Thanks @dl003, as a newbie & still in learning mode I appreciate the info you provide as I am sure
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
So the sequence once again worked:
First the stock gets to oversold on the daily at 182.5 on 1/25
Then it bounced and get to overbought on the 15m at 196 on 1/30
Then it dropped and then bounced back stronger, getting to overbought on the 1h at 194 on 2/9
Whats next? After pulling back from this, the stock attempted to get to the 50 line on the daily RSI. The first attempt always lead to a pullback and consolidation, going back as far as January 2022. No matter if it would drop more or shoot up after this pullback, the pullback always happened the first time the stock attempted the 50 line on daily RSI from an oversold state. It did today. That's why I said we're close to a local top. This behavior has been present during both bull and bear markets in TSLA. The pullback may last only a few days.
Yall know about the 209 level. Here's another one. 206.86
That is the daily supertrend resistance. The red staircase looking line on my chart.
It is a very strong resistance. Very hard to break on 1st try from an oversold state. This level is 206.86 right now. Pay attention to all the red arrows. While it's very difficult for the stock to break this resistance on 1st try, once it's finally broken, the stock has ALWAYS retested the breakout level. Sometimes just a few days later, sometimes a few weeks later, but it's always retested it.
To break this level, the stock has to close over 206.86 on the daily timeframe. So the plan, if you're stuck with ITM CC, is very simple:
Just hold out and assume it will get rejected at 206.86 on the daily. It may violate it intraday, but assume it will go back down before EOD. As long as this is the case, wait for the rejection and an eventual retracement to mid 190s, where you can close your call.
However, if the stock can close over 206.86 on the daily, you know it means business. In this case, be prepare to roll your calls out or straight up close it the next time you see 206.86, however long it takes. The next time you see 206.86, the stock may just be going straight down but it can also just tap it before shooting straight up, so I'd not take any chance if it can close above 206.86 on any day.
It means that if you're holding any CC lower than 207.5, there's a chance, however slim it is, you may pay a very steep price to close it out. If you're holding CC over 207.5, the smart thing to do would be to trust the process, and keep rolling it out week by week. If it shoots up and you get scared & roll it out 6 months, by the time it retests 206.86, your CC will not be looking pretty / easy to close out for breakeven.
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TLDW: Selling March -P185 and buying March +C200
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Looks like we get the gap-up today creating a skewed (but still) island reversal. Would be bullish enough to cross all these sub 210 levels in a day. Next week NVDA ER will possibly have a downward effect on the market, so I am very curious if TSLA will follow enough to crash back sub 200 and make a last leg down. Would not be surprised if it does not follow NVDA when down. For now happy to have closed -C210 early and -P300 (June 26) as well although much too early. But hands free for both scenario’s. I will react and take no other overnight positions before next week on $TSLA maybe a bit of day trading only.
For now happy to be long TSLA only.
Thanks @dl003 for resisting and making 99% here happy for EW is too hard to get for me.
Last: might we turn then I will close -P185 for September early. Btw finally HODLing Tomra worked out well on ER. + 31% more than making up for my initial 19% loss. They had a cybersec problem last year which over-hanged but the stock and business is comparable to TSLA with even greater GM and it lost far more from ATH without a clear cause. Fundamentally a big company innovative in recycling, packaging and more.
For now happy to be long TSLA only.
Thanks @dl003 for resisting and making 99% here happy for EW is too hard to get for me.
Last: might we turn then I will close -P185 for September early. Btw finally HODLing Tomra worked out well on ER. + 31% more than making up for my initial 19% loss. They had a cybersec problem last year which over-hanged but the stock and business is comparable to TSLA with even greater GM and it lost far more from ATH without a clear cause. Fundamentally a big company innovative in recycling, packaging and more.
Looking a bit hot pre-market +2%, with PPI incoming, no idea where it will go in main...
Not sure I'm prepared to wait-and-see on 206 being an inflection point as I have 3/1 40x -c175, 100x -c185 & 10x -c200
Sure it might hit 206 -> 209, then drop back, all well and good, or it might just keep going up for no apparent reason as we've seen many times in the past, I prefer to mitigate that risk
Seems like a good moment to use the 100x Jan 2025 +c300 shitcalls I bought a few weeks back, expressly for this purpose, escaping weekly ITM's when the SP reverses...
So, thinking to:
- roll 100x -c185 out to Sep 2024 -c240, I struggle to see the SP going up and staying there right now, but if it did then I'd still have 4 months to roll up to the 30 strike, plus my LEAPS would be printing $$$ so would also be good
- STO weekly 100x -pATM -> I have the 100x July -p150 shipouts I bought earlier this week, use them... then use the premium to close out 20x -c175's, if successful do a similar trade the week after
The 10x -c200's I'll roll weekly, I can 2x, 4x, 8x the contracts there if necessary, but prefer not to, tbh, want to be able to offload my LEAPS if the SP rallies
Still holding 100x June +c300's, these might come back into play
Otherwise thinking to focus a bit more on building my NVDA long puts - sell weekly, buy 6 month DTE - looking to get 30x July/Aug/Sep +p600's, then sell weeklies against those... just needs this first July +p600 & 2/34 -p700 trade to workout, then I'm in business...
