Only think I'd say about rolling to January is that if P&D comes in strong, like >500k, then they'll get steamrollered...
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
So you sold both at the same moment? Then you can just close out the lot, no? But there's a lot of time-value on the put with break-evens all the way down to 200, if it was me and I didn't need the margin/calls freed-up then I would let it ferment
If it closes over 242 today, which looks like a very good possibility, it will set off a new high on the 4h RSI. No end in sight yet. Tomorrow is going to be the same sideway choppiness. Needs it to drop and close around 240 for a shot at a blow off top tomorrow - Friday.
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I am margin free thankfully, but like to capture gains along the way on this to reduce the need to carry the straddle in the first place. Though I like your idea of just letting it ferment and if anything maybe just look at it after a sharper move in either direction instead of day-trading smaller moves.
I think the idea is to BTC the lot for cheaper in a few weeks if we get a rejection/pullback; if no drop then to roll as it gets closer and a trend is clearer.
Completely with you on this. I have dabbled a bit with 1-3 month cc's and I actually like their dynamic. Its just that the setup isn't right for them very often, but when it comes along you can get a relatively large amount of premium at a great strike. I sold some Jan '24 350s a few months back, and was able to close them early for about 50%. 50% of $1 isn't all that much, but 50% of $10 was great, and at the 350 strike I had a lot of room for things to run.
I can't really tell you specifically why I decided to do the 2 month roll instead of the 2 week roll this time. Most of the time my experience is that you're exactly right - the shares touch the option strike, and then turn around and the option finishes OTM. In fact this is a risk added to a position on a roll - what would be a winning positions turns into a losing position with the extra time added.
I can tell you that choosing the 2 month roll and much better strike is very much tied up into my mentality regarding rolls. I only roll positions in an effort to save them. When I'm rolling, income is not a consideration. I use as many as 4 positions for generating income; I really only need 1. That leaves me room for individual positions to be rolling along earning no income awaiting the reversion that saves them.
I only roll for credits because rolled positions can't be closed for a 2/3rds gain as my regular income positions can be. As a for-instance, these Jan 270s are 9.60 options. So a 2/3rds close would be for 3.20. Thing is that I only have a 2.00 credit in there. A 2/3rds close is really when the option price is down around .70 (2/3rds of the 2.00). If I do any rolls for a debit, then I pretty quickly have a position with no credit at all, and I'm just playing for it to not lose as much. Sometimes that's the hand you've got, but I try to delay that as much as possible.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Anyone using the otm/itm probabilty column on your option tables? Example mine show 75% chance otm for c260 next week. How that working for you so far if used?
TA and our inhouse chartmaster definitely help but trying to see if other tool are also used when selling to increase probability of profitting.
TA and our inhouse chartmaster definitely help but trying to see if other tool are also used when selling to increase probability of profitting.
I guess that's the same as "Chance of Profit" - shows 87% in OptionStrat - unless you meant -c250, that's 75%:
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Yes big dog buddy.
Do you use that as parts of the stragedy? Any comment on how effective it is?
I have in the past, but I never really tracked whether it turned out to be right, or not
Makes you feel better though the it's in your favour, that's worth something!
What a miserable day. Sitting at my desk stewing in stomach acid. I haven't lost any money..., yet. My big worry now is the 200X 247.5CC I have for next week that were rolls of my 242.5s for this Friday. It would be funny if we close under 242.5 this week and the 247.5s get run over next week.... I don't want to roll them to Jan 2024 290s because I'm not sure they would be safe there. I guess I'll just have to see what the next 10 days brings aside from 10 sleepless nights. 
Starting in mid-May, we ran from 165ish to 270ish (in about a month) with barely a dip. Now we have Cybertruck....
Edit: I need to start making up stuff for a Business Insider FUD article for next week.... Anyone have any good Tesla crash videos or something?
Edit 2: There is hope for a drop after Cybertruck. X video shows that the truck might only have around 300 miles of range, which would be a disaster for towing. Fingers crossed....
Edit: I need to start making up stuff for a Business Insider FUD article for next week.... Anyone have any good Tesla crash videos or something?
Edit 2: There is hope for a drop after Cybertruck. X video shows that the truck might only have around 300 miles of range, which would be a disaster for towing. Fingers crossed....
If its that bad then I won't be touching TSLA for quite some time, at least not being long. Hard to imagine they would whiff it that badly.
I think Elon would tweet a change of plans already if it's 300 miles as the top end. He already said there are multiple versions of the CT on podcast. If there are any major changes to the miles, he would forewarn people like what happened to the plaid+. With that said, I still think a dump in sp is likely post CT event like all Tesla events. However BTC is going to the moon right now which tells me the market is perfectly fine with going risk on.
What a miserable day. Sitting at my desk stewing in stomach acid. I haven't lost any money..., yet. My big worry now is the 200X 247.5CC I have for next week that were rolls of my 242.5s for this Friday. It would be funny if we close under 242.5 this week and the 247.5s get run over next week.... I don't want to roll them to Jan 2024 290s because I'm not sure they would be safe there. I guess I'll just have to see what the next 10 days brings aside from 10 sleepless nights.
I’m sorry to hear that. You’ve had several of those episodes in the past. Aren’t you flying too close to the sun and putting too much on the line if it makes you feel that bad? Are you trying to claw back earlier losses but perhaps risking too much in that effort?
Two days ago, with the SP around 215, I sold CCs for only 0.2 premium at the 242.5 strike. That is usually not close to the sun at all....
I've learned to sit out CCs if I don't find the premiums compelling, especially at potential reversal points. I also try to aim for at least a couple strikes above likely resistance points since we've routinely see the stock go briefly above them before correcting. I'd rather not be in the market for a few days or even a week at the risk of not collecting premium - helps keep me out of trouble.
EDIT: I also like to ladder into CCs now. I leave some premium on the table, but it's all risk management stuff.
That thinking is how I wound up with 11/17 -c250s, first at ~0.40 and then later at ~0.70. I've kept my powder dry since, as I don't want to open any new positions unless I'm forced to roll. I've been keeping a much closer eye than usual on those positions today, but I have options and enough dry powder to manage them such that they haven't caused me grief.
Cary says $259/269 in play as long as TSLA is above $239.44.
Over 239.44>$253.61>$262.70>268.81|Short
A close below 239.44>226.60>217.77>if holds then back up.
Over 239.44>$253.61>$262.70>268.81|Short
A close below 239.44>226.60>217.77>if holds then back up.
Yes, my analysis also concludes that it could go UP, or it could go DOWN from here. Great minds....
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