Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[mickificki]

Sh.t price and sh.t range… EST 340 range, starting at 80K, 61K in TWO years, RWD only. 250 mile EST

NO 500 mile range, NO 39.95K (ok, that should have been inflation adjusted of course)

Elon's arrogance on display with the CT, just as with the X.

Horrible ramp, extremely slow production, WAAAAAY overpriced than what they originally stated YEARS ago($80k for dual motor, are you f'ing kidding me???), just putrid mileage.

I'm glad I kept my puts.

 

[Max Plaid]

They also didn't mention V2G on CT: https://www.tesla.com/powershare

For the financials, the more expensive models are coming first, the cheaper in 2025

Performance and utility looks good enough, but indeed the 500mile range isn't there

Tech popped hard at 15:50 - I didn't see any news yet for that...

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Cybertruck technical discussion over in the other thread please.

 

[EVNow]

Too many prices. No win situation there. If EM leads with "starting at" he would have been mercilessly attacked regardless. He knows better by now.

Have a simple slide with range, price & expected delivery. Like they have on the website.

 

[EVNow]

Given new information - what are your guesses for tomorrow close price (and high / low) - also next week ?

I still think a 235 closing is on the cards - could be choppy (230 to 245 ?) for tomorrow.

Next week - depending on macro either flat (if index goes up) or down to 200 if the market goes down.

 

[EVMeister]

Have a simple slide with range, price & expected delivery. Like they have on the website.

Would price and range be considered "market moving" information that couldn't be revealed during market hours? If the event started on time that definitely would've been "revealed" during market hours. Maybe that's why they didn't mention it.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Given new information - what are your guesses for tomorrow close price (and high / low) - also next week ?

I still think a 235 closing is on the cards - could be choppy (230 to 245 ?) for tomorrow.

Next week - depending on macro either flat (if index goes up) or down to 200 if the market goes down.

Agreed. max pain was 237.50 at the close, so we might drop below that to 235, but not much lower than 230. That's my gamble.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Since you all are closing Puts, I closed by -220/+225 spread for almost a $4k profit. Peer pressure....

I still am loaded and will possibly sell on opening drop.

 

[tivoboy]

Given new information - what are your guesses for tomorrow close price (and high / low) - also next week ?

I still think a 235 closing is on the cards - could be choppy (230 to 245 ?) for tomorrow.

Next week - depending on macro either flat (if index goes up) or down to 200 if the market goes down.

Max pain for 12/1 is/was 237.5, probably won’t be hard to get it keep it there.

max pain 12/15, is $220, probably won’t be hard to get it there.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

If it breaks 238 or close the day without seeing 243.5 I'll reenter also.

After Hours it did it again (just now) so I expect a huge profit tomorrow.

 

[dl003]

Sh.t price and sh.t range… EST 340 range, starting at 80K, 61K in TWO years, RWD only. 250 mile EST

NO 500 mile range, NO 39.95K (ok, that should have been inflation adjusted of course)

the output is low right now so they charge what they can get away with. lets hope the price stays HIGH. If they lower it it means not selling well. dont want that.

 

[thenewguy1979]

It already approaching $236 AH. Seem the overall sentiment is not that great.

Combining with Macro and sell the news we should see red. Else AH would have pop green.

Closed my boatload but still retain 5 contract. Got rid of the short legs so can ride it all the way down to next week.

 

[dl003]

After Hours it did it again (just now) so I expect a huge profit tomorrow.

I reentered at 240. Should be good.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

On Topic:
Who still has +P for tomorrow?

Me:
P190 35x expecting to expire (bought el cheapo of course)
P225 10x could be just ITM (IMHO)
P245 10x (forgot to mention I took profit on P250 on one of the many bottoms around $240 SP and switched to P245 when SP went a few dimes higher, this move just to decrease the risk involved but still pretty sure I will not loose, because we closed almost on the low again)

 

[Jim Holder]

$232.50 AH and not stopping.

@dl003 Good call on putting back on the puts!

Thankfully I’m net short in CC’s but still have my longs.

Wonder where the floor is…maybe $231.92

 

[Max Plaid]

On Topic:
Who still has +P for tomorrow?

Me:
P190 35x expecting to expire (bought el cheapo of course)
P225 10x could be just ITM (IMHO)
P245 10x (forgot to mention I took profit on P250 on one of the many bottoms around $240 SP and switched to P245 when SP went a few dimes higher, this move just to decrease the risk involved but still pretty sure I will not loose, because we closed almost on the low again)

For tomorrow I have:
- 50x -p230 @$3.1
- 32x -c230 @$10.35
- 10x -p245 @$4.6
- 100x -c250 @$2.1

Plus 100x 12/8 -c260 @$4.20

Although I desperately want the SP to go up to 270, I clearly make more money short term if the SP closes around 230, my small misstep was to sell those -p245's yesterday to close out a few of the -c230's

And still holding 100x March 2024 +p200's, that's what I'm writing my short puts against

Might sell some -c250's for next week on top of the -c260's, which I reckon are as good as expired already...

 

[thenewguy1979]

Put should print tomorrow - already at 234 AH.

Keep those 12/8 227P which were more closer to ITM so they work out better at the end.

I got only 5 but there's meaty to me vs the prior 225/220. No short legs to be bounded by.

 

[Knightshade]

That's the thing, for folks with stuff like 12/8 225 puts- sell in the morning if we open around low 230s (with a week of time value left) for the profit or wait and see if we get more dump vs theta decay?

Expiring tomorrow I've got CCs at -237.50 and -242.50, the higher ones surely look safe to let expire, but will probably put BTCs in at 90% first thing for both to be safe.

 

[Jim Holder]

That's the thing, for folks with stuff like 12/8 225 puts- sell in the morning if we open around low 230s (with a week of time value left) for the profit or wait and see if we get more dump vs theta decay?

Here's a visualization of the position:

TSLA Dec 8th 220/225 Bear Put Spread (25) | OptionStrat

View my options strategy on OptionStrat

optionstrat.com

@tivoboy what are your thoughts on when to take profit on the 12/15's, what are you expecting?

 

[2Pearls]

Same here. I am going to be pissed tomorrow with you all if we go down.

I am staying strong with all my puts bought at 250, 245 and 235….I think it will be a sell the news situation tomorrow. Should have also mention that all my puts expire 12/22