Just like the market I've lost some fate in Tesla/TSLA over the last few months.
Model 3 and Y have to keep the company afloat for the next 2-3 years, but in China the competition is getting very tough (with a lot of fresh designs) and in the US the low hanging fruit has been picked and it's harder to find new customers. Cybertruck is the bright spot there. In Europe the situation seems to be stable.
Energy is starting to look like the eternal promise; the huge growth we are expecting is still not materialising.
So TSLA will have to depend on FSD progress and Robotaxi. I still see a lot of obstacles on the way to 99,999% reliability and I don't have high expectations for Robotaxi in terms of financial potential. But if the market does have that confidence it will also need a lot of patience. I don't think Robotaxi (and Model 2) will be ready for mass production within 3 years. It feels as if Elon's surprise 8/8 Robotaxi announcement also caught his team off guard.
The positive news is that he seems to be back at the helm - hopefully not because of the option package vote - but he doesn't control external circumstances. So I expect more price cuts, lower or no growth and lower EPS for a while. I suspect that will keep downward pressure on the stock.
Model 3 and Y have to keep the company afloat for the next 2-3 years, but in China the competition is getting very tough (with a lot of fresh designs) and in the US the low hanging fruit has been picked and it's harder to find new customers. Cybertruck is the bright spot there. In Europe the situation seems to be stable.
Energy is starting to look like the eternal promise; the huge growth we are expecting is still not materialising.
So TSLA will have to depend on FSD progress and Robotaxi. I still see a lot of obstacles on the way to 99,999% reliability and I don't have high expectations for Robotaxi in terms of financial potential. But if the market does have that confidence it will also need a lot of patience. I don't think Robotaxi (and Model 2) will be ready for mass production within 3 years. It feels as if Elon's surprise 8/8 Robotaxi announcement also caught his team off guard.
The positive news is that he seems to be back at the helm - hopefully not because of the option package vote - but he doesn't control external circumstances. So I expect more price cuts, lower or no growth and lower EPS for a while. I suspect that will keep downward pressure on the stock.