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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Falling wedge breakout today
Credit: JakeWu
Bouncing off the support going back to 2020:
(Credit: RealProfessorr)
Credit: JakeWu
Bouncing off the support going back to 2020:
(Credit: RealProfessorr)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
I'm confused. Just days ago weren't these the same folks that was saying we go down to 140 or below. Now with a 1 day reversal we hit bottom and go back to 200+.
Doggy going meditate and become one with the stock. It will then till me either up or down. Until then...............................or @dl003 say something
Doggy going meditate and become one with the stock. It will then till me either up or down. Until then...............................or @dl003 say something
The charts—not people—always telegraph/dictate the next move. Nobody is making promisesI'm confused. Just days ago weren't these the same folks that was saying we go down to 140 or below. Now with a 1 day reversal we hit bottom and go back to 200+.
Doggy going meditate and become one with the stock. It will then till me either up or down. Until then...............................or @dl003 say something
To me, theres a chance we are looking at December 1st, 2022 again.I'm confused. Just days ago weren't these the same folks that was saying we go down to 140 or below. Now with a 1 day reversal we hit bottom and go back to 200+.
Doggy going meditate and become one with the stock. It will then till me either up or down. Until then...............................or @dl003 say something
An important low was made at 166 on Nov 22nd and we made a clean impulsive bounce. The 237 - 166 drop looked like it could have been wave C, but then Elon kept selling and it turned out that was only wave 1 of C.
This time, 183 to 160 looks like it could have been wave C, but can also be just 1 of C, meaning 140-145 is still on the table.
There are a few levels:
10 SMA at 174. However, the fact that we are so close to fomc and p&d makes it very likely to be a trap.
183 top of wave B. If we can trade above 183, 200 will be next. no trap in that case.
187 daily downtrend resistance. Very hard to break on first attempt, and if broken should act as a 1 time magnet. Call strikes at 185 and above are relatively safe. See my posts regarding the 206 level & magnet for more details.
183 is also my fib limit for this run.
177 is the 4 hourly downtrend resistance. The stock reached a super overbought level on the 15m today. The hourly is next. I expect this to happen between 177 and 183 before dropping. If the market is really fearing weak q1, we should not trade above 183 between now and EOM.
As of right now, Im a bit in the bull trap camp until 183 is taken out.
So when the SP drops 5% everyone thinks we're going to 100, one day of +6% and suddenly 250 is on the cards...
I'm working on the basis that Q1 numbers are going to suck and the stock will react accordingly, maybe I'm wrong, we will see in a couple of weeks
I'm working on the basis that Q1 numbers are going to suck and the stock will react accordingly, maybe I'm wrong, we will see in a couple of weeks
I also lean towards the bull trap perspective.
Although I don't heavily analyze technicals, I think it's logical to consider the past events when the stock hit $100. At that time, everyone insisted that nothing fundamental about the company had changed and it was a good opportunity to "buy the dip." They were correct, as the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was around 25, comparable to that of Apple (AAPL).
However, the situation now seems to have reversed, yet the narrative is similar. What has really changed since the stock was at $165, when people were considering buying protective puts and selling their long positions? The challenges like interest rates remain, Elon Musk's unpredictability is still a factor, and the production and delivery (P&D) numbers are hovering around 430-450k, which isn't amazing. Moreover, the forward P/E ratio has increased to 58 from 55. Not exactly cheap.
Trading for quick gains might be a play for the brave, but I would be cautious about doing anything bullish long term at this point.
I'm with you here! I'm not sure if I said it in a previous post but if you are trimming long term shares here be careful of the bounces, that's when FOMO hits. If you aren't confident about the company just wait it out.
On one of my accounts I sold TSLA last year at 160 (after that 55% jump) and bought QQQ at around $300. I felt like trash when TSLA hit $300 but I had even more shares to trim down on the main account so I guess I didn't lose out too much. If you are selling make sure you know why and don't second guess yourself due to volatility.
Although I don't heavily analyze technicals, I think it's logical to consider the past events when the stock hit $100. At that time, everyone insisted that nothing fundamental about the company had changed and it was a good opportunity to "buy the dip." They were correct, as the forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was around 25, comparable to that of Apple (AAPL).
