note that I dont know well get to this point just like I didnt know we would see 188. If we do, this will be how I will call the top. Tomorrow, I dont have any plan yet.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
K, thanks.
Seems like simply buying calls was the play this morning, sometimes I get stuck focusing on selling calls/puts that I forget the old vanilla saw: buying calls and scaling out near top of run. But that’s also not the theme of “Being the House.”
I'd love to figure out a way to do a second order analysis of IV and price delta to show independent sentiment data. One can see a pattern here in how discussions move and there seems to be a correlation that can be safely tapped. It was clear something was happening on Monday that signaled an opportunity, but reading it was beyond me.Seems like simply buying calls was the play this morning, sometimes I get stuck focusing on selling calls/puts that I forget the old vanilla saw: buying calls and scaling out near top of run. But that’s also not the theme of “Being the House.”
Taking advantage of low IV to buy rather than sell is almost like being the house. You just have to guess the direction right...
I was in surgery today after selling my 192.5 and 195CCs for Friday.
On a separate note, I wish I had rolled my 170CCs for next week to end of June 180 yesterday when I had the chance. Now it's a debit, just like rolling them to Jan 2025 240 strike is now a debit. I'm hoping for a little pullback tomorrow....
On a separate note, I wish I had rolled my 170CCs for next week to end of June 180 yesterday when I had the chance. Now it's a debit, just like rolling them to Jan 2025 240 strike is now a debit. I'm hoping for a little pullback tomorrow....
Because Musk didn't care about the TSLA SP until his compensation package came back into play, and Q1 earnings were put under hs nose. From several earnings calls where the fundamentals were OK, but everything was doom and gloom, to garbage fundamentals, random layoffs, delayed/cancelled products, and Musk is all positive
Maybe I'm just cynical, but that the way I read the situation
One can argue that his compensation package were in play since 2018 and all the way till 5 years post award. Also sp jumped when earnings came out, not after Elon's call.
Yes, but he hit all the targets for that package in 2021 and then took his eye off the ball, even harming investors along the way with his recklessnes
And maybe the earnings weren't as bad a feared, some were even talking a loss for Q1, but it was all pump, pump, pump on the earnings and since
And now we have the ugly spectacle of the Tesla BoD out on parade and pulling out all the stops for Elon, even spending advertising revenue on it - where were they when Elon was selling his shares and Tweeting garbage?
Tesla governance is a mess, spin it all you want
I used to disagree with this simply because of a lack of evidence, but after seeing where they've placed their priorities in the last couple of weeks, I'm changing side.
The pandemic allowed many companies to hit insane growth due to that particular white swan events. Tesla was no different as they price gouged during chip shortages and insane gas prices. Many companies who saw such one hit wonders from the pandemic hysteria have reverted back to the mean, while Tesla have not fully retreated back due to Elon's pivot to FSD and Robotics.
I mean just look at all the windfall companies like Pelaton, Fiverr, Teledoc, Etsy, zoom, etc etc that saw insane growth during the pandemic and now struggling.
I don't necessarily see Musk hitting all of his targets as they were not sustained until sometimes in the future when we see a new phase of growth. The stock reflects this and his selling of shares burned investors in the short term but we would end up exactly at this price regardless.
Update: Well, life got in the way yesterday as I had to tend to some family things, so was away from my desk the last 3 hours of the day.. ugh! TSLA did reach $187 daily supply, but I missed that opportunity to sell CC’s into that supply.. With some profit taking underway, I decided to salvage some premium — At the open this morning I sold $192.5 -CC’s for $0.55 in premium
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Guess we are now shorting it.....that put spread look mighty tasty....
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
The irony is BOD didnt spend money advertising for Cars but willing to spend to payout Billions
Spin it all they want but soon when poop hit the walls.....the only things that matters is the ERs and $...
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
All those are companies whose products would see vastly higher usage during a pandemic lockdown.
Teslas revenue is from vehicles- which are primarily used outside the home.
Your comparison there makes no sense at all.
All the other major tech companies (apple, microsoft, meta, amd, nvidia, etc...) have seen massive runups in the period you describe, have made new ATHs after the pandemic lockdowns, and have not gone backward to less than 50% ATHs... heck even Toyota which has near 0 EV strategy, made ATHs this year well after the pandemic.
That put spread is simply a risk : reward play for the chance of yesterday was a false breakout and a sharp drop to follow. The real play is to avoid standing in the way of TSLA going parabolic by selling calls. In other words, I'm buying a $40 put spreads to earn $460 instead of selling $460 worth of call to earn $460. I really dont see a middle ground here for the stock. It is PRIME for a large drop, unless someone knows something and I intent to find out what that something is before committing heavily to selling calls.
I have provided evidence WHY Tesla had a windfall and it came from gas prices hitting ATH due to the Ukraine war while there's a world wide chip shortage, causing a shortage of auto supply, and mass migration of people moving from cities to suburbs due to the pandemic. You know who else saw the windfall that have now reverted back to the mean? Car dealerships.
So if you thought "if Elon tweeted less and worked harder, Tesla would sell 60k cars at a rate of 2.5M a year", I have a bridge to sell you. No auto company in the world have gathered that much demand at that ASP. In fact the numbers are 1/5 of that with said ASP.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Toyota is at ATHs this year
If Elon tweeted less and worked harder* at Tesla we'd already have the 25k car in production and they'd sell significantly more than 2.5M is my thought. But simply make it "tweeted less polarizing stuff" and we'd at least not be at significant risk of declining sales this year as we had in Q1.
*and wasn't constantly convinced RTs WILL BE FULLY READY ANY SECOND AND EVERY ONE WILL REPLACE 5-10 NORMAL CARS after being wrong year after year
Similar threads
