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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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STO 2x SMCI 3/22 -p850 @$11.1 -> if I'd waited 5 minutes they were $16, hey ho, it's good enough

Secured against 2x Jan 2026 +p800's = super low risk even if they go ITM
Sold 1 Jan 25 SMCI 300 for $12.50 ... High IV 103% ...
Sold few -745/+725 for this week as well ..
+ Hoping for some price stability after Alpha's (Hedgies) hands over to Beta (401K funds) :)
 
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STC my 10 +p160 3/22 earlier today with a loss (happens) and opened 50 spreads +p130/-p120 4/26 at a better price than I was expecting, but definitely not the best price I could have had. I also used the higher price to roll a bunch of covered short calls out to later dates for more credit. I don't think the narrative has changed, but let's see what the coming weeks bring.
 
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Would like advice on this week's -165/+170.

Lost a lot of value today. Worth about $1.40 now.

1) I could wait until tomorrow
2) Just close it for the loss.
3) Roll it to April 5th (post P&D) -160/+165

I'm kind of leaning toward #3

Edit: Fixed the -/+
 
STO 2x SMCI 3/22 -p850 @$11.1 -> if I'd waited 5 minutes they were $16, hey ho, it's good enough

Secured against 2x Jan 2026 +p800's = super low risk even if they go ITM
probably safe for now
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TSLA pumping today due to raising prices on Model Y. March 22 Euro and April 1st in USA.


My head is wondering why if the cars are not selling? Why increase the prices.
They are selling. Has been a record Q1 throughout Europe so far (except Germany due to the end of EV incentives). The question is if March wave will be smaller than last year, and the effect of two Berlin plant shut downs from two separate terrorist activities (Red Sea and Berlin).
 
TSLA pumping today due to raising prices on Model Y. March 22 Euro and April 1st in USA.


My head is wondering why if the cars are not selling? Why increase the prices.
At least for the US, it's a threat to bring orders forward to Q1
 
TSLA pumping today due to raising prices on Model Y. March 22 Euro and April 1st in USA.


My head is wondering why if the cars are not selling? Why increase the prices.

Perhaps to draw Q2 sales into Q1 by enticing customers to buy now instead of paying more in April.
 
TSLA pumping today due to raising prices on Model Y. March 22 Euro and April 1st in USA.


My head is wondering why if the cars are not selling? Why increase the prices.


Two possible reasons (not mutually exclusive)

1) Pull demand forward to make Q1 numbers look less awful
2) Price elasticity has been poor.... ie a 10% cut does not increase sales 10%--- conversely a couple percent increase might not reduce sales at all... so they're still searching for the optimal price for any given moment in the market where an increase doesn't hurt them, or a cut helps more than it hurts.
 
TSLA pumping today due to raising prices on Model Y. March 22 Euro and April 1st in USA.


My head is wondering why if the cars are not selling? Why increase the prices.
Customers incentivized to buy this quarter. Could add 5K-10K? to delivery numbers ...


Is it just inventory price or also FSD. Sentiment shifted from Gave up on FSD, just FanBois to hey looks like it might work :)
NVDA selling GPU(shovels) to all AI prospector/fortune seekers - but how many are gonna strike gold ;)
 
I didn't close +p160, or -p150 for 3/28. Thinking to buy back -p150 , keeping 75% of the credit , roll the dice on the bought puts for a possible slide back. The timeline concerns me, though. Seems that the probability of lower SP is past 3/28. Take loss now on the whole spread and look for a backfill or split the difference by keeping the bought side and let it ride? Which is worse mindset? Looking for NFA.

^^^ looks like my answer may be in front of my eyes 👀