I’m thinking a buy back could happen if we crash down near $100 but you’re right that with upcoming capital expenditures and now lower free cash flow, it’s not something Elon would be likely to do.The worst thing that the board can do right now is to buy back. "Balls to the wall" and "buyback" can't coexist. TSLA needs all the capital it has for the next phase, be it to survive an economic downturn or to launch RT.
Your bear thesis hinges on Elon being an a-hole who prioritizes his personal gain over the mission, who will sabotage the stock if he doesn't get what he wants. I'm not saying that's not true, but if it is true, makes no sense to be invested. Not now, not ever.
Re: Elon being an a-hole - not that he would purposely sabotage the company, but he is a busy guy and he might be able to find more time to actively support the stock price if he was actually being compensated.
We know he doesn’t really care about the day to day SP but it sure seemed like he was more on the ball with Tesla when he had to hit those comp plan milestones.