Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[elasalle]

Closed 2 Fri 175 PUTS (sold last Thurs $6.70, closed 1.79)

Now will open for next Fri (don't mind assignment, and we have one FOMC meeting this week)
3 STO $180 PUTS for $5.20 each next Fri expiration

 

[Cherry Wine]

Call IV juicing.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

quarter of a day's volume in only 3 minutes!!!!!

 

[phantasms]

Sold 200c for Friday on all shares. Come and get them FOMO people.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I smell a short squeeze..

 

[Discoducky]

I don't get the enthusiasm in the market. For FSD to work in China Tesla needs lots of Chinese driving data. They are not allowed to export the data to the US for analysis and processsing, and they are not allowed to export to China the AI-hardware to process the data. Those issues need to be tackled. How are Baidu's maps going to help speed up FSD roll-out in China?

Not meant to start a technical discussion, just wondering aloud why the market thinks Baidu's maps are worth a 10% SP rise.

1. Auto-Run FSD in shadow mode in China to collect data from customer cars
2. Manual-Employ professional drivers to collect actual ground truth disengagements
3. Auto-Determine delta of disengagements from customers data
4. Manual-Determine delta from example clips in China and US/Canada
5. This has most likely converged and/or consistently similar enough to keep training the model in the US
6. Eventually it will most likely make sense to establish a training data center in-country and go full 'data sovereignty' compliant. (This is where I think they are now)

 

[bmd00]

Thank you for this information @bmd00. Someone on the other thread stated about 20 minutes ago to check the 24hour movement on TSLA, and although I don’t put much into before and after hours pricing, TSLA was at $175 about 20 minutes ago, and now it is at $177. That is a significant increase from Friday close.

I wonder what this means as @dI003 mentioned yesterday and you mentioned above, we will probably retrace down to about $159 by mid-May. Is this still in play if we get over $178 on Monday?

Is $159 still in play? It's much less likely now that SP opened at $188. Watch for SP to retrace starting sometime between today and Thursday. Other than the obvious fundamental developments, there are too many people starting to get FOMO which is making it very hard for tsla to retrace. When it does retrace, it could pull back sharply which will create some doubt for anyone looking to get long. Just be prepared. Best to not get in front of the moving train by selling calls or buying puts when SP is gapping up huge. The best thing to do is get long and stay long until the trend has once again reversed, which will likely be several weeks, maybe months.

 

[elasalle]

Is $159 still in play? It's much less likely now that SP opened at $188. Watch for SP to retrace starting sometime between today and Thursday. Other than the obvious fundamental developments, there are too many people starting to get FOMO which is making it very hard for tsla to retrace. When it does retrace, it could pull back sharply which will create some doubt for anyone looking to get long. Just be prepared. Best to not get in front of the moving train by selling calls or buying puts when SP is gapping up huge. The best thing to do is get long and stay long until the trend has once again reversed, which will likely be several weeks, maybe months.

We have FOMC April 30/may 1st this week.

Market is like sheep in FOMO... might stay that way till AI day (8/8). Aunt Cathie must be happy today
(July - P&D numbers will also come into play)

With 10B AI spend(just this year), maybe it makes sense to think of tesla also as a AI company and not just a car company.
With FSD subscription, even with like 10% take rates - like 40-50M in US /quarter, now if we add China ..., and EU ...
+ subscription FSD revenue doesn't need to be deferred. cheers!!

 

[BornToFly]

Yeah, I need FOMC to save me....

 

[dc_h]

I thought the battle for 172.5 was interesting last week. I now have 185 CC's for this week and will perhaps sell more 200CC's for Friday. Will this mornings rally create a FOMO event, or bring in bears to profit off of a short term jump? Does Elon \ Tesla have a line up of opportunities now that they think they have FSD ready to go? 3 years ago it would have been a stretch to get everyone onboard Tesla's charging standard. Will FSD become the standard L5 solution? Hard to model the finances, but could lead to some over reaction and big NVDA like rise. While 185 seemed conservative, to me, last week, 200 now seems in play.
I will let my 185 calls stay and wait to see how the rally plays out. As noted last week, 830 buys are dumb money. A lot of FOMO and perhaps it will pay off, but likely some measured trades will level things off, barring required short covering. I sold 200 calls for Friday, a little late perhaps, but IV is up from prior weeks and a good premium. Will see if I need to roll either the 185 or 200's.

