Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

Inflation is receding - now how long until we get to start worrying about deflation and recession?

I have short calls from 220-245 this week (doubled some contracts this morning to bring 237.50s up to 245s) that I'm still comfortable with, but I am feeling more bullish with the news that Model 2 is on track in Austin.

About 2.5 months

 

[Cherry Wine]

Inflation is receding - now how long until we get to start worrying about deflation and recession?

I have short calls from 220-245 this week (doubled some contracts this morning to bring 237.50s up to 245s) that I'm still comfortable with, but I am feeling more bullish with the news that Model 2 is on track in Austin.

The two things that scare me about writing -cc LEAPS at these levels are FSD and the next-gen platform. Actually, three things: an actual soft landing combined with rate cuts.

 

[dl003]

@dl003 is your expectation of the recent 5 wave complete? I think I can see 4 waves but not the 5th?

Also, @dl003 great call on the bullish divergence and @SpeedyEddy great call on the MA divergence. Appreciate your inputs.

Which sequence are we talking about?

 

[mickificki]

replying to your post @dl003...This is from about a week ago...

 

[dl003]

View attachment 996628

replying to your post @dl003...This is from about a week ago...

Yes I think the 2nd impulse is complete. I'm now watching to see if we'll have a 5 wave up. Should not go over 270 before correcting. Scrap this if traded below 240.

 

[dl003]

If we have a 5 wave up, then we'll spike again, taking out 246.5. The max for this move will be 257.

Then, we'll pull back again, then spike again, taking out whatever the top will be in the step above. The max for this final move will be 270.

Then we should correct deeper, to 257 minimum. Again, everything is invalidated if traded below 240.

 

[Jim Holder]

If we have a 5 wave up, then we'll spike again, taking out 246.5. The max for this move will be 257.

Then, we'll pull back again, then spike again, taking out whatever the top will be in the step above. The max for this final move will be 270.

Then we should correct deeper, to 257 minimum. Again, everything is invalidated if traded below 240.

If we don’t have a 5th wave, what’s the next level below we should look out for before another try at taking out $246.50?

 

[ninpb]

could not agree more, both 25% away and as long as there is no white smoke, stay careful especially with short options (-P and -C, for those who do not know what we mean by short options: the ones that have a (huge) impact on margin)

I've been meaning to see how to downgrade my account options level back to just cc and csp and get rid of margin availability. Upgraded last year for spreads which did not go so well. I wasn't hurt on margin but this would be a double benefit to not be tempted by spreads and margin.

 

[Jim Holder]

It's the dino pattern:

 

[Jim Holder]

12/8 options update

$245 grew some more:

12/15

$250 dominates and also grew

 

[jim0266]

If we have a 5 wave up, then we'll spike again, taking out 246.5. The max for this move will be 257.

Then, we'll pull back again, then spike again, taking out whatever the top will be in the step above. The max for this final move will be 270.

Then we should correct deeper, to 257 minimum. Again, everything is invalidated if traded below 240.

What candle time frame do you need to see trading below 240 to invalidate this move?

 

[khill]

What candle time frame do you need to see trading below 240 to invalidate this move?

@dl003 did you mean if we close below 240?

 

[intelligator]

What candle time frame do you need to see trading below 240 to invalidate this move?

240 seems to be the break through wave 3, we are falling through 239 now. I may btc 12/15 -c265 for 40% soon, sold at 1.60 this am.

 

[dl003]

It's trading below 240 now.

 

[Knightshade]

It's trading below 240 now.

So per your last that means everything invalidated... does that indicate a different specific path- or back to limbo pending more data?

 

[dl003]

So per your last that means everything invalidated... does that indicate a different specific path- or back to limbo pending more data?

It's back in limbo.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Tesla trying hard to get back to 240.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

Looking at the max pain for 12/8 and 12/22 (ignoring 12/15 since that's a triple witching week) being 235-237, I guess we'll just hover around this for a while. Thinking about whether to roll my 01/19 -300c forwards to 12/15 -255c just to harvest covered-call premiums and free them for more after the holidays?

 

[BornToFly]

I'm not going to lie. I got nervous this morning about my 260CC when we broke 246. I feel better now. I would like to see a percent or two a day to finish the week around 250.

 

[Jim Holder]

Looks like the market is setting up to have another go at getting over $246 tomorrow.