^^^ I see it more about bringing into perspective the correlation or none of dark pool levels, gamma and coincidence of closing SP hitting the various levels. Personally, posts like these tend to open the opportunity for each to do own research or open discussion with possibility to learn along the way.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
OI shift from yesterday. C210 increased by 9398 and P192.5 by 9840. A reduction of about 2k each for C200 and P180. Gamma peak is about 195.
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
0DTE SPY Update
[SPY 403.50 D equilibrium (no change needed)W downside (397) , so unlike yesterday MM will today be more happy to hold SPY below or at putlevel. 403]
[TSLA 195 W above maxpain But trading levels firing up to adjust up, below 200]
Conclusion: Neutral for the rest of the day, rather low volumes, so might easily be used to manipulate SPY to desired level (403 or lower IMHO)
Explanation SPY D vs W: Much bigger OI on W, so W will lead
[SPY 403.50 D equilibrium (no change needed)W downside (397) , so unlike yesterday MM will today be more happy to hold SPY below or at putlevel. 403]
[TSLA 195 W above maxpain But trading levels firing up to adjust up, below 200]
Conclusion: Neutral for the rest of the day, rather low volumes, so might easily be used to manipulate SPY to desired level (403 or lower IMHO)
Explanation SPY D vs W: Much bigger OI on W, so W will lead
Just closed these $190 P's for $4.50 each - not a bad $5 per contract for a couple of days. (staying nimble)
I wanted to be out tomorrow with these going into the P&D but just saw on the calendar that the PCE report hits tomorrow at 8:30 premarket.
Don't know if that is going to be cold enough to keep the bulls happy and the bears at bay - so I took the out when I saw it.
Good luck and remember next week is a short week with Friday markets (US) closed for options.
Thanks for posting this. What conclusions are you drawing from this? (I’m still trying to learn gamma implications on price action.)
scubastevo80
Member
Rolled my 3/31 $175 covered calls to 4/14 $177.5s for $1.
I also sold 4/6 $180 puts for next week for $2.25. I continue to write these since I was called out of most of my position about 3 weeks ago.
I also sold 4/6 $180 puts for next week for $2.25. I continue to write these since I was called out of most of my position about 3 weeks ago.
While the report for chart is covering gamma, think more of Delta hedging, what dealers need to consider to maintain balance. I tend to use the extreme larger bars as the boundaries to decide where I'm going to set BPS and BCS, about $5 outside of those markers. Not advice.
Thanks. So like -P below 190 and -C above 205 for tomorrow expiration is “kind of” safe based on the last screenshot above (not advice)?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I've been holding off selling anything this week .... as everyday both puts and calls kept going down. Now trying to sell 185 puts and 205 calls. Probably won't get executed.
Market posturing into P&D is unclear. This is either still a bull flag forming or a flat correction wave 2 before wave 3 of C, the most destructive leg down, begins. If between now and EOD tomorrow we can break above and hold 200, then P&D will be a beat and up we go. Otherwise everything is up in the air.
Last week I made the call for us to visit 210-215, before lowering it down to 205. That was based on 2 conditions: SPY to visit 404-406 this week and the bullish flow from last week to continue on. Today SPY did tag 404.5. However, the bullish flow could not survive past last Friday and MM was able to crush gamma and all those call buyers. Today calls are picking up a little, as customary to this period before Sunday's report.
Our bullish consolidation phase ends tomorrow and this looks exactly like it should, troubling both bulls and bears.
As far as I know, I was the only one calling for SPY 404-406 at 389 last week.
Last week I made the call for us to visit 210-215, before lowering it down to 205. That was based on 2 conditions: SPY to visit 404-406 this week and the bullish flow from last week to continue on. Today SPY did tag 404.5. However, the bullish flow could not survive past last Friday and MM was able to crush gamma and all those call buyers. Today calls are picking up a little, as customary to this period before Sunday's report.
Our bullish consolidation phase ends tomorrow and this looks exactly like it should, troubling both bulls and bears.
As far as I know, I was the only one calling for SPY 404-406 at 389 last week.
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SPY is in a big rising wedge after bouncing from a nearly 40 point drop. This is a very bad situation for the market. The rug can be pulled any moment now. It wouldn't be exaggerating to say may, just maybe, TSLA's P&D report is the only thing keeping the market from going down again. Y'all can understand why I'm biased toward TSLA going down together with the market from here.
Opened some 180/170 bps earlier in the week for .74(ish); closed today for .04. Nothing more interesting to this close, really, than that there is virtually nothing left to earn. I do like being out of the market for the weekend though and am unlikely to open a replacement position tomorrow.
The interesting bit about this trade was the close mechanism. I had a spread close limit order for more than an hour that would not fill. For .04. Throughout the hour I saw the most recent trades adding up to .03. Why didn't I fill, when I was willing to pay an extra penny for the privilege?
