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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Rolled my 175/200 spread to 185/230 spread yesterday. Oh, well.
I also let my other set of calls to expire and the shares to be called away last week. This is to register a loss for tax purposes - so, I’m in washout time till March 4th. Will buy The 1.5x Tesla leveraged etf if SP seems to be going higher.
Looks like the opinion is divided on next 3 weeks ? Should I buy … should I wait?
I also let my other set of calls to expire and the shares to be called away last week. This is to register a loss for tax purposes - so, I’m in washout time till March 4th. Will buy The 1.5x Tesla leveraged etf if SP seems to be going higher.
Looks like the opinion is divided on next 3 weeks ? Should I buy … should I wait?
I’m sure you are not alone. I think even the best traders struggle with committing to their trades or overthinking their decisions to act. I would say lost down your criteria(checklist) and make sure all those criteria are met before hitting the sell or buy button. Also
IMO you cannot just assume that we are going to be only 250 by end of year. What if earnings surprise? What if EV adoption happens at a faster pace than you or I are estimating? What if energy turns the corner?
Tesla has clearly established itself as the only remaining mega cap that is growing earnings without the help of stock buybacks. And if energy can start contributing to the bigger picture then I can see a scenario where we are back to ATHs by EOY. Better to sell CCs for short term/near term unless you are happy selling your shares at 250.
Xepa777
Banned
Krugerrand
Meow
To be fair, nobody’s been quite right. Which begs the question why anyone here thinks they’ll be right next week?
gabeincal
Active Member
We're all quite right investing in the right company, eh?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well, nobody knows. Everyone is trying to guess ...
BTW, it would be fun to be able to run polls every week for the week ending price - and see if collectively we can come up with numbers that are more accurate ...
Krugerrand
Meow
Selling puts is the same as buying shares at a predefined price
Buying LEAPS is the same as buying the shares at a predefined price
As long as you are ready to buy the shares it is a form of investing.
Krugerrand
Meow
Do you not think I’ve read what people are doing here!?
Playing in a rigged casino against us?
Yes!
But Technical Analysis is there to help us count cards. Sometimes you might have an edge, until someone start dropping the stock on open market and you realize you have been drunk while trying to count cards.
gabeincal
Active Member
I’ve been a Tesla shareholder since 2017 and have personally purchased 4 brand new vehicles from the company (and helped my MIL purchase one also, getting her out of the Lexus dealership), and even have a personalized plate on my M3 that publicizes that I’m indeed, a fanboy. Your point is understood, but I think selling covered calls or cash secured puts is a form of investing as I really only benefit if the price is stagnating or going up.
I'm pretty certain that if you analysed all the TA proponents on YouTube that at any point in time 50% of them are predicting a rally and 50% a pullback, all based on the same indicators and data point, but with a different interpretation and their own biases
Nevertheless, I find it interesting to see their differing points of view
The two things I do see perpetually influencing are the resistance/support levels, but they're quite often factually based, so makes sense, and the weekly OPEX. In the case of the latter we don't know, of course, whether the calls or the puts have been bought or sold by the Hedgies, so that can change whether we close above or below the "walls", but they often act as magnets for the stock price throughout the week
A great example of resistance is the $214 we hit on Thursday - this is an area we were trading in last October, just before it began the dump down into the 100's - so there'll be a lot of folks bought at that level, got spooked with the drop, then bailed-out the moment they could without a loss. Will be even stronger when we get back to $300 as I imagine there were a lot of folks (me included) who loaded-up before the split thinking we'd go higher, which didn't happen, so expect a lot of selling when we get back to there - will be great selling weekly -c300's when that time comes
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I'm here trying to figure out if I can sell covered calls far enough out of the money to keep them from getting exercised, but yet bring in some extra cash into my Roth, so I can buy more shares. It's looking doable. Otherwise I can't increase my share count in my Roth for almost another year. I would consider that investing.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
what is "quite" right in your dictionary? Seems to me like unless someone has a 100% track record, then they're never good enough for you. Fortunately, you don't have to be 100% right in trading to make money. In fact, if you're right about 60% of the time and have stellar risk management, you can make a comfortable living out of it.
On January 9th, I said
On January 11th, we got rejected at 126 and dropped 8.4% to 115.6 over the next 2 days. On the 11th, I said
On January 18th, we got rejected at 136.65 and dropped 8.8% to 124.31 the next day.
