Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Right_Said_Fred]

On the other hand, it could be an example of "buy the rumor, sell the news". If I check the premiums April for C220 and 225, they seem to me still attractive.

That’s what I thought before earnings. Except it became a huge buy the news event.

Over the last year or so I’ve experienced several big moves (mostly down but also up) that locked up my funds for months, making it impossible to earn any premium. I’m now taking a more conservative approach, trying to consistently earn 3-5k every week without going to close to the edge (and - another advantage - without having to stress too much). In the end those smaller gains add up.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Rolled 210 4/21 CC to 235 6/17 for pennies (shares I don’t want to lose).
Sold 4/6 225 CC for 1.75 (cost base 220 for those 100 shares).

 

[intelligator]

crap, walked way, -202.5/+207.5 BCS now underwater. any roll out above 230 short side debit. ughhhh..

 

[juanmedina]

Risky.
We are at an important level. 203 is where the daily trend flips from bear to bull and 206 is where the retracement of the 217-164 drop should end, meaning any higher and we're more likely talking about a new rally instead of just a retracement (dead cat bounce). Anyone with enough money to buy and hold TSLA at this level by EOD today will most likely run it up further next week, ie P&D will be a "beat." Market posturing is clear now; it is bullish going into Monday. I'd at least wait for EOD to sell calls.

I closed 2/3 of my 235CC's for next week at close to break even. Sold some 185P's. Sure there will likely be a sell the news event but it will be sold from a higher price than we are at right now, if we close today around this level.

My situation has changed and I would happy rolling ITM calls and letting some go.

We will see what Troy's number are but this make it seem like they are not that great:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641855348339245081

 

[Vova]

Just a general comment. Scrolling through the pages of this thread I mention a lot of predictions of the expiration price of TSLA based on OI.

I am wondering, how do these people filter, for example, the time spreads?

 

[MikeC]

Rolled 2x 195cc to 4/6 2x -p200 and 2x 210cc. Plan to let a -c190 exercise today.

Also closed out 4x 4/6 +200c. Hoping for a fade into close to reposition.

 

[EVNow]

Does someone know something or is this normal FOMO ....

I sold some 205 calls yesterday .... for today. Planning to buy back rather than roll. Can always roll to get back the premium on Tuesday.

 

[Vova]

Since I understood from my fellow countryman, as a newcomer I need to proceed on this forum with humbleness. Second, according I need first to build up a track record.....

Let me give it a try.

I will start with a very boring trade, the butterfly.

I choose April

Buy 1 C200 at 9,30
Sell 2 C220 at 3,65
Buy 1 C240 at 1,34

This means I pay USD 334 (except transaction costs). Max profit USD 1664, max loss the invested premium.

BTW, excuse me for my bad English.

First profit is there. I must say, quicker than expected. Though I am bullish on TSLA I did not expect profit so fast.

I'll just maintain my position. Risk is low with good chance on a nice profit.

I respect people who trade on the edge, but that's not my game.

 

[dl003]

My situation has changed and I would happy rolling ITM calls and letting some go.

We will see what Troy's number are but this make it seem like they are not that great:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1641855348339245081

When I say "miss" or "beat" with regards to P&D and ER results, I try to put the word in "" whenever I can remember to. This is because, for our purposes, a number is considered as a "miss" or "beat" only against how the market positions itself going into the reveal, not against WS ests. I've had lots of success guessing stock price movement after ER result by looking at how the chart looks going into it. When you see TSLA flipping daily trend to bullish before P&D, which is major, especially when built upon an already bullish weekly trend, you've got to ask yourself if the market is simply gambling and you're the only one with any sort of intimate information regarding deliveries. The answers are no and no. In my experience, if the market positions this bullish going into P&D, it means:

a. Somebody already knows the number or most of it, or
b. The market doesn't really care and it will run TSLA up regardless.

Think about it. Someone with a lot of money is willing to buy and hold TSLA above a critical level through the weekend just before the release. They are no fools or gamblers. They will get paid. It will happen either with a gap & go or a gap & trap.

I don't even know what WS ests are and what Troy says the actual numbers are going to be.

 

[intelligator]

crap, walked way, -202.5/+207.5 BCS now underwater. any roll out above 230 short side debit. ughhhh..

Got caught in the run-up, decided to close the position at a loss that set me back three weeks of earned premiums. That's just how it goes. GLTA , who know what flurry will show up next week.

 

[treb]

I don't even know what WS ests are and what Troy says the actual numbers are going to be.

Analyst consensus is 421K. Troy is now higher than consensus.

 

[dl003]

Analyst consensus is 421K. Troy is now higher than consensus.

 

[juanmedina]

That is awesome. How high do you see the stock running? do you still think it will reverse hard into the $140's at some point this year?

 

[dl003]

That is awesome. How high do you see the stock running? do you still think it will reverse hard into the $140's at some point this year?

I see it testing 217 at the minimum, then 230 if P&D is good. Once 230 is broken, 275 - 340. There are 3 levels which, if broken, will confirm the bottom is in at 164: 206, 217, and 230. We broke 206 today. Before 217 is broken, technically 146 is still possible but not likely. I'd say 160 is more like the bottom. If 217 is broken, then 160 becomes unlikely although still possible. If 230 is broken then sky is the limit.

 

[adiggs]

With the move up today I decided to open some 230cc for next week -- about .95. First cc's in a long time. Then I read @dl003's comments above - my 230 strike is more a function of my hat and definitely not-advice.

These are all share backed, so backed into a corner I'll work them like a buy-write. I might be waiting a lot longer before I start using Jan '25 leaps to back cc.

 

[Vova]

I see it testing 217 at the minimum, then 230 if P&D is good. Once 230 is broken, 275 - 340. There are 3 levels which, if broken, will confirm the bottom is in at 164: 206, 217, and 230. We broke 206 today. Before 217 is broken, technically 146 is still possible but not likely. I'd say 160 is more like the bottom. If 217 is broken, then 160 becomes unlikely although still possible. If 230 is broken then sky is the limit.

I bet the opposite on your opinion.

 

[Max Plaid]

Jeeze, do I regret those -c195's I wrote yesterday, and yet the stock had been capped all week up until the moment I wrote them, typical!

Anyway they were sold for $2.15, just bought them back for $12, and rolled to July -c250 for $12.50

Luckily I had already taken around $9 in premiums this week, so the loss wasn't great. Nevertheless, it's not a nice way to end the week, so I closed-out 11x July -p250's @$56 to realised +$22 and looked to resell for a better premium... which never came, of course... so back in with 12x @$52

July is an interesting expiry date, extrinsic there seems to be particularly generous. I now have 30x -c250's straddling the 12x -p250's, I expect the puts to expire OTM, but being 20% above the SP should give ample time to roll those calls out as necessary

As @dl003 said, it's going up for a reason, and I don't personally subscribe to the "back to 140" thesis - why? Maybe if they come with 10% margins at earnings, that might be an issue, but do we really think that's going to happen after what has been said?

Heading to close now, will they get it sub-205? Very poor effort, I have to say, looks like the Hedgies got their buttocks handed to them today

 

[EVNow]

Analyst consensus is 421K. Troy is now higher than consensus.

And ... he was off by about 5% last 2 quarters

https://twitter.com/x/status/1633639163894349825

 

[Jim Holder]

I bet the opposite on your opinion.

Fun to say but can you explain your reason like @dl003 did?

 

[EVNow]

As @dl003 said, it's going up for a reason,

FOMO ? ... though I've to say today's price action looks different than last quarter.