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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
This is one of those days that even though it’s a monthly controlled week I’m finding it difficult to find a trade I feel good about. Can we please spike lower or higher already? Thanks! My gut on this week was we get our bounce and then fade and fall. Maybe just fade and fall? 
Read back through @Yoona posts, particularly recently graphed data —> from memory one illustrated only 8% of 7DTE 2020-2023 share gains were +11%-15%.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Agreed, why cannot we just Moon to 214 and get this over….This is one of those days that even though it’s a monthly controlled week I’m finding it difficult to find a trade I feel good about. Can we please spike lower or higher already? Thanks! My gut on this week was we get our bounce and then fade and fall. Maybe just fade and fall?
TSLA takes at least 4 full weeks to fill the gap left open by an ER. This week is only the 3rd week. After next week we may have a shot.
For me at least these are good questions to have my own answers to before I will do any trades in a stock.
I've also worked in the chip manufacturing and design industry (Intel), though in IT, so I know some but not a lot about the industry. I believe I could gain the necessary knowledge, but that afore mentioned knowledge I already have might get in the way of assembling a clear view of Nvidia as a company. I just don't know, except that I do know 2 things for myself:
1) Since my decisions and consequences are my own, I need to form my own opinion about a company. I'll use lots of others inputs but the decision at the end is my own. (I don't have an opinion about NVDA at $600 for the long term / long hold).
2) Trying to replicate the interest I have in Tesla to another company just makes me feel tired
My not-advice that is closest to advice I'd come -- be thinking about whether you're taking the depth of knowledge you've developed about Tesla as background, and applying the idea that you have that level of background to a different company. Be sure that you've got that similar level of background if you're trading using that background knowledge. Alternatively be clear and know that you're trading purely on share price movements and not on company fundamentals (and associated trader reactions to those fundamentals, which is really what we're trading on here in this thread).
At least for me those 2 things are very different.
Volatiaty is very low hence low premiums currently
400B TAM with 60% marketshare at 40% operating margin X PE 30= 2.88Trillion dollar company.
This is my most basic assumption.
However, the caveat is that this
1. 400B AI TAM hasn't happen yet. It's a loose guide for 2027 most analysts are having trouble figuring out where it comes from. The best information from what we have is that the 400B TAM would mostly be from inference/ASIC/memory and not from training.
2. Nvidia needs to hold onto a 40% operating margin which currently they are outperforming this due to a lack of competition. This could be a Model Y being sold for 63k moment and people just assume margins will be over 30% till the end of time.
3. The assumption also have them taking 60% of that TAM but if it's a bunch of ASIC and memory products in there, will they having 60% of that TAM when there's also competition from companies like AMD and others?
IMO Nvidia is kind of pricy at current valuation. I think they deserve to be over 1 tril but they are close to 2 tril which is kind of ridiculous.
This is what has been holding me back from really trading NVDA. I see NVDA longs talking on social media and it reminds me so much of how TSLA longs used to be: confident and fearless.2) Trying to replicate the interest I have in Tesla to another company just makes me feel tired
But I just don't have the mental energy to follow NVDA as closely as I've followed TSLA for the last 12 years. And without the conviction that comes with that, it's really hard to be confident in NVDA options trades.
I like Yoona's suggestion of basing it off of delta's. 2 years ago, I would've said 15% OTM for a week out, but with premiums as low as they are (and how little the stock moves), it's kinda like the more mature stocks where there's very little premium for not as much risk.
Like the others, I'm hunting for income by selling cc on other stocks (like COIN). NVDA was profitable until I got burned last month, so I quit while still ahead. I "might" sell a NVDA BCS to play earnings, but I'm more leaning towards buying a long put instead.
I currently have some +170p/-190p/-195c/+225c strangles open for this week and hoping that max-pain saves me. So "best OTM %percentage"? I don't think there is one, but 15% OTM (-165p/-215c) for a monthly option would probably be safe (but that's just based on gut feel with no TA to support it).
I don't have any analysis to back it up, bit I think selling 7DTE +$2 premium -p & -c would win most of the time, at least on non P&D/earnings weeks
I really ought to try this out, at least with an handful of positions, see how it goes... but I'm usually too busy trying to rescue my latest YOLO
I note the DJI hit ATH, did we see some rotation out of tech M7 into industrials today, ahead of CPI?
$ARM up +29% today!! This is a Lucid/Rivian type play, folks searching for the next Nvidia...
$ARM up +29% today!! This is a Lucid/Rivian type play, folks searching for the next Nvidia...
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thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
We closed at 188.13 with further deflation AH.
Overall Macro is not looking that great either.
Are we blowing off some steam gearing up for CPI pump, or is this the beginning of the unwinding from ATH?
The 2nd day ARM Pump also showed it's never too late to jump in after the ER. No need to risk predicting earning. Usually after a very large ER pump there's a retracement the following day and usually that when we can get in cheaper with less risk. That's when people are "cashing in" on the profits.
Easier said then done, as the sense of missing out can be overwhelming sometimes.
Overall Macro is not looking that great either.
Are we blowing off some steam gearing up for CPI pump, or is this the beginning of the unwinding from ATH?
The 2nd day ARM Pump also showed it's never too late to jump in after the ER. No need to risk predicting earning. Usually after a very large ER pump there's a retracement the following day and usually that when we can get in cheaper with less risk. That's when people are "cashing in" on the profits.
Easier said then done, as the sense of missing out can be overwhelming sometimes.
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ChiefRollo
Member
I think…premium is a function of how contrarian the play is; if market is overselling, short options should have low premium. Perhaps that correlates to volatility or at least to the lack of it.
Hmmm, will Chinese New Year holiday screw-up the weekly insurance numbers that we normally get early Tuesday morning, or is that for next week...?
I must admit I have a big itch to close out all my short puts, sell the long puts, and go aggressive on monthly short calls from here, sell some OTM shitCSP's with the extra cash I'd have as a result... guaranteed to cause a rally...
I must admit I have a big itch to close out all my short puts, sell the long puts, and go aggressive on monthly short calls from here, sell some OTM shitCSP's with the extra cash I'd have as a result... guaranteed to cause a rally...
Pretty sure impacts of CNY will be felt next week and the week after. Be prepared for plenty of FUD narrative about the numbers being lower
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Come on now.....we saying system is rigged to FUD Tesla
@Yoona - what are the historical stock movements after CNY? Thanks.
It’s not chatgpt.Come on now.....we saying system is rigged to FUD Tesla
@Yoona - what are the historical stock movements after CNY? Thanks.
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