To be honest, I see the data but don't know if/how to trade on it. Do any of you use option flow to inform trades (selling/buying calls/puts) and how?
Calls still growing:
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
very high probability of ~150 next weekThanks. You've shared a lot already so I hate to ask, but can you summarize in words what you're seeing for the next two weeks for TSLA levels-wise? It's difficult for me to parse this data from the probability charts.
Putting it out there for feedbacks. Going to recalibrate as we end the week. Thanks TeacherThat doesn’t seem to be anywhere near your normal learned pattern.. BET FIVE to possibly MAKE ONE?
This 0.01% scenario continued to be elusive and the stock is doing what has been expected of it. It may have broken 160, but all that did, at least at the moment, was push it further along the bottoming process UNTIL it crashes, if it crashes. If it doesn't crash, a stock getting to the last stage of bottoming should scare shorts a bit.the 3rd leg down of a falling wedge has to meet, or (99.99% of the time) exceed the 2nd leg. Bottom of the 2nd leg was 160.51. It touched 160.51 again today. TECHNICALLY, that could have been it. Of course ER is going to decide, but this drop sure has thrown a wrench in my model. I hate to consider this 0.01% scenario but it is what we're having right now.
View attachment 1035878
ThanksThis 0.01% scenario continued to be elusive and the stock is doing what has been expected of it. It may have broken 160, but all that did, at least at the moment, was push it further along the bottoming process UNTIL it crashes, if it crashes. If it doesn't crash, a stock getting to the last stage of bottoming should scare shorts a bit.
Yes, it’s in the SEC filing itself. You can find a link to the full filing a little further up, but here is the relevant paragraph. This is the way the world works… outcomes in situations like this are pre-determined.Is there a citation for this?
Could this be the same scenario with the PD week. We all bet it crash and then it just traded sideway?This 0.01% scenario continued to be elusive and the stock is doing what has been expected of it. It may have broken 160, but all that did, at least at the moment, was push it further along the bottoming process UNTIL it crashes, if it crashes. If it doesn't crash, a stock getting to the last stage of bottoming should scare shorts a bit.
Could this be the same scenario with the PD week. We all bet it crash and then it just traded sideway?
Reload CCs NTM/ITM close DTE or higher/further out, or long puts (or both)?Looking to reload on a rally to 160+ by end of week.
Because huge walls like that don't tend to be breached, doesn't mean it won't happen, which is why I sold $10 lower at 140, some wiggle-room, should be able to roll those down a bit, in any case, my +p150's will be +200% at 140, could be the moment to sell anyway, who knows!Wow. What are you seeing that lead you to that expectation?
Before P&D, the sentiment was not as bearish as it is now. I myself chose to stay on the sideline due to a misread. After P&D was when everybody got super duper bearish to a huge surprise to the upside. That bearish sentiment has not changed in the last 2 weeks so I'd not call them 2 scenarios. It is still the same scenario playing out. Considering how big the "bull trap" (or was it a short squeeze? did anyone get bullish?) was ($19 from 161 to 179) vs how small the break was ($8 from 161 to 153), there is a cause for caution if you're short. Sure the stock still has more room to drop and even crash, but at the moment I don't see it yet.Could this be the same scenario with the PD week. We all bet it crash and then it just traded sideway?
I have not added any Put Spread and was just contemplating selling out of the money call @170C or above to be safe.
Any changes to your positioning for ER week?
I think we might getting a peak in through the window about what Wall St is valuing Tesla's autonomy/vision...which if that is indeed the case, it's a valuation based on far out earnings and growth and thus I would expect TSLA to detach from macro's and be more driven by FSD progress over the next couple of months until Aug 8th.The irony (and awful luck) is that the week of Tesla’s pivotal Earnings Report may be the week the markets in general implode, adding downward pressure.
Unless one believes that just as TSLA didn’t rally with the ATH market=it won’t crash with them either
On a side note - do institutional investors who own stock because of ETFs vote ? I can understand them voting when they have the stock in managed mutual funds.Look
It has already been reported that 4 of the largest institutional shareholders already went to the company and said for them to do this, that they would support it. You think Tesla would take this step without knowing what Blackrock, Vanguard, T Rowe Price and others will do? That’s not how the world works
Not sure because it depends where the stock goes. I’d want downside protection heading into the weekend, maybe CCs NTM and long puts with strikes $10 below the SP for 4/26. I’d close them out before the ER if they were to go green enough.Reload CCs NTM/ITM close DTE or higher/further out, or long puts (or both)?
Just ask GrokOn a side note - do institutional investors who own stock because of ETFs vote ? I can understand them voting when they have the stock in managed mutual funds.