On January 26th, I said
On January 27th, we got rejected at 181 and dropped 9.77% to 163 the next day.
Do you have any idea how much money can be made on a 8-10% drop on TSLA, levels given at least a week in advance? A boat load. Sure, I've been wrong, too, a lot actually, but if you followed my levels and warnings, you'd have made a lot of money on a net-net basis. That's what trading is. I have nothing but respect for you, but to be honest you're not acting much differently from TSLAQ who laughed at us for following our thesis. It seems that, to you, it's your way or the highway. You seem to happily skip over instances when someone is right to go straight to sneer at them when they're wrong.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I'm sure you will sing a different tune when it comes to wash sale rules
IIRC he's in Canada. Not sure the wash rules are the same there.
Just one guy’s input, and I’d love to hear if there are any statistics to the contrary, but I’ve never had OTM CC’s exercised early, and my broker says it’s very rare. No doubt it could happen, but the probability has to be balanced with the income trade-off, right?
gabeincal
Active Member
Based on what I know I disagree with you. I *believe* that the IRS will treat all options to shares significantly different instruments.I'm sure you will sing a different tune when it comes to wash sale rules
The following scenarios should not trigger the wash sale rule and one should be able to claim the losses respectively:
Buy shares, sell them at loss, buy call(s) for 30 days, sell call(s) a month out, rebuy shares
Buy LEAPs, sell them at a loss, buy into shares straight away
Buy PUTs, sell them at a loss, buy into shares right away
Heck, even buy LEAPs a year out, wait, find they're at a loss, roll them a year out (as the date on the instrument changes, and that makes them significantly different instruments)
Correct me if I'm wrong please!
It’s the weekend so I’m going to play my part in derailing this thread with my two cents.
TA should be used as a tool to be reactive for the most part and predictive only on a shorter timeframe like hourly charts. I’m not a big fan of making predictions one month out. Price action will tell you everything you need know. Good traders can go in with a game plan but quickly adapt if things don’t go as per plan.
It is uncanny how a certain trader guy I follow gives me shorter term levels. Sometimes we all wonder why the stock is not reacting favorably to good news or getting shot down without any change in fundamentals. The answer in most cases is TA. And yes understanding option flow helps too.
I’m seeing a lot of folks on Twitter claiming 213 was the near term top. I honestly don’t know and will let price action tell me what I need to know. The institutional option flow is telling me a different story. Until that changes I’m going to lean on the bullish side.
To take this TA thing one step further I also just started an experiment from this week. Set up a NEW margin trading account of 35K to trade TSLA stock so at any point I’m long TSLA or short TSLA. I think with good TA tools you can make good money as long as you stick to your process. I can share learnings if anyone is interested. I don’t recommend that anybody try this but I do this for a living now and have become a big believer in TA. It just works. I’m going use my normal taxable account to sell options. This new account is for trading only.
WEEK 1 results: Account value 38.4K up 9.8%
TSLA during week 1: up 3.64%
TA should be used as a tool to be reactive for the most part and predictive only on a shorter timeframe like hourly charts. I’m not a big fan of making predictions one month out. Price action will tell you everything you need know. Good traders can go in with a game plan but quickly adapt if things don’t go as per plan.
It is uncanny how a certain trader guy I follow gives me shorter term levels. Sometimes we all wonder why the stock is not reacting favorably to good news or getting shot down without any change in fundamentals. The answer in most cases is TA. And yes understanding option flow helps too.
I’m seeing a lot of folks on Twitter claiming 213 was the near term top. I honestly don’t know and will let price action tell me what I need to know. The institutional option flow is telling me a different story. Until that changes I’m going to lean on the bullish side.
To take this TA thing one step further I also just started an experiment from this week. Set up a NEW margin trading account of 35K to trade TSLA stock so at any point I’m long TSLA or short TSLA. I think with good TA tools you can make good money as long as you stick to your process. I can share learnings if anyone is interested. I don’t recommend that anybody try this but I do this for a living now and have become a big believer in TA. It just works. I’m going use my normal taxable account to sell options. This new account is for trading only.
WEEK 1 results: Account value 38.4K up 9.8%
TSLA during week 1: up 3.64%
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