I'm not entirely sure because I don't really watch a lot of these. But I'll bet they aren't 4 hours long, don't start late, have a more solid product roadmap and don't regurgitate previously known information / re use slides.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Yeah agreed, no matter what Tesla showed or said the stock was going to get pulled. The only obvious outcome and we should have all known this was coming. I did not like how it imploded.
I think one of things that played into the selloff is also related to where the QQQ was and how the market was struggling to hold key levels. I’m expecting a bloodbath tomorrow in the market now that they have managed to kill one of the leaders.
1. DITM LEAPS are good for leverage without adding too much risk. Buy as much as you can so Jun 2025 for now.
2. OTM LEAPS are very risky in the current macro environment. Don’t go too far OTM especially in this macro environment.
The strategy that’s worked for me is to buy LEAPS when the stock is undervalued and after a huge run up start converting them to shares or start selling puts against the cash you have from selling those leaps.
A lot of us were caught on the way down because we never expected the stock to drop by 75%. Even in this case of you had the balls to hold on to your LEAPS you probably recovered a majority of your paper losses.
I remember there was somebody in this forum who basically sold all shares and bought bull call spreads expiring in Jan 22). If I’m not wrong I think the poster did this when stock was trading around 200 before it went all the way down to 107. So yeah very risky.
In general though if you are confident that even bad macros cannot stop TSLA from getting to ATHs by 2025 then they are obviously a good bet especially if you do deep ITM let’s say 50$ LEAPS where you will end up paying some time premium.
Other advantage especially in an IRA is you can sell more weekly CCs against your DITM leaps.
Investor Days are an opportunity for senior management to be visible to shareholders, and to communicate the business plan and execution in more detail than any other time of the year. They should be all about the business, nothing about the share price. Or current/next quarter finances. NOT-A-EARNINGS-CALL
Kind of Elon's sweet spot MHO. I tuned out at the start of Q&A - I found the material exhilirating. Totally reinforces my long term investment thesis - probably has me thinking I've been thinking too small.
Short term market reaction - didn't know going in, don't know what we'll see tomorrow despite AH.
Market moving material - possible share buyback and/or dividend, within the larger context of how the company prioritizes capital spending. Could use one for major product announcement, but leaving product announcements for another time is probably a better idea. Prod. Announce is to potential customers - Investor Day has investors as its target demographic.
I dont believe for one second that it was the ID that shat the bed. Look at every single event like this in the past. They never mattered. TSLA only makes big & sustainable moves after P&D and ER, you know, the real numbers. The stock was already on its way down and 190 is not even close to my target. Already yesterday flow was very bearish. It has never failed in predicting a big drop for me.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think the main thing WS looks for is a product roadmap. It could be as simple as some place holder models sprinkled over the next 10 years with some volume attached showing how Tesla will get to 20m.
Exactly.
Even Facebook had a video of the Metaverse. Imagine if instead of showing you the Metaverse, they named themselves meta, then showed you the microchips inside VR Headset then explained how they would get them to become really affordable and I am aware that the Metaverse release was not an investor day presentation but you get the idea.
gabeincal
Active Member
Buy when they are cheap! That helps a lot. I’ve personally lost a good $400k on them.
Thanks.
So the idea of buying a LEAP is to have a placeholder on the shares at the strike price in the future for less risk now, so we can buy/exercise if the share price hits or exceeds the price at or before the expiration date (and lose if it doesn’t). And also earning some cash by closing early if green for gains?
Yikes! Are they cheap now (what strikes/dates)?
What caused your loss if you don’t mind sharing so we can learn from it.
Does it look like a waterfall coming tomorrow or 180-190 -Ps are safe for this Friday as of now?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
190 is obviously not safe ... 180, probably. I've -170/+165 that I'm not sweating about.
ps :
Looking at your profile .... question is would you still have friends if you keep losing money
Losing Money with Friends
190 is obviously not safe ... 180, who knows.
ps :
Looking at your profile .... question is would you still have friends if you keep losing money
Losing Money with Friends
You’re probably right about 190, though papa fox just posted: “Looking toward Thursday's trading, shorts and hedgies will of course try to maximize a sell the news dip, but market makers have nothing to gain from a dip, since max pain is even with or above the current stock price. We may see market open selling that turns into a buy the dip opportunity as the day or week progresses.”
I guess we’ll see. It’s only 5 contracts @190 so I don’t mind taking the shares and I’ll just sell ITM calls against them until they’re gone.