Not sure I'm prepared to wait-and-see on 206 being an inflection point as I have 3/1 40x -c175, 100x -c185 & 10x -c200
Sure it might hit 206 -> 209, then drop back, all well and good, or it might just keep going up for no apparent reason as we've seen many times in the past, I prefer to mitigate that risk
Seems like a good moment to use the 100x Jan 2025 +c300 shitcalls I bought a few weeks back, expressly for this purpose, escaping weekly ITM's when the SP reverses...
So, thinking to:
- roll 100x -c185 out to Sep 2024 -c240, I struggle to see the SP going up and staying there right now, but if it did then I'd still have 4 months to roll up to the 30 strike, plus my LEAPS would be printing $$$ so would also be good
- STO weekly 100x -pATM -> I have the 100x July -p150 shipouts I bought earlier this week, use them... then use the premium to close out 20x -c175's, if successful do a similar trade the week after
The 10x -c200's I'll roll weekly, I can 2x, 4x, 8x the contracts there if necessary, but prefer not to, tbh, want to be able to offload my LEAPS if the SP rallies
Still holding 100x June +c300's, these might come back into play
Otherwise thinking to focus a bit more on building my NVDA long puts - sell weekly, buy 6 month DTE - looking to get 30x July/Aug/Sep +p600's, then sell weeklies against those... just needs this first July +p600 & 2/34 -p700 trade to workout, then I'm in business...
Summary from @dl003 for those stuck with ITM CC's:
Plan for ITM CC's
Plan for ITM CC's
- Hold out for $206.86 rejection on the daily. It may violate it intra-day but assume it will go back down before EOD. Wait for the rejection and an eventual retracement to mid-$190s where you can close your call.
- If TSLA closes over $206.86 on the daily, roll your calls out, or close them the next time you see $206.86 (however long it takes). This is because the next time you see $206.86 the stock may just be going straight down, but it can also just tap it before shooting back up, so I'd not take any chances.
- If you're holding CC's over $207.50, keep rolling it out week by week.
- If TSLA shoots up and you get scared and roll it out 6 months, by the time it retests $206.86 your CC's will not be easy to close out for breakeven.
I super appreciate you and your analysis on this thread. Just as when @Yoona left the forum, I think losing you would be a great loss. I have been patiently watching your analysis over the past year to see how much we can trust the EW theories. I did just buy a book to better understand TA, including EW, and I hope that I can begin to leverage that in this thread as well.
There have been two instances where I can remember that the stock has been outside of the bounds of what you predicted using this. Neither of those were black swan events, they were just amplified reactions to ER's or whatever (recent Q4 earnings being an example). With that being said, I am still a bit leery of all of this, but I think it is worthwhile to try and spend time to better understand this to see how I can use this as another tool in my toolbox to be the house.
Wow, PPI HOT HOT HOT! Maybe no need to go nuclear on the calls just yet... we'll see...
what are those instances?
There were instances in the past where the stock would run up, breaking the daily trend resistance and ended up taking months to come back. The last time it happened was @ 150 after the SP 500 inclusion in 2020. Took 2 full years to come back. A couple instances before that were when it was in the low 10s (pre 2016).
The only instance where it went and never came back (yet) was Aril 2020 right after the COVID low @ 40.
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Heads-up FED's Barr speaking at 9:10, he's "neutral", then Daly at 12:10, he's on the "hawkish" side normally
I will probably close my underwater LEAPs then and go short.
I'm guessing those 200 calls was somewhat managed on the pushdown. I still have 200c on all my shares. I may just let them go but I may simply roll it out a month for ~$8 a pop. Decent income for the month and I can take a vacation.
It's way oversold and is screaming to buy some PUTS ... bought 2 Jun 700s for like $40Market is overblown on AI lately. All Elon have to do was mentioned AI 100x last earning and we would have Moon
SMCI - 1000% YTD
View attachment 1018799
Based on recent data last 2 out of 3 times we have a big green candles are followed by additional gain the next day.
View attachment 1018802
Maybe I can start milking them by selling weekly, bi-weekly PUTS ...
NVDA reports next week, and SMCI reports in April 30.
after all the EV hype, it is AI hype time now .... only one TSLA, only one NVDA ....
+ if gap theory holds , there are some big ones on the way down ....
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SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Hoped for an IR that never came.. Now that the gap-up is closed, we're making the road free for the former gap-down to close without island-reversal, which REJECTS the bullish outlook that an island reversal would have brought. So, another leg down after (almost?) hitting 207 is indeed the most likely outcome. Although I use TA the outcome is exactly the same as EW explained by @dl003 yesterday. , so hold on to your -C (I will even open some if we hit 207 today. And close your near the money -P (as I will close my -P185 sept '24.)
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Yes, monthly Mar 15, 24.. although the Mar 22 have a reasonable amount of extra premium (I’m still stuck in 2023).. I’m either taking the roughly $8 for the 210 or ~ $6 for the 215$. Less interest in the mar 22, 24 strikes at this point but if they are over $10 for the $210 I’d probably put half the sale at that time and strikeMar 22 205 or 210 look good, flow wise, 15th less good, 8th good with less premium, 1st no good. Baring monthly which is third week as I understand it, Mar 24 you meant Mar 22 , no ? Asking for a firend
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