SebastienBonny
Member
I‘m in the same boat.
We’ll see what happens, but next week earnings will drive the stock.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
We’ll see what happens, but next week earnings will drive the stock.
Production is starting a quarter earlier than I expected. This product is bigger than the Model Y in terms of press. We could see a short squeeze start in premarket. We will know soon enough, and there is nothing us regular retail guys can do now anyway. I don't think I want to buy shares or Leaps after the gap up, and I can't sell anymore Calls right now. Maybe buy cheap Puts for a possible pullback, but I'm too cheap to risk that too....
So you thought Tesla was lying when they said the delivery event would be in Q3?
Lying is a strong word. I put my Cybertruck deposit down almost 4 years ago. Let's just say it hasn't gone as planned up to this point, just like the FSD I bought in 2019....
TSLA defied the market on Friday on a day that Rivian was also down almost 3%. Defying gravity in front of earnings? Maybe, but I do wonder if the news had leaked on Friday. I'm also running on 2 hours of sleep after returning from vacation, so maybe I'm just delirious.
Thinking of selling Jan/Mar 350 Puts at the open- hope higher IV will negate the higher SP.
have CC at 350 against all personal shares and takeing on some risk is ok for me, as is the CCs getting assigned. But if SP moves too quickly to like 330 I will likely do a roll….
cheers!!
To add more fuel to the fire, apparently the new 13F filings show a lot of institutional buying during this run up. Hopefully that will provide support.
Some people think those are from Q1. And that Q2 numbers are yet to be released. FYI.
of course a lot of tutes bought. How else could we have gone from 153 to 285 in 2 months?
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Hi @dl003
Is you plan still the same:
-Net long delta to $296, then close positions and observe.
-If we are rejected at $296, wait for a retest of $230-$217.
-If $217 holds, then net long delta for another test of the resistance trend line later this year, but know the subsequent correction will reach $217 minimum.
-If $217 doesn't hold, then be defensive until we've bottomed out.
-If we break $296, then net long delta to $340.
-At $340, lighten up position and prepare for the pullback to end at $270, then at $270 net long delta to $380.
-At $380, close all long positions.
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Re close all long at $380, it's so close to $414 ATH, will that not be tested?
Is you plan still the same:
-Net long delta to $296, then close positions and observe.
-If we are rejected at $296, wait for a retest of $230-$217.
-If $217 holds, then net long delta for another test of the resistance trend line later this year, but know the subsequent correction will reach $217 minimum.
-If $217 doesn't hold, then be defensive until we've bottomed out.
-If we break $296, then net long delta to $340.
-At $340, lighten up position and prepare for the pullback to end at $270, then at $270 net long delta to $380.
-At $380, close all long positions.
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Re close all long at $380, it's so close to $414 ATH, will that not be tested?
plans can change. Im just saying statistically things are likely to reverse once reach that level. Prepared to go long to 380 before closing trades is much better than going long at 380 & praying for further gains.
A 4% bump to 300 wouldn't be too crazy, but I don't think the first line-test Cybertruck is enough to make it happen. There is still a solid 6 weeks minimum before anything resembling mass production is likely to start.
Personally though, looking at the footage from Austin the magnitude of investment and progress in the casting area makes me think that Tesla is making serious progress in a broader context. I think they might be able to justify the current P/E with what will happen over the next year, but without significant earning expansion I struggle to see how the stock will gap-up.
I am thinking of opening a +250/-260 BPS for Friday but may just wait until Thursday. Last week I opened both my positions with 1DTE, snagged about $1.50 with a hybrid IC using CC on the call side. Lot's of inflow to P250, P260, not sure why though. C260, C300, C315 saw a decent increase as well. I'll wait for a pushdown to sell into strength, may set it at a lower strike if the opportunity is there.
EDIT: -C345 looks interesting for Friday, not seeing how we could possibly hit that with CT news alone.
EDIT: -C345 looks interesting for Friday, not seeing how we could possibly hit that with CT news alone.
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Rolling to June would be a smart move. 99% will expire worthless.Sold March 350 PUTS for $81.
I can roll Mar 350 Calls to Jun 380-400 for almost break even ...
will see how 300 line holds ...if at all
Earnings are in two days....
While the Cybertruck news is somewhat a non-event, it does remove a bit of uncertainty going into earnings.
TSLA is moving in a ascending triangle pattern approaching that 296 level. Wouldn't surprise me to see some sideway down action to 280-282 by Wednesday. I think ER will be good. But will it be good enough to break 300? My read is if it's decent, we might pop to 296-300 on Thursday before a bigger consolidation going into August. If it's great then maybe 340 can be in the bag.
Well, I think my 54x -c270's are toast, but that's OK, looks like they'll free-roll to -c280 next week, might do that before earnings and IV crush
Rolled up 30x 7/21 -p270 to -p290 for net +$9 and used the premium to BTC 4x October -c200's, then STO 4x 7/21 -c287.5's with the freed-up contracts
91x -c200's remaining...
I'm also thinking to roll 54x December -c300's to October, would cost around $7 to do so, but then give ATM/weekly roll possibilities to increase the strike - also I can close out 3x of those for each -c200, which would also be interesting to move them to ATM weeklies -> chance to gain weekly Theta and higher strikes, more contracts for then rebuffing the remaining -c200's
All good fun
Rolled up 30x 7/21 -p270 to -p290 for net +$9 and used the premium to BTC 4x October -c200's, then STO 4x 7/21 -c287.5's with the freed-up contracts
91x -c200's remaining...
I'm also thinking to roll 54x December -c300's to October, would cost around $7 to do so, but then give ATM/weekly roll possibilities to increase the strike - also I can close out 3x of those for each -c200, which would also be interesting to move them to ATM weeklies -> chance to gain weekly Theta and higher strikes, more contracts for then rebuffing the remaining -c200's
All good fun
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