Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[StarFoxisDown!]

Here we go. (Yesterday I even heard Teslaboomermama (Alexandra Metz) who is a big Tesla bull, in despair, that the only thing to expect is a drop ("in which we all can accumulate stock") because this is how the majority of institutions look at Tesla: 1 year out. To jump back in just before really taking off.
At least I am a little bit diversified this time and still hope I will not get assigned some _P that are really close and underwater. Maybe we get a run to the 175 and take off from there, but I keep an eye on the fat dotted red line under all bottom that is at 130-ish (rising) right now. Don't think that is a very likely bottom though, because of all the drops we already had (in fact al the way down since almost SP300!) Maybe the last bigger gap-up will ultimately be reached, which is 145. For now, I hope it will stop in the 170's.

To me at least, the $146 gap is the most likely outcome. It's crazy to think that 9-10 months ago, when that gap up happened, it was like......yeah we're gonna be revisiting this at some point lol

I want to sell more CC's but dear lord you'd think there would be some sort of dead cat bounce after this 10% drop before start the move down to $146

 

[john tanglewoo]

Where on earth is @dl003 ?!

 

[EVNow]

OK, it's not quite that simple, but I'm still of the opinion that $1 calls will very rarely go ITM and, if they did, most of the time you'd have an easy roll up and out

$1 calls are currently 15 delta - so expect them to go ITM 7 or 8 times in the next year. How many times you will have to roll each time ? I sold 30 cent calls and had to roll for 6 months.

 

[Yoona]

undecided at the 1.414% fib and Volume Profile

 

[Jim Holder]

Where on earth is @dl003 ?!

Wondering same. Happened a few times where he disappears when TSLA goes off script.
He said we'd know when he's turned full short...maybe that's the hint? Lol

 

[mongo]

$1 calls are currently 15 delta - so expect them to go ITM 7 or 8 times in the next year. How many times you will have to roll each time ? I sold 30 cent calls and had to roll for 6 months.

The beauty of the purchased calls is that as long as you roll for credit, you'll always end up ahead (assuming you make the purchase premium back at some point). If the rolls up and out cross the purchased strike, you have a profitable bull call spread.

 

[MikeC]

Sold and bought back -c187.50 for 30% gain, still holding -c190 for this week and next. I don’t see why we we’d have a sustainable bounce in the next few trading days.

Elon’s company talk might be the next chance to give us a little boost, maybe.

 

[EVNow]

The beauty of the purchased calls is that as long as you roll for credit, you'll always end up ahead (assuming you make the purchase premium back at some point). If the rolls up and out cross the purchased strike, you have a profitable bull call spread.

There is no free lunch ... its a question of probabilities. Figuring out the probability of success for the strategy laid out by @Max Plaid is not easy.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sold and bought back -c187.50 for 30% gain, still holding -c190 for this week and next. I don’t see why we we’d have a sustainable bounce in the next few trading days.

Elon’s company talk might be the next chance to give us a little boost, maybe.

Is there an announced date for that company talk?

 

[EVNow]

55% chance tomorrow is green based on TSLA history

View attachment 1012100

if green, could be violent reversal up to 14%

View attachment 1012107

Do you have stats on Friday of the ER week ? My (faulty) memory is that, usually Friday is a repeat of Thursday.

i.e. Red on Thursday usually means red on Friday, though not by same amount.

 

[Yoona]

I think Yoona's back-testing is for weekly ATM's not longer DITM, basically you're just trying to gain some extrinsic, you'll need to see what works now the IV has reset

backtesting was for put shorts that went ITM during the week

assuming no early assignment (there's no way i can program that), if you roll with 5- or 10- strike improvement every week (ie -p200 then -p195 then -p190 etc), the ITM will eventually go OTM 100% of the time since 2021

whether the roll is credit or debit is up to your personal circumstance, i am just tracking HLOC prices

put rolls will OTM faster than call rolls based on the backtesting, especially on 10-strike improvements

i believe the trick is to roll BEFORE you go ITM for 'guaranteed' credit (this works with wide ICs)

 

[elasalle]

There is no free lunch ... its a question of probabilities. Figuring out the probability of success for the strategy laid out by @Max Plaid is not easy.

