Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Yoona]

tsla: it seems we have a new DP 164.45 (supp or res?), the biggest and baddest of them all

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I hope many people took advantage of the sub 160 price this morning to roll their stuff out. The flow is real. The more people trying to call the top or a bull trap here, the more it's going to squeeze. Note that we've not been in a daily uptrend since January 8th. If we close above 163.5 today it will be a certain change of short term characteristic. I'd not want to stand in front of that train until the smoke clears.

Now, where are those price cuts when you need them?

Depending on the PCE number on Friday, Macro's could act as persistent price cuts headwinds as TSLA starts a new uptrend.

Or the PCE number could come in cool which would be like throwing gasoline on the fire for TSLA to go higher sooner.

 

[BornToFly]

I hope many people took advantage of the sub 160 price this morning to roll their stuff out. The flow is real. The more people trying to call the top or a bull trap here, the more it's going to squeeze. Note that we've not been in a daily uptrend since January 8th. If we close above 163.5 today it will be a certain change of short term characteristic. I'd not want to stand in front of that train until the smoke clears.

Now, where are those price cuts when you need them?

So you don't think we end the week below 165?

 

[MP3Mike]

But in case you're still unsure this is the 25k car- later in the call we have a shareholder question of:

And in reply, Lars Moravy, VP of Vehicle Engineering, tells us


Now, that 25k car isn't the full unboxed one--- so I guess you could say it's not "the" 25k car- but it's clearly a 25k car unless Elon- and especially Lars, are lying in the above dialog.

I don't think you can read Lars' statement that way. He answered the question about the $25k car by saying "I think Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks." At that point the question was answered. He then went on to talk about their current plans for new vehicles, that are likely not $25k vehicles.

In the opening remarks Elon said they changed the future line-up. I read that as the $25k car is delayed, but there are different more affordable models that will take its place in early 2025. (But they aren't likely to be $25k.)

 

[Yoona]

So you don't think we end the week below 165?

supertrend and fib both exactly at 163.21 (possible supp turned into res)

 

[BornToFly]

Regarding my 172.5CC....

I'm asking myself. Would I open a 172.5CC for 0.5 with 2DTE after a 12% run up? I think I would. So why would I close it now out of fear...?

 

[BornToFly]

For my 167.5CCs, I could roll them up to 172.5 same expiration (this Friday), by giving back the original premium. No real debit....

 

[jeewee3000]

For my 167.5CCs, I could roll them up to 172.5 same expiration (this Friday), by giving back the original premium. No real debit....

What happened to our pre-BPS-discovery days?

Back then we said: "I'll roll the $167.5cc's when the SP reaches $167.5".

Joking aside, if it were me, I'd just put an alert on my WeBull- app for when TSLA hits $167 and only THEN start to freak out and look for a roll.

EDIT: this is only helpful if you don't have a job where you can't look at your phone every ten minutes.

 

[Discoducky]

today on the call, nothing really breaking about FSD was revealed.

Ashok revealed, and I wish I could have asked him directly, that Tesla is on the March of 9s, however, he basically explains it in this clip, which is, IMO, the most important 5 minutes of information on the future value of Tesla as this will enable unsupervised FSD and Optimus.

In summary: Tesla has implemented project "Vacation" which allows "human out of the loop" cyclic iteration of ever increasing reliability in new builds due to inclusion of intervention assignment, review and validation to ensure it is handled by the next build appropriately through both real world clips (open loop) and simulation (closed loop).

NOTE: March of 9s could take anywhere from months to years, but just being "on it" is a huge milestone.
Another NOTE:

• Whenever the build goes from 12.X to 12.Y, expect feature improvements and more reliability
• Whenever the build goes from 12.3.X to 12.3.Y, expect NO feature improvements and regressions. Why? These builds are more likely include "policy" changes whereby the NNs are restricted more and more resulting in trying to "weed out" unwanted behaviors to be fixed by NN improvements in the next 12.Y build.
  • I hope that makes sense

 

[Knightshade]

I don't think you can read Lars' statement that way. He answered the question about the $25k car by saying "I think Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks." At that point the question was answered. He then went on to talk about their current plans for new vehicles, that are likely not $25k vehicles.

In the opening remarks Elon said they changed the future line-up. I read that as the $25k car is delayed, but there are different more affordable models that will take its place in early 2025. (But they aren't likely to be $25k.)

This is just factually untrue, despite your spamming me with disagrees.

