@tivoboy - is that you?
What the tweet doesn’t say is that together with the 2.5 million comes a visit from the SEC
![Grinning squinting face :laughing: 😆](https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f606.png)
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
@tivoboy - is that you?
triangles can't form in 2nd waves.
I was ready to make a similar trade after yesterday's close, but this morning got a little hectic and I forgot. I was looking at $11 calls for 7/5 IIRC. The opportunity was the cost cutting efforts that Rivian had completed. I wouldn't be at $2.5 million with the bet though...What the tweet doesn’t say is that together with the 2.5 million comes a visit from the SEC![]()
Seems clear to me at least, that Wall St is setting up Tesla for a decent beat.
NVDA 2 gaps filled on the way down, 1 left to go3 unfilled gaps to 106
hopefully that’s it![]()
There has indeed been a bit of a wave, in those countries we can see at least, but you need to be comparing Tesla to Tesla, not the other manufacturers, this is more representativeSeems clear to me at least, that Wall St is setting up Tesla for a decent beat.
Because otherwise, not sure how anyone is dropping delivery estimates while ignoring what's been happening in Europe for the past 2-3 weeks. The wave is back with a vengeance.
This doesn't even include Italy which is hitting daily totals of 400-500/cars a day and places like Czech Republic which also just hit records. China just hit 17,500 last week. Meanwhile in the US, there's little to no discounts on inventory on the Y which is a first for the past 4 quarters. Just a one or two that have $500 off
The recently announced tariffs on Chinese vehicles in Europe could actually causing a spike in non-daily reporting European countries as well. I'm personally projecting the number to come in around 425-430k.
The Tesla to Tesla comparison doesn't change anything about what I'm saying though. With the rate of the wave this quarter, that -9% gap between Q1 will be closed in the next few days. And again, it still doesn't take into account other daily reporting countries like Italy that literally added their entire Q1 total in the matter o 30 days and still going. Italy is going to 3-4X its Q1 numbers.There has indeed been a bit of a wave, in those countries we can see at least, but you need to be comparing Tesla to Tesla, not the other manufacturers, this is more representative
Currently roughly -9% vs 24Q1 and -15% vs 23Q2, so likely China will bridge the Q1 difference, will all depend on US and row, 420k would be good, maybe they get there
But then will need huge Q3&4 to beat 2023, which I find extremely improbable
View attachment 1059915
This simply gives VW first dip on RIVN's assets with the delayed / impending bankruptcy.RIVN make great Cars, just their scaling and costs suck compare to TSLA.
Those Trucks are nice..... and are in hi-def vs polygonal.
Musk told us on Q1ER that 2024 would see delivery growth over 2024, this was a pure stock pump IMO and now it seems everyone has forgotten about itThe Tesla to Tesla comparison doesn't change anything about what I'm saying though. With the rate of the wave this quarter, that -9% gap between Q1 will be closed in the next few days. And again, it still doesn't take into account other daily reporting countries like Italy that literally added their entire Q1 total in the matter o 30 days and still going. Italy is going to 3-4X its Q1 numbers.
As for the rest of your post, we have disagreed often about what's important to TSLA for the rest of this year. I don't think Wall St cares about 2024, they've written it off. As long as Tesla's sales and thus margins/earnings don't completely collapse further. I actually think Wall St will look favorably on a TSLA for the rest of the year even if there's no growth in revenue or slightly down.
Why? Because it seems to me Tesla of focusing on margins/profits now instead of delivery numbers. If they can show margin stability and expansion by keeping ASP steady and realizing COGS reductions, they can increase earnings even if delivery numbers for Q3/Q4 are slightly below 2023.
Yeah I very much agree and it's what I like about this thread verses the other.Musk told us on Q1ER that 2024 would see delivery growth over 2024, this was a pure stock pump IMO and now it seems everyone has forgotten about it
As for Q2 deliveries - the biggest European markets, France, Germany and UK are not yet visible, so too early to count any chickens IMO
Don't forget this is the trading thread, not the HODL, we're not breathing hopium and cheerleading the stock 24/7, we need to be critical and grounded
Interesting perspectiveYeah I very much agree and it's what I like about this thread verses the other.
Part of the reason my view is TSLA and how it trades for the rest of 2024 is grounded in the fact that I think Wall St wants to trade TSLA. But that they ideally want a much bigger trading range than 140-190. They want at least something like 150-250 to trade/play.
And I think the current dynamic amongst Tesla investors and traders today is that Tesla investors and institutional investors who are still holding, who held after terrible Q1 numbers, are in it for the next phase of Tesla. They've written off 2024. So they will act as support levels for the stock in the 150 to today's 190 share range.
For traders and hedgies, I don't think they would be happy at all with just a 150-190 trading range and since there's clear support at the lower level of that range, their options are to latch onto any good news and ride a rally up to the mid 200's or even higher...only to cash out and then re-position themselves to ride a correct back down to the 180-200 range before re-positioning again for a further rally higher in 2025.
So my entire thesis for how TSLA trades this year is based around Wall St trading, not HODL.