I don't really know why, but I do know that these sorts of low DTE and low price option closes can get wonky. Not so much the prices, as how quickly they fill. As a result I tend to fill these via market orders for the legs. Even if I get the worst of the bid/ask on both sides, then I might turn a .03 close into .05. Usually not though - I'll get .04 instead of .03. I will also get instant results.
I also won't get stuck with a spread where the short leg will close, but the long leg won't. I've had those before, when the actual price on the long leg goes below 1 penny.
My only point, and not-advice, is to also consider just how much money is actually on the table. You may be surprised at how frequently market orders get you in/out of a position, and at a price that is "good enough". And helps you avoid the occasional situation where you can't get that good enough price, the shares start moving aggressively against you, and the hunt for pennies turns into the loss of dimes or dollars.
The interesting bit about this trade was the close mechanism. I had a spread close limit order for more than an hour that would not fill. For .04. Throughout the hour I saw the most recent trades adding up to .03. Why didn't I fill, when I was willing to pay an extra penny for the privilege?
I don't really know why, but I do know that these sorts of low DTE and low price option closes can get wonky. Not so much the prices, as how quickly they fill. As a result I tend to fill these via market orders for the legs. Even if I get the worst of the bid/ask on both sides, then I might turn a .03 close into .05. Usually not though - I'll get .04 instead of .03. I will also get instant results.
I also won't get stuck with a spread where the short leg will close, but the long leg won't. I've had those before, when the actual price on the long leg goes below 1 penny.
My only point, and not-advice, is to also consider just how much money is actually on the table. You may be surprised at how frequently market orders get you in/out of a position, and at a price that is "good enough". And helps you avoid the occasional situation where you can't get that good enough price, the shares start moving aggressively against you, and the hunt for pennies turns into the loss of dimes or dollars.
My go to has been to set a two part IC, opening whatever side is more favorable early, set the other 1-2DTE. This week I set -177.5/+172.5 BPS for .55 and this morning -202.5/+207.5 BCS for .52 with the aim to close the BPS maybe today then watch the BCS , close if it goes bad or close early afternoon tomorrow if it holds. I am avoiding rolls altogether. This approach has worked well the past few weeks. It's a bit more work but less stressful as choosing the IC out the gate Monday.
EDIT: Closed the BPS for .02 , @adiggs style
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I agree. IV is very low on SPY. This is maybe where we get a pull back if not a rug pull. TSLA will go down with SPY macro.
Overall, I expect the market to reposition lower in the next couple of weeks, before earnings season. Then we could go higher or lower depending on guidance.
Strategy and positions - I'm rolling up my CCs every 3 weeks, while scalping short puts every few days:
* Rolled out and up $5 each (for net credits): 175c, 195c 5/19
* Opened 170p 4/21
Can you please explain why you are biased towards TSLA and market going down from here?
My guess is that the market might go to 420 and Tesla could potentially go to 215-230 unless of course if the P & D disappoints.
Just to clarify - the above targets are over a period of 3-5 weeks or so - post Tesla earnings. I am expecting operating Margin more than 15% despite all the price cuts
SebastienBonny
Member
Maybe P&D Sunday will start a run up until earnings and we have a set back after. Who will tell.
About margins: I just want to see numbers, no speculation. For all we know margin is about the same as before because material prices really got down significantly. Like Tesla already said anyway.
About margins: I just want to see numbers, no speculation. For all we know margin is about the same as before because material prices really got down significantly. Like Tesla already said anyway.
I'm thinking to write -p200's for next week. Sure looks to me like a healthy P&D beat is incoming, of course Tesla have a great track-record of P&D surprises, unfortunately also to the down-side...
Looking towards ER, if Tesla could maintain previous margins then the stock will start moving up, quite fast, I'm sure... anything above 20% is very very good though. Personally I think they'll surprise to the upside given all the talk from Elon and Zack about the reductions in supply-chain and cogs - majority of Wall Street seems to have forgotten this, but the more serious analysis are talking about it
And there's the Energy wildcard, if all observers are to be believed, they're pushing these Megapacks out like crazy, for huge profits, with massive IRA subsidies, so who knows...
CT it coming up - I'm assuming May judging by all the hints that have been dropped, perhaps for price, specs and order page. That's likely to be a positive catalyst, unless they base price is $100k... and then when these monsters start getting delivered it's going to be blanket media coverage for weeks, months...
March 31st IRA changes appear to be minimal, potentially impacting just the cheapest Model 3 - and anyone paying attention will tell you that folks want the ModelY more than the 3, plus it's just for the US, so other than some FUD headlines, a nothing-burger, in fact Tesla should probably discontinue the model until they get a local supply of LFP cells
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