Here's Elons entire opening remarks on new vehicles to which Lars is referring. It contains ZERO references to delays of any kind (quite the opposite)

In terms of the new product road map, there's been a lot of talk about our upcoming vehicle line in the next -- in the past several weeks. We've updated our future vehicle lineup to accelerate the launch of new models ahead, previously mentioned start of production in the second half of 2025. So, we expect it to be more like the early 2025, if not late this year. These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will use aspects of the next-generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and we'll be able to produce on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup.

So, it's not contingent upon any new factory or massive new production line, it will be made on our current production lines much more efficiently. And we think this should allow us to get to over 3 million vehicles of capacity when realized to the full extent.

When asked for a timeline on a 25k vehicle Lars then said "Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks"

The ONLY vehicle Elon mentioned in his opening remarks is the one coming much sooner.

So that must be the 25k vehicle the question asked about.

 

[Yoona]

another gift from smci 50-pt drop, i am taking it and i am done for the week

discord after 4 rounds this wk

secret sauce: take profits when you see them

 

[Discoducky]

This is just factually untrue, despite your spamming me with disagrees.

Here's Elons entire opening remarks on new vehicles to which Lars is referring. It contains ZERO references to delays of any kind (quite the opposite)






When asked for a timeline on a 25k vehicle Lars then said "Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks"

The ONLY vehicle Elon mentioned in his opening remarks is the one coming much sooner.

So that must be the 25k vehicle the question asked about.

Yep, it is coming as early as Q4 this year, with incremental improvements culminating in the full "unboxed" manufacturing process later.

 

[dl003]

25k car is dead. They just said they will make some low cost models in the same production line. We dont' know the shape and cost of it. They refused to talk about it.

"$25k car" is an idea, representing Tesla's commitment to expanding sales in parallel with FSD/RT. That idea was reinvigorated yesterday. Mk doesn't care if its 25k or 30k.

 

[BornToFly]

We were spoiled when it came to selling CCs the last few weeks. It isn't so easy when the SP can actually go UP on you....

 

[elasalle]

Unboxed process - egg
25k car - chicken

They decided to make the chicken 1st

As number of chickens grows- there will be continued process improvements until we end up with an egg(unboxed process)

Till yesterday Mr Market was like they haven’t even laid the eggs, definitely no chicken

 

[tivoboy]

View attachment 1041280

OMG, are you watching economic data now???? .. release the algo!

 

[MP3Mike]

Here's Elons entire opening remarks on new vehicles to which Lars is referring. It contains ZERO references to delays of any kind (quite the opposite)

Of course, what Elon was saying was mostly read from the slidedeck; with him leaving a lot out:

We have updated our future vehicle line-up to accelerate the launch of new models ahead of our previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025.

These new vehicles, including more affordable models, will utilize aspects of the next generation platform as well as aspects of our current platforms, and will be able to be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle line-up.

This update may result in achieving less cost reduction than previously expected but enables us to prudently grow our vehicle volumes in a more capex efficient manner during uncertain times. This would help us fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 50% growth over 2023 production before investing in new manufacturing lines.

Our purpose-built robotaxi product will continue to pursue a revolutionary “unboxed” manufacturing strategy.

I bolded what I think are the important parts. That there isn't going to be as much cost savings, making $25k highly unlikely, and that the Robotaxi is still planned to use the "unboxed" method. The "Robotaxi product" is likely the $25k vehicle, and it is likely delayed as they shifted focus to different vehicles first.

Maybe they are still planning to make the $25k vehicle in the second half of 2025, but they don't clearly say if the new vehicles replace that, or are in addition to that. (I think they replaced it.)

 

[BornToFly]

I closed my -160/+165P for $2.56
I didn't want to loose that money if the SP closes above 165 on Friday, given that my CCs will also be under pressure if the SP goes up. The goal is to have positions that make money in both directions. Mine, going into ER, were all positioned to make money on the downside only (or limited SP bump).

 

[MP3Mike]

Unboxed process - egg
25k car - chicken

They decided to make the chicken 1st

No, they decided to make something entirely different first. (New more affordable vehicles based on the 3/Y, but won't have the cost savings of the unboxed process that are what would allow the $25k vehicle.)

 

[Knightshade]

Of course, what Elon was saying was mostly read from the slidedeck; with him leaving a lot out:

But Lars didn't not answer "when 25k car" with "read the slide deck"

He answered with "Elon mentioned it in the opening remarks"

It being the 25k car.

That Elon said was coming either end of this year or early next.

Keep disagreeing I guess, but based on the actual words used you're simply wrong.
(and even in the deck less cost savings just means less gross margin- not that they can't still sell it for 25k)