to hedge perhaps look into buying puts? Yeah they will cost you a premium but I feel like that's a better option than buying calls.

 

[chiller]

I just got assigned 14x Sept '24 320P.

 

[Bunky]

Was assigned on 1x Jan 25 400p

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Little question, one answer from US will be enough: Max-pain not working today, or is it only @Netherlands. (can not choose date)

 

[OrthoSurg]

Little question, one answer from US will be enough: Max-pain not working today, or is it only @Netherlands. (can not choose date)

doesn’t work from Canadian browser too.

Little question about people who went through margin calls here.

Do you tend to liquidate more to protect what you have left in case a further drop or you liquidate just enough to survive and see another day and hole for a bounce

 

[vikings123]

The bear raid continues in premarket. I much rather prefer red in premarket so let's see if buyers show up anytime soon and shorts get trapped. Shorties have full control. Buying opportunity..says Elon. The EWT experts are saying we could go down to 104 if we break 135. I don't see it but I obviously did not see 138 before the P&D/earnings reports.

The big question for me is what is the board doing. It was one thing when Gary kept pounding the table asking for buybacks at 200 but I mean at these depressed prices I would think there is great value?

Anyway, I took some hedges off yesterday but if it breaks 134/135 I will be adding them back again.

 

[JustMe]

The bear raid continues in premarket. I much rather prefer red in premarket so let's see if buyers show up anytime soon and shorts get trapped. Shorties have full control. Buying opportunity..says Elon. The EWT experts are saying we could go down to 104 if we break 135. I don't see it but I obviously did not see 138 before the P&D/earnings reports.

The big question for me is what is the board doing. It was one thing when Gary kept pounding the table asking for buybacks at 200 but I mean at these depressed prices I would think there is great value?

Anyway, I took some hedges off yesterday but if it breaks 134/135 I will be adding them back again.

TSLA is just going down with the rest of the market following the jobs report and revised gdp report, both of which imply continued restrictive fed policy.

At the moment TSLA and QQQ are both down the same amount -1.2%. Other tech names are down as much or more.

So it may not feel like it but TSLA is not being singled out right now.

I have no prediction for today but I will say that premarket action has not been a good predictor of the trading day , especially recently

 

[juanmedina]

TSLA is just going down with the rest of the market following the jobs report and revised gdp report, both of which imply continued restrictive fed policy.

At the moment TSLA and QQQ are both down the same amount -1.2%. Other tech names are down as much or more.

So it may not feel like it but TSLA is not being singled out right now.

I have no prediction for today but I will say that premarket action has not been a good predictor of the trading day , especially recently

Yeah look at Rivian -5.4% so far.

 

[Max Plaid]

11x -p180 early assigned, was just looking to roll them when I noticed they were missing...

 

[CHGolferJim]

Little question, one answer from US will be enough: Max-pain not working today, or is it only @Netherlands. (can not choose date)

Also out in the US, but available at TSLA Option Chain Dec 23, 2022 | ChartExchange.