 

[Patrick66]

Not meant to start a technical discussion, just wondering aloud why the market thinks Baidu's maps are worth a 10% SP rise.

6. Eventually it will most likely make sense to establish a training data center in-country and go full 'data sovereignty' compliant. (This is where I think they are now)

As I understand it, Tesla got approval for their data localization infrastructure in China yesterday (US time). It is not just about Baidu, but a more significant step, likely putting them close to the US in FSD 12.3 progress in the short term.

 

[tivoboy]

As I understand it, Tesla got approval for their data localization infrastructure in China yesterday (US time). It is not just about Baidu, but a more significant step, likely putting them close to the US in FSD 12.3 progress in the short term.

@Right_Said_Fred summed it up precisely and gets a pass for going off topic.. ;-)

Tesla can’t export the vehicle/user/driving data from Chinese vehicles TO USA for Tesla AI to use as training data to train FSD in the Chinese environment, AND they can’t IMPORT the AI infrastructure TO CHINA in order to do in country training on Chinese local user data. (Not that they would want to as this would be VERY expensive overall)..

Also, they really needed much better mapping data in country, which is essential but doesn’t really provide the vision source data, AI processing capability or training detail for FSD - but is certainly foundational for any of the AI compute or inference to be possible. It was sort of a catch 22..

All I think we have at this point, is YES you MAY use and work with Baidu and incorporate their mapping data into your cars… step ONE.

Step TWO - X is going to be either we’re going to build LOCAL AI Compute - with local viable chips and infrastructure - meaning no USA AI export restrictions - this could just be older hardware.. OR they are going to partner with someone LOCAL - LIKE BAIDU - and use their already in place AI compute - fed the Tesla vision and driver data from local population, vehicles and sources and do the FSD processing locally. This would be a HUGE step and the trust fall of all business trust falls. - and frankly something I would never do.

At this point, we don’t really know. But, we seem to have cleared STEP ONE.

Short term change in direction is well, obvious but at this MOMENT i think we’re dealing with a solid short squeeze..

Med - longer term, no change in thesis, but FOMO IS FOMO.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I sold 6 ATM CCs last week at 162.50 on the 600 shares I got assigned
However I am long on 100x 110Jan2025 Leaps and sold 30 ITM Puts at 300 for June2026. I hurt and am happy at the same time

 

[Yoona]

on the 1-Hr chart, TSLA is beating the Mag 7 (white line)

weak MMD at 10am, but enuf to keep sp from rising last 30 mins

 

[TexasGator]

well that was exciting! rolled my -C170s/-C175s for this week to 5/17 -C180s

Yeah, I need FOMC to save me....

and then in solidarity with BTF, sold some -C190s for this week to cover the losses from above. so far seems like a good idea but the week is young

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The smoke around BYD being the auto maker that Tesla is in talks with for FSD licensing just got a lot thicker over the weekend.

Also that volume....nearly full days trading volume in the first hour and a half

 

[Knightshade]

Sold 200c for Friday on all shares. Come and get them FOMO people.

Same, FWIW- though I do intend to roll if we get especially near that strike

 

[jeewee3000]

-190c/-190p straddle in place for next week. Ratio 3:1

This "fixes" all my positions. Best case we end at $189, my calls vanish, and I can either take assignment on the puts or roll them.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I sold 6 ATM CCs last week at 162.50 on the 600 shares I got assigned
However I am long on 100x 110Jan2025 Leaps and sold 30 ITM Puts at 300 for June2026. I hurt and am happy at the same time

Those 6 ATM short calls represent only 600 shares, the 100 leaps a whopping 10.000 shares and the 30 puts another 3.000 shares. Aren't you up something like 200k today? I wouldn't mind that kind of hurt

 

[elasalle]

trying my luck .. 3 STO 195 PUTS for this Fri .. $8.80
Already made like $10 with these 3(on 3 trades since last Thurs), so assignment is OK. breakeven will be $176.5.