I’m still looking for <200 in the next 45 days.
But i think we could stay between 217-235 (I know that is a big range) before 2/2/24
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
But i think we could stay between 217-235 (I know that is a big range) before 2/2/24
A lot of the CC's I sold back in July are down near 70%....the urge to close them out is strong 
Today's price action is playing out to the scenario of sell off going into earnings with a rally after but man I don't like the setup of macro's right now. Earnings would have to be very strong to counter selling pressure from a macro 5-10% pullback.
If anyone's following the Truflation twitter account, they're now showing a real-time inflation number of sub 2%, 1.86% in fact.
Remember that Truflation is based on real-time data so there could be anywhere from 1-6 months before we see the corresponding drop in CPI numbers. We still haven't really seen the drop from Oct to Dec show up in official CPI numbers yet. I've seen some people try to discredit Truflation's methodology and try to say they're just trying to make things seem more rosy than they actually are. But those people also fail to mention that Truflation showed the rapid increase of inflation well before CPI inflation numbers started to go higher 2 years ago.
So the question to me really becomes when will Wall St do the rug pull on macro's before Truflation's numbers flow into official CPI numbers. Because when they do, there's going to be one hell of a Fed pivot.
Today's price action is playing out to the scenario of sell off going into earnings with a rally after but man I don't like the setup of macro's right now. Earnings would have to be very strong to counter selling pressure from a macro 5-10% pullback.
If anyone's following the Truflation twitter account, they're now showing a real-time inflation number of sub 2%, 1.86% in fact.
Remember that Truflation is based on real-time data so there could be anywhere from 1-6 months before we see the corresponding drop in CPI numbers. We still haven't really seen the drop from Oct to Dec show up in official CPI numbers yet. I've seen some people try to discredit Truflation's methodology and try to say they're just trying to make things seem more rosy than they actually are. But those people also fail to mention that Truflation showed the rapid increase of inflation well before CPI inflation numbers started to go higher 2 years ago.
So the question to me really becomes when will Wall St do the rug pull on macro's before Truflation's numbers flow into official CPI numbers. Because when they do, there's going to be one hell of a Fed pivot.
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What @Max Plaid was referring to is selling calls at a happy-to-exit-price (or puts at a happy-to-buy price). If one were really willing to sell their shares at $X, there is no bet to lose. For example, if one is fine selling at $330 (+57%) in the next year, they can pocket 5% gains today. If one wants $420 (+100%) in the next two years, they can pocket 8% today.
Want puts? No taxes? Less worried about missing another moon shot? Sell your TSLA and agree to buy it back at $150 anytime in the next year for 5% return today. $150 in the next 2 years? 9.5% return today.
Sell a 210 put 2 years out, 22% return today 10% annualized.
One could say holding is gambling that the stock will be higher by the time you need the money.
If you figure out the sweet spot, please let me knowI settled on 1/26 c230 and 2/2 c250. Relatively small positions given the highly speculative nature of the position, but I like the risk/reward ratio here. Will get out on any decent rise into earnings; unsure if I would just ride out continued weakness into earnings - will take that as it comes.
Sold the 2/2 c250s, and turned the 1/26 c230s into a freeroll bull call spread (with some profit banked) by opening some 1/26 -c235s. Also scalped some 1/26 -c250s for a quick 50% on the pop and drop. Unless another interesting opportunity arises, that'll probably do it between now and earnings.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
This is where that doesn't always work out so well for inexperienced Options traders:
- lots of TSLA investors don't have margin accounts and can't buy options (including many foreign citizens)
- not everyone 'needs the money' or depends on a certain price at a certain time
- selling call Options for a price sounds good now, but that psychology implies:
- people are honest with themselves
- they won't react irrationally if their thesis doesn't hold
- have the skills and patience to learn Options
Cheers!
And guidance/Elon's vibe. With the stock market pulling so hard I don't think the FED will be in any rush to actually cut.
Fair enough
I don't recommend options nor stock trading for anyone. Every decision is suboptimal in hindsight...
Holding (if one can stomach it) requires the least active actions. Buying at fixed points in time, the least calculating.
Know your enemy, know yourself
-Sun Tzu
We have met the enemy and he is us
-Pogo
EVNow
Well-Known Member
A lot of us forget that Feds are more interested in "main street" rather than "wall st". They will cut if they see softening economy / increased unemployment. They will also cut if inflation falls (unlikely).
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
perhaps today is just people taking profit from Macro ATH?
It's not bad, not great, just mostly flat.
It's not bad, not great, just mostly flat.
If the CPI prints start coming in sub 3% to the mid 2's by March, doesn't matter what the stock market is doing, they'll cut. The spread between the Fed fund rate and the CPI number will be too great and the odds of deflation coming start increasing dramatically.
Fed was way too slow to acknowledge inflation...I doubt they'll be equally slow to acknowledge deflation coming.
And yeah, Q3's earnings were the most somber earnings call I can really ever recall hearing from Elon. Having a repeat of that would likely overshadow a earnings beat and drop the stock
EVNow
Well-Known Member
That is a very simplistic view. There are a lot of areas where inflation is still slowly working its way through the system.
OTOH, compared to pre-pandemic prices, I pay nearly double the price (like a Latte) for a lot of things that don't seem to have made it to CPI at all
I agree. Just like the Fed was content to raise with indices cratering last year, it will cut with them hitting new ATHs this year. Their actions are simply a reaction function taking into account real interest rates (known within the Fed as the "Taylor Rule"). And with the guts of labor reports weakening despite good headline numbers, I am confident that the Fed will cut as long as inflation stays tame, because real interest rates have grown significantly more restrictive as inflation has fallen. And we are waiting on that OER disinflation/deflation to work its way through into the data. Any month now...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Well, most economists don't think Feds follow Taylor's rule. They have their own complex forecasting methods.
https://www.npr.org/2022/11/02/1133720724/john-taylors-formula-for-the-fed
In any case, in an election year, Fed will do utmost to make sure the economy doesn't fall into a recession. That will be their main objective - "soft / no landing". BTW, they would have pulled off something most economists thought was not possible ... !
Closed out for .39
I'm happy with the 60% win
Today's open looks similar to Friday's (to the left), will we get the same grind up into close? Stay tuned!
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