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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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They said some more of FSD revenue was recognized due to autopark feature being released on the call right? 12.3.6 just came out and has autopark for USS cars. Does this mean another bump in revenue recognition for this quarter?
I don't think so, because those cars already had a "fully functioning" Autopark. This is just a new better version. (This is the third version for USS vehicles.)
 
I have some loose funds.
I’m hesitating to buy leaps again, sell ITM puts, buy SPY. Don’t really know what to do anymore.
A lot of it really depends on your trading frequency. I sold some -250P for 12/2026 mainly to leverage time decay; I would much rather be an option seller than buyer in Tesla today. I don't really want to do more than 2-3 trades in a week though. It is easier to trade NVDA right now for sure.

What I don't know is how to position for the (US) election if I plan out 6 months. I have already maxxed out what I like to show for capital gains in a year (long-term not trading), so my tax planning gets complicated.
 
Someone correct me cause idk how some of this stuff works financially:
They said some more of FSD revenue was recognized due to autopark feature being released on the call right? 12.3.6 just came out and has autopark for USS cars. Does this mean another bump in revenue recognition for this quarter?
It could be. Technically these are milestones, and we just don't know what is their scale for these milestones. These could be internal metrics, like Daily Active Users. Previously I used FSD maybe once a week, just to see how it is progressing, and report some lane change errors, mostly. Or regressions. Now I use it multiple times a day. In my mind it is worth another milestone in FSD revenue recognition.
 
After reading Isaacsson Musk’s bio, I came to understand Elon doesn’t answer to anybody, even Kimball when he calls him for open loop destroying behaviour like he did with the Pedoguy story. It is good when you think you will succeed and everybody think you will fail to continue doing what you do to change the world however for self destructing behaviour like in his personal relationship it might not be the greatest personably trait someone would actively search. The SP is so volatile because of options market and loose canon CEO on his social skills. However this was makes Tesla so great, because of his engineering skills and his relentlessness.

I have some loose funds.
I’m hesitating to buy leaps again, sell ITM puts, buy SPY. Don’t really know what to do anymore.
That is good. In my opinion we are at the local top, just because the leadership is narrow, and valuations are questioned. I think we are overdue for a rebalancing and PE multiple compression. So, in my mind it is justified to question the direction from here...
 
After reading Isaacsson Musk’s bio, I came to understand Elon doesn’t answer to anybody, even Kimball when he calls him for open loop destroying behaviour like he did with the Pedoguy story. It is good when you think you will succeed and everybody think you will fail to continue doing what you do to change the world however for self destructing behaviour like in his personal relationship it might not be the greatest personably trait someone would actively search. The SP is so volatile because of options market and loose canon CEO on his social skills. However this was makes Tesla so great, because of his engineering skills and his relentlessness.

I have some loose funds.
I’m hesitating to buy leaps again, sell ITM puts, buy SPY. Don’t really know what to do anymore.
That's why I like my mix: longest LEAPs I can get, monthly long calls, long puts, weekly short puts and longs... try to capture the weekly IV and Theta, while being protected from a big move in either direction, sort of
 
The 10 B spend this year will probably help the highway stack, which is still V11 in V12, to be end to end just like city streets

I wonder how the market will react to Elons comment, that is like 40% of their cash
Nuance: the 10B number is training compute and inference in the car. The inference compute in the car is the HW3 / HW4 FSD chip, which Tesla "spends" when creating the vehicle but the end customer pays for this in their purchase price.

So I'd say max 6B in compute spend. Will the market realise this? Of course not, WS can spin this any way they like.
 
Just when I thought i was out THEY PULL ME BACK IN.

I opened a new long position today. Back when I sold my TSLA at 187 I put that money into QQQ, Google and Apple. I've sold Google (profit) Apple (loss) to buy back in in the 170's. Just a small position. Sold shares at 167 which I won't buy back yet and other former TSLA shares still in index and NVDA.

Not sure if this will be a trade or a long term position. I'm thinking of cutting dry at 200 but Dl003 seems a little bullish going into end of year. May be worth holding onto them since it's such a small position.
 
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Just when I thought i was out THEY PULL ME BACK IN.

I opened a new long position today. Back when I sold my TSLA at 187 I put that money into QQQ, Google and Apple. I've sold Google (profit) Apple (loss) to buy back in in the 170's. Just a small position. Sold shares at 167 which I won't buy back yet and other former TSLA shares still in index and NVDA.

Not sure if this will be a trade or a long term position. I'm thinking of cutting dry at 200 but Dl003 seems a little bullish going into end of year. May be worth holding onto them since it's such a small position.
Well +8% pre market, you went long at the right time!
 
Happy to have gotten all in a bit better timed than last year. Only missed out 10 dollars on half of the package the rise since very bottom, due to stepping out @ $162-ish to get that portion back (LEAPS only this time) @ 172-ish. But via missing out on more than 20 dollars loss on all shares (via selling them somewhere in the drop) I am net-positive through this valley.
Positions now:
+ C dec '24 $90 (@ $ 87.87)
+ C dec '24 100 (@77.02)
-P dec '26 250 (@95.55)
-P dec '26 300 (@137.07
Lots of long positions PYPL PLTR SOFI NVO TOMRA WGLD (Gold)
short GM dec '26 (via + p $35)
 
This weekend is the exact type of scenario that I’ve been calling out as the reason I won’t play short term options with TSLA this low.

FSD and any news related to FSD can cause an immediate rally that will disconnect short term fundamentals and valuation.
Yeah, I had my fingers crossed for such an event during the big fast drop in which I was out of stock and out of options.
FSD China means a lot of deferred revenue AND especially higher take-rates coming, because take-rate on FSD so far was very low in China.
We all know how big that market is.
Next Catalyst: How long will it take for FSD licensing to BYD to be announced? That will give a 10% SP-up response for sure.
 
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Looks like we're heading for another >10% gap-up in two weeks 😂

I can imagine there are some shorties holding on last week expecting a pull back, looking nasty for them

For those of us expecting 170 - 180... 🤪

I have 100x -p170/-c175 in play, thank goodness I wrote the puts on Friday, even while drunk! At this SP my Jan 2025 +c300's shitcalls come into play to roll up and out, which then frees-up my underwater 60x +c200's to be sold off the opportunity arises
 
Well +8% pre market, you went long at the right time!

It's only 20% of my original position and I sold 27% of that original position at 167. So I'm not exactly the master of timing lol.

See what happens. Fundamentals are terrible, at this rate our forward P/E is going to start going towards 100 and we are pretty much buying this stock on FSD hope alone. Which means the stock can crash incredibly fast.
 
I don't get the enthusiasm in the market. For FSD to work in China Tesla needs lots of Chinese driving data. They are not allowed to export the data to the US for analysis and processsing, and they are not allowed to export to China the AI-hardware to process the data. Those issues need to be tackled. How are Baidu's maps going to help speed up FSD roll-out in China?

Not meant to start a technical discussion, just wondering aloud why the market thinks Baidu's maps are worth a 10% SP rise.