However, the situation now seems to have reversed, yet the narrative is similar. What has really changed since the stock was at $165, when people were considering buying protective puts and selling their long positions? The challenges like interest rates remain, Elon Musk's unpredictability is still a factor, and the production and delivery (P&D) numbers are hovering around 430-450k, which isn't amazing. Moreover, the forward P/E ratio has increased to 58 from 55. Not exactly cheap.
Trading for quick gains might be a play for the brave, but I would be cautious about doing anything bullish long term at this point.
I'm with you here! I'm not sure if I said it in a previous post but if you are trimming long term shares here be careful of the bounces, that's when FOMO hits. If you aren't confident about the company just wait it out.
On one of my accounts I sold TSLA last year at 160 (after that 55% jump) and bought QQQ at around $300. I felt like trash when TSLA hit $300 but I had even more shares to trim down on the main account so I guess I didn't lose out too much. If you are selling make sure you know why and don't second guess yourself due to volatility.
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Q&D, ER trumps any TA
Oh I hold no TSLA as of now and no current plan to reinvest...
What changed end 2022 to now? Everything... back then the 50% CAGR was still in play, coupled with 25% - 30% auto margins, and the stock dumped to 100
And although I believe that 2022 crash was largely fabricated and fuelled by over-leveraged gamblers on margin, now we have a ZERO growth rate, about to look like -15% with the incoming P&D, and auto margins 50% from what they were and no clarity on whether they will drop further
Would be justified if the stock dropped to 100 from here, it's completely overvalued at this moment, sure if you're very forward looking and have time on your hands, that's another matter
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Largely agree, but otoh usually want to resist the urge to capitulate, especially if that is the broader mood.
I'de also like to add my 2 cents, I would like to point out that I don't think interest rates are what halted the growth story. It was actually Elon, not primarily due to his social media presence (though it might have contributed), but rather his distractions that led to the delay of the more affordable car, and also his ego.
I believe he thought he could significantly undercut competitors with the price cuts last January, expecting to trigger an unprecedented surge in demand and achieve an easy 50% year-on-year growth. However, he was mistaken. If he had been more attentive, he would have prepared earlier initiatives. Instead, he relied on engaging in price wars and maintaining the same four models along with Teslas superior manufacturing. He also stubbornly refused to invest in advertising for a long time. I think the period from 2020 to 2022 greatly inflated his ego, making him feel invincible. I hope he finds a way to stay grounded soon.
Experimenting with reading Vanna and Gamma, looks like a down draft through 167.5 to 165 this morning is possible as is a follow reverse climb up though 175. When opening bear put spreads , is the intent to scalp when position goes green or pure conviction to hold 'til near expiry? Do you buy back the sold side only when SP climbs to capture profit and hold long to rewrite against? To cut losses (maybe too early), yesterday I shifted 3/28 -p150/+p160 expiry down and out to April, $20 lower. I'd like to get better at managing these to my advantage, they are different dynamic than bull put spread.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
They're not.
Teslas are cheaper today, with 7-8% loans, than they were when loans were 2%-- the price cuts (and IRA credits) far outweigh the higher interest on car loans.
FWIW I largely agree with your other points too, but I can at least see how someone can argue them... the above one though is just math.
Macro is down after yesterday's rally, ahead of FOMC tomorrow. I thought this would happen, but wasn't confident enough, so I rolled my -165/+170P to April 5th -160/+165 while they still had value. Regretting it now. But, this might be a trap the Bears and go. We could easily go green again today. I might have a stop loss on my 175CC with the thought of raising the strike if we rally again....
I cannot advise on weekly spreads because I never do them, but appears to me that playing with them so close to the money brings constant tales of woe. Hence I do calendars, you cough-up for the long leg, but they behave like CSP's, which is far more comfortable
Paging @Singuy - NVDA, what's all that about, looked like a pretty decent event yesterday, so a "sell the news" thing?
Meanwhile SMCI, you were warned!
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
SMCI sliced through 7 delta like butter......I cannot advise on weekly spreads because I never do them, but appears to me that playing with them so close to the money brings constant tales of woe. Hence I do calendars, you cough-up for the long leg, but they behave like CSP's, which is far more comfortable
Paging @Singuy - NVDA, what's all that about, looked like a pretty decent event yesterday, so a "sell the news" thing?
Meanwhile SMCI, you were warned!
they got side wacked by NVDA with their announced partnership with Dell to build more Servers.
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