Ended up opening a small (5x) 8/18 -p220 position this morning for $0.94 when we broke below $243. I find analysis that tomorrow's CPI print has more downside risk than upside risk compelling.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Ended up opening a small (5x) 8/18 -p220 position this morning for $0.94 when we broke below $243. I find analysis that tomorrow's CPI print has more downside risk than upside risk compelling.
I’m monitoring this idea, perhaps a variant will appeal to you:
- btc 20Oct$235
- sto 17Nov$250
- sto 25Aug$270
and this is why I dont use Flowalgo or Tradytics. They try to peek at market internals through a keyhole, a sophisticated keyhold but still not really real time information. I prefer looking at real time premium fluctuation for signs of bullish or bearish sentiment. When the market is bullish Im going to see call premium squeezing into the close. Yesterday was not even close.
Do you use a tool to evaluate premiums, or simply look at a price chart of specific strikes?
I look at my own short calls. I have A LOT spread out from 5-12 DTEs, 2, 5, 17 and 29 months. Spend 6 hours a day looking at premiums. Puts also.
"topping is a process while bottoming is an event" <- something that has turned out to be right much more often than not. What it means is once a true bottom has been carved out, the subsequent price action will be unmistakbly punishing to all who had shorted the hole. Yesterday and today price action wasnt it. I caught a good level to sell puts but had to get out the very next day as the market didnt show me what I was looking for. I still think we are closer to a bottom than to a top but am going to sit on my hand waiting for that final thrust to the downside for now.
EDIT: just checked and we did make a lower low today. It could be it but lets wait for tomorrow CPI.
EDIT: just checked and we did make a lower low today. It could be it but lets wait for tomorrow CPI.
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I'm confused. You bought puts, or sold them? The -p would mean you sold.
I sold them. I think the CPI print is more likely to come in cold than hot.
liking it ...have, 2 245 PUTS sold for tomorrow, 2 235 PUTS sold for next week.
Yesterday, I added some 270 lotto calls for next Fri
VIX down 8%, all protection PUTS are getting closed ....
the CPI downward trend is your friend ...
Yesterday, I added some 270 lotto calls for next Fri
VIX down 8%, all protection PUTS are getting closed ....
the CPI downward trend is your friend ...
No option quotes from IB. Is that just me or are they having issues again?
I'm seeing quotes from both my broker, WeBull and OptionStrat, however my broker has no Open Interest data, so might be some generalised issue
Roof, 250 broken, Hedgies not going to like that
Beginning to wonder if I should stress over my -c260's
Holding 260 CSP for Friday. Buckle up boys, lets hope we close about 260 or else I am rolling again.
Went a slightly different way — rolling both DITM CC out a month and up slightly for small credits (when at SP $251). Had to increase #contracts by 3 which is much less than previous idea. Would have been slightly better if done yesterday at lower SP:
- 20Oct$235 —> 17Nov$240
- 17Nov$210 —> 15Dec$220
- 25Aug$270 and 15Sep$300 — holding until expiration, or will close at $0.10
I have 2x 20Oct$230 , was going to let them sit given the downtrend. I guess not much different by rolling up $5 to November for a credit (about $1 to $1.3 at $243 or so). Thanks for sharing this move, might be doing similar.
While I think 240 is a sensible level to bottom out, the problem with TSLA is that SPY is still not bottoming out yet. 430 is where it's at so macro pressure is going to weigh on us for a little longer.
Indeed, it's a bit annoying that TSLA dropped 20% after a decent earnings, we have seen times in the past where it does the opposite of the indexes though, so there's hope! I do feel that Highlander specs or Cybertruck order page could reverse thus current funk we're in
For my side, closed out this week's 30x -p260's & 119x -c260's for 25% profits - could have been a lot more if I had bought the puts back when the SP was heading to 252, but that that moment it looked like the markets were going to rally all day. Very weird price-action I have to say
I've nailed my colours to the 250 cross for next week 30x -p250 & 60x -c250, that's from feeling bit bearish and looking at the MP for next Friday, I keep 60x contracts free for the moment in order to double-up on a roll in case of reversal
Strategy is to keep walking the straddle down until the bottom, then move into wider strangles, $10 either side of the SP, didn't get there yet
I rolled a few $220 to $300 Jan for a $9 debit but I am mostly sitting on my hands waiting for $230's.
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