Basically it's the same as timing the market. (just with options ...)
that said, with discipline hedging/buying insurance is always an option, but no guarantees the insurance will not expire worthless.

else now might be good time to buy NVDA PUTS

 

[Knightshade]

Is there an announced date for that company talk?

AFAIK only info Elon gave was " after the 10K. " which typically is filed by end of Jan.

 

[elasalle]

AFAIK only info Elon gave was " after the 10K. " which typically is filed by end of Jan.

I thought we don't want Elon talking

Q1 numbers will set the trend for 2024 delivery numbers ....

 

[vikings123]

Well I already have some, so don't really need right now, but Jan 2025 +c300's look interesting at $9 -> that a lot of upside protection for weekly selling

So buy 100x +c300 -$90k, sell +$1 weekly against them for 50x expiries +$500k = $410k profits!

OK, it's not quite that simple, but I'm still of the opinion that $1 calls will very rarely go ITM and, if they did, most of the time you'd have an easy roll up and out

Hell, I'm even thinking to sell $9 of premium now and buy the +c300's for free, seems a good bet to me

If you own C300 you can only sell higher strike against them correct? If that is the case how do you expect to get 1$ every week.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Well I already have some, so don't really need right now, but Jan 2025 +c300's look interesting at $9 -> that a lot of upside protection for weekly selling

So buy 100x +c300 -$90k, sell +$1 weekly against them for 50x expiries +$500k = $410k profits!

OK, it's not quite that simple, but I'm still of the opinion that $1 calls will very rarely go ITM and, if they did, most of the time you'd have an easy roll up and out

Hell, I'm even thinking to sell $9 of premium now and buy the +c300's for free, seems a good bet to me

Try to copy big dog move but it does required a lot of margin or equities to cover the leg between the option. Selling -220C back by +300 required 80 x 100 in kibbles.

Maybe one day

 

[MikeC]

I thought we don't want Elon talking

Q1 numbers will set the trend for 2024 delivery numbers ....

Haha, well I don't think I do want him talking - but I was thinking there could be a run up in anticipation of the talk, after which we'll probably be disappointed and get a sell the news.

 

[Yoona]

else now might be good time to buy NVDA PUTS

also sell

 

[UncaNed]

The business is perfectly healthy and profitable. But will be growing at a significantly lower rate for probably 2 years than it was the last few.


This is likely getting deeper into the weeds than really makes sense for this shorter-view thread though?

Unless we want to discuss how good an idea mid-2026 LEAPs are or something... was SEMI tempted by say $250 strike for ~40 bucks, but since it's likely we see even lower SP later this year waiting still seems to make more sense.

NOT too deep in the woods for this thread, useful info IMHO.

Wouldn't that same mid 2026, $250 strike LEAP cost only around $10 at TSLA share price ~$130 or so - or only $1.00 around SP $110!!? Surely a possibility worth considering as we balance opportunity costs and risks, especially for those of us with other assets we could sell and invest if we reach these lows or lower. This is the kind of trade simple-minded folks like myself can understand, to keep us busy while we wait for our January 2026 LEAPS to recover to some degree over the next 2 years.

I'm amazed at how quickly the sentiment here oscillates between Bullish and Bearish-the-sky-is-falling.

Also, I wonder W.W. @dl003 do??

Edited to remove inadvently pasted post.

 

[mongo]

There is no free lunch ... its a question of probabilities. Figuring out the probability of success for the strategy laid out by @Max Plaid is not easy.

Ok, yeah I see it now.
The worst result is ending up with an ITM sold call at the bought call's expiry below the bought call's strike because that is a failed credit spread. Really need to go for high strikes versus premium to avoid that.