Re “losing money with friends” well, since we are all losing money we stay friends lol. I just saw the line somewhere and found it funny ;-)
To convert shares to increase leverage - I sell maybe 100 shares when anticipating a bounce after a big drop, then use the cash proceeds to buy 2-3 near the money LEAPS 2+ years out. They will gain or lose faster % than the shares - so if the stock goes up, the LEAPS will be up more. I can then sell the LEAPS and use the proceeds to buy back my original shares plus however many more I can get with the extra profit made on the LEAPS.
If it goes down, I do it again and get the LEAPS even cheaper. Keep repeating all the way down because eventually it has to bounce, right? The problem is when we have a year like 2022 and you start converting at 200, then 180, then 150, then 120 - it gets really ugly when the stock starts to test 100.
jeewee3000
Active Member
I've put in some option orders for the open to take advantage of the IV spike in the initial seconds when volume might be larger than usual (given the big drop possibly triggering a lot of stop losses):
STO 3/3 $180p @$2.4
STO 3/3 $210c @1.5
These prices are my guesstimate of what should be achievable with the SP staying around $191 and a slight increase in IV.
If these don't trigger within seconds after open I will adjust. Just trying to collect some safe-ish money in two days. (but if they were to get assigned, I don't mind).
I was even thinking of STO 3/3 $200cc's (juicier premiums) but am wondering how safe this is. Anyone think $200 will be retaken by tomorrow?
STO 3/3 $180p @$2.4
STO 3/3 $210c @1.5
These prices are my guesstimate of what should be achievable with the SP staying around $191 and a slight increase in IV.
If these don't trigger within seconds after open I will adjust. Just trying to collect some safe-ish money in two days. (but if they were to get assigned, I don't mind).
I was even thinking of STO 3/3 $200cc's (juicier premiums) but am wondering how safe this is. Anyone think $200 will be retaken by tomorrow?
SebastienBonny
Member
I'm looking for next week.
225CC for 1.5.
OK, I started typing a rant, but deleted it... tl;dr: people are dumb
So, what to do from here?
- 15x 3/3 -c210: I've a gut-feeling these might expire OTM, so nothing to do
- 45x 4/21 -c300: looking to close these out today in the inevitable push below 190 for 70% profits after a couple of days, nice!
- 15x 3/3 -p190: this is the interesting one... no idea if these will be ITM come close on Friday, but I will assume they are, then I'm presented with a choice on whether to allow assignment, or roll, I really can't judge... I'm quite tempted to take the shares as I think anything below 200 is a bargain and selling -c190's without worrying about core shares is a very tempting prospect for the coming weeks. If I can keep my nose ahead of the game on these then I'm expecting a good P&D to put the stock back on track - not to mention CPI being stone-cold in the next print
If the OPEX keeps the stock above 190 then I'm probably reselling -p190's for next week again
Decisions, decisions...
So, what to do from here?
- 15x 3/3 -c210: I've a gut-feeling these might expire OTM, so nothing to do
- 45x 4/21 -c300: looking to close these out today in the inevitable push below 190 for 70% profits after a couple of days, nice!
- 15x 3/3 -p190: this is the interesting one... no idea if these will be ITM come close on Friday, but I will assume they are, then I'm presented with a choice on whether to allow assignment, or roll, I really can't judge... I'm quite tempted to take the shares as I think anything below 200 is a bargain and selling -c190's without worrying about core shares is a very tempting prospect for the coming weeks. If I can keep my nose ahead of the game on these then I'm expecting a good P&D to put the stock back on track - not to mention CPI being stone-cold in the next print
If the OPEX keeps the stock above 190 then I'm probably reselling -p190's for next week again
Decisions, decisions...
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I hate it when I don't listen to myself. On Monday I said I had a bad feeling about this week and I BTC 20 x p195 3/3. But soon after that FOMO/greed got the best of me and I STO 10 x p185 3/3 and 10 x p190 3/3. I thought those would be pretty safe. Boy, was I wrong (or correct on Monday).
Well, let's see if we get some recovery after the craziness of - maybe - 185. Otherwise tomorrow I will roll the puts to next week, keeping them at the same strike. The premiums should be nice if we are still at this level. Assignment is only something I will contemplate if we go to 160-170 the next few days or weeks. At that level the premiums for selling calls will likely be better than for rolling DITM puts.
Well, let's see if we get some recovery after the craziness of - maybe - 185. Otherwise tomorrow I will roll the puts to next week, keeping them at the same strike. The premiums should be nice if we are still at this level. Assignment is only something I will contemplate if we go to 160-170 the next few days or weeks. At that level the premiums for selling calls will likely be better than for rolling DITM puts.
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