Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Cherry Wine]

While known TSLA-specific catalysts are scant until earnings, there are still macro-level catalysts to keep your eye on. The first comes tomorrow at 10AM ET / 7AM PT with the next JOLTS number. Nonfarm payrolls come out on Friday morning before open, and CPI releases next Thursday before open. Those could all move markets quite a bit.

Schedule of Selected Releases for January 2023

www.bls.gov

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I wonder if it’s time to reevaluate long term growth along with WS expectations too. -10% on first trading day of the year after worst year ever. First time I am asking myself if the company fundamentals changed with the +39% vs 50% expected growth. When is it time to face reality and readjust? When the stock price plundged 70% or when expected growth went down 20%?

I did something long term too.. Fib retracements from a low of 11.8 to a top of 414.5 over several years. Happens to lead to a biggest Fibonacci retracement (of 78.6%) to $97.97. I will wait for that to come and then open some puts 98 and roll them as long as it needs to go.
Earlier I have opened CC 121 for this week at a buck again.
Monthly chart below for the Fib..

 

[ReddyLeaf]

The beating will continue until morale improves.

Closed all CCs, bought another 100 shares, and rolled straddle down out to next week $110s, selling an additional put and call. This is getting really ridiculous. Another day making $5 on CCs, but losing $15 on the underlying stock. Buy set at $95.xx if they fill that 2-yr gap, which look inevitable now. I really should stop buying shares and preserve cash, but the prices seem too good to be true.

 

[kabin]

New lows makes me nibble more this morning and roll covered calls. There's plenty of time before Jan 25's below expectation earnings to drop below 100.

 

[bkp_duke]

The beating will continue until morale improves.

Closed all CCs, bought another 100 shares, and rolled straddle down out to next week $110s, selling an additional put and call. This is getting really ridiculous. Another day making $5 on CCs, but losing $15 on the underlying stock. Buy set at $95.xx if they fill that 2-yr gap, which look inevitable now. I really should stop buying shares and preserve cash, but the prices seem too good to be true.

Reminds me of this which I saw the other day:

I'm still viewing this as a "generational" buying opportunity, but have no idea where the bottom may be. We are already past my revised guestimates.

 

[EVNow]

Hoping to sell 140/145 spread tomorrow- probably will have to reduce the strikes if the market opens much lower. My modest target for this year is to sell to get weekly 30 cents premium.

Might try iron candor instead of call spreads …

Now trying to sell 87/92 put spreads for 30 cents. Will try call spreads tomorrow ...

 

[vikings123]

New lows makes me nibble more this morning and roll covered calls. There's plenty of time before Jan 25's below expectation earnings to drop below 100.

Based on Dan what is saying we will likely see 102/103 today and potentially 99 as early as AH or pre market tomorrow.

 

[EVNow]

I wonder if it’s time to reevaluate long term growth along with WS expectations too. -10% on first trading day of the year after worst year ever. First time I am asking myself if the company fundamentals changed with the +39% vs 50% expected growth. When is it time to face reality and readjust? When the stock price plundged 70% or when expected growth went down 20%?

You mean growth went down by 11% ?

I'm not sure Wall St bought into 50% growth in the first place ... I think it is more a China demand concern. That will get sorted out one way or another with China Q1 numbers - starting with Jan insurance numbers that come out every week.

 

[strago13]

Im about tapped out. If we drop much further, I will likely exit my positions with an overall loss (I invested some at $190 and a lot at $20). If I close everything out, I will face an overall loss. Unbelievable. However, I will probably sell all my shares and just keep the cash sitting in the account in case the Jan 2025 270P's get exercised. I would at least walk away with some profit at this point.

I had to sell Jan 2025 170CC's to make it this far. I have never, ever, in my entire life seen a stock like this. Crazy town.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I should have cashed out around ~300 a share.

 

[OrthoSurg]

You mean growth went down by 11% ?

I'm not sure Wall St bought into 50% growth in the first place ... I think it is more a China demand concern. That will get sorted out one way or another with China Q1 numbers - starting with Jan insurance numbers that come out every week.

Yeah you are right grown went down 11% but headlines will saw it missed expectations by 22% since 11/50x100=22%

So gap fill at 96 then what? Stock rally because it’s oversold or continued descent till 60? Seems like there are 2,3,4 years gap to fill every time we go further down :X

 

[bkp_duke]

When do gaps become irrelevant? I'm sure like 10 years ago there are gaps not filled.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Im about tapped out. If we drop much further, I will likely exit my positions with an overall loss (I invested some at $190 and a lot at $20). If I close everything out, I will face an overall loss. Unbelievable. However, I will probably sell all my shares and just keep the cash sitting in the account in case the Jan 2025 270P's get exercised. I would at least walk away with some profit at this point.

I had to sell Jan 2025 170CC's to make it this far. I have never, ever, in my entire life seen a stock like this. Crazy town.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I should have cashed out around ~300 a share.

I have lost all my retirement savings in 2022 but I had the (chance?!?) to lose it all at a relatively young age after 11 years of work however I am still working, good lesson learned. I will never have all my retirement savings in one stock when approaching 55/60y.o Believe me. I will remember that for the rest of my life.

 

[strago13]

I have lost all my retirement savings in 2022 but I had the (chance?!?) to lose it all at a relatively young age after 11 years of work however I am still working, good lesson learned. I will never have all my retirement savings in one stock when approaching 55/60y.o Believe me. I will remember that for the rest of my life.

The good news is this isnt related to retirement at all. This was always money we could afford to lose. It just takes away the early retirement (FIRE) option for us.

Sorry to hear you lost your retirement savings.

 

[dl003]

When do gaps become irrelevant? I'm sure like 10 years ago there are gaps not filled.

2020 gaps are irrelevant at this point.

 

[bkp_duke]

2020 gaps are irrelevant at this point.

Is there a generally accepted time frame for cutting off looking at gaps? 12 months?

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

A Lesson in Market Psychology

 

[dl003]

Is there a generally accepted time frame for cutting off looking at gaps? 12 months?

generally when the underlying fundamentals / story have changed so much, gaps don't really matter anymore. Nobody can convince me TSLA dropped all the way from 415 only to fill the 80 gap.

 

[samppa]

I have lost all my retirement savings in 2022 but I had the (chance?!?) to lose it all at a relatively young age after 11 years of work however I am still working, good lesson learned. I will never have all my retirement savings in one stock when approaching 55/60y.o Believe me. I will remember that for the rest of my life.

Well, it's not that everything was in one stock.. it's that you sold options on margin against that stock.

For me, I'm done with options. Closed my IBKR account for good.

 

[ice]

BTC 12/30 -100c ($21.19 debit) SP around $121.25. Net profit from the trade $8.56 before commission. Decided maybe it is a bounce so I won't roll this one and let those shares be uncovered. Keeping my 1/6 bandaid's in case P&D flops/macro.

Positions
1/6 -100c ($14.20 credit)
1/6 -80c ($32.52 credit)

STO 1/6 -105c ($4.45 credit) SP around $105.56. I should have let that 12/30 -100c assign, or at least roll it to this week, oh well hind sights.

Positions
1/6 -105c ($4.45 credit)
1/6 -100c ($14.20 credit)
1/6 -80c ($32.52 credit)

 

[JSML]

110 share price breached and I had to deleverage again. Sold off all the new shares and leaps I bought last week. Another painful lesson on being overly optimistic. Might just do nothing on the long side but hold.

STO Jan 6 -c114, -c116, -c118.

Rolled down Jan 25 leaps from +c80 and +c70 to +c30. Paid 62% of the spread. This is the only way I know how to try to make up some of the losses from the shares I bought last week.