Semi General Discussion

[MP3Mike]

While some local Tesla technicians would take care of the charging and machanic work, like replacing tires.

How often do you think they are going to be replacing tires? Even if they drove back-and-forth continuously on that route, which isn't possible, they would likely only need to replace the tires once, or maybe twice, a year. They would just schedule a tire change at any normal semi tire shop. (Or even one of the Tesla Service Centers that are equipped to handle Tesla Semis.) Tesla isn't likely to put a full blown Tesla Semi service center every ~400 miles along that route. (Or maybe they will put one in each major city along that route.)

More likely for fleets that they will have one "extra" truck available to rotate in when one needs to be taken out of service for maintenance. (Brakes, tires, etc.)

 

[Watts_Up]

In fact, it is not uncommon to have to replace tires on tractors or trailers.
Also it might not be easy to keep track of a trailer's tire mileage.

If you remember, at the time of the presentation, the Semi were using
the Michelin super single tire instead of the dual tires combination.

In fact, the super single are more efficient than the conventionalduals, but I assume
that Tesla finaly opted them out maybe because there was some issues with them?

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Super singles vs. duals: which tires are best?

Kal Tire representative Colin Rafferty said super singles were designed for Interstate highways. ​

They originally enjoyed a four percent fuel savings over conventional tires due to less rolling resistance. ​

Because of improvements in conventional dual tires, that margin has narrowed to about one percent, but the higher price remains.​

​

“Super singles shave off about 200 pounds per axle. ​

You have one rim instead of two, two sidewalls instead of four,” said Rafferty. ​

“If you’re a bulk carrier hauling concentrated amounts of weight, super singles give you an advantage. ​

That’s where that 200-pound saving per axle starts to pay off.​

​

 

[Nack]

More likely for fleets that they will have one "extra" truck available to rotate in when one needs to be taken out of service for maintenance. (Brakes, tires, etc.)

A lot of bigger fleets have “extra” floaters for this reason. Not everyone has them and the numbers are minimal for obvious reasons but they can’t miss a delivery for being down or they can lose a customer. Just confirming this is not a crazy thought!

In fact, it is not uncommon to have to replace tires on tractors or trailers.
Also it might not be easy to keep track of a trailer's tire mileage.

If you remember, at the time of the presentation, the Semi were using
the Michelin super single tire instead of the dual tires combination.

In fact, the super single are more efficient than the conventionalduals, but I assume
that Tesla finaly opted them out maybe because there was some issues with them?

Super singles were the next big thing about 10 years ago because they are lighter and can help improve fuel efficiency. They are still used for customers that have weight critical applications and saving those extra pounds allows for more cargo.

The downside to the super singles is if one goes flat you basically are done/stranded. For many this is a deal breaker as its much less likely with the dual tires as you may still have one tire to carry some load to get the truck to a place thats good/safe to service it.

Basically the benefit is not worth the risks for many and so they fell out of favor for a lot of companies.

 

[Nack]

I think the numbers are so low its Tesla/PepsiCo/Martin Bower are most likely the only customers. If anyone else was using them too Im sure it would be in the news, however, I clearly have no idea how many have been sold and to who.

IMO this is the typical Tesla game where they claim to do big things, but they do not provide details as there is none to provide.

I saw this today which is related to the statement above

Tesla Semi in short supply for PepsiCo; other customers use competing EV trucks — Autoblog

NEW YORK — Key Tesla customer PepsiCo made initial payments for 100 Tesla Semis in 2017, intending to use the electric-truck fleet to haul its Cheetos, Lays potato chips and Pepsi soda pop to retailers. But according to the food-and-drinks maker and one of its executives with knowledge of the...

apple.news

 

[anthonyj]

Let's be honest. Semi will never be produced in quantity. That's all.

 

[SmartElectric]

Let's be honest. Semi will never be produced in quantity. That's all.

Tesla is literally building a factory in Nevada to do so ... seems like cognitive dissonance to ignore that fact.
I agree Tesla missed deadlines by years and years, but Cybertruck at 1000 per week run rate is a real thing, no reason to expect less of Semi as Tesla negotiates battery supply necessary for mass production.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Tesla is literally building a factory in Nevada to do so ... seems like cognitive dissonance to ignore that fact.
I agree Tesla missed deadlines by years and years, but Cybertruck at 1000 per week run rate is a real thing, no reason to expect less of Semi as Tesla negotiates battery supply necessary for mass production.

can you imagine Semi at 1000 per week?
it would be *glorious*.

 

[DarkandStormy]

can you imagine Semi at 1000 per week?
it would be *glorious*.

That was what was supposed to happen this year.

 

[aubreymcfato]

That was what was supposed to happen this year.

I know. What can I say, I am bummed but I've not lost all hope on the Semi. The surely go much slower than anticipated, even at 100 per week I'd be happy.
But this what they said in the call:

So, we're finalizing the engineering of semi to enable like a super cost-effective high-volume production with our learnings from our fleet and our pilot fleet and Pepsi fleet, which we are expanding this year marginally. In parallel, as we showed in the shareholders' deck, we have started construction on the factory in Reno. Our first vehicles are planned for late 2021 (they probably mean 2025) with external customers starting in 2026.

 

[Nack]

Let's be honest. Semi will never be produced in quantity. That's all.

I hope it will be produced in quantity, but I am very doubtful it will ever be a meaningful quantity. I will be glad to be wrong though as this fills a need for electric semis and it can handle the on road regional stuff so the other OEMs can focus on the vocational, etc. Competition is good to drive innovation but now no one takes Tesla seriously in this space.

Tesla is literally building a factory in Nevada to do so ... seems like cognitive dissonance to ignore that fact.
I agree Tesla missed deadlines by years and years, but Cybertruck at 1000 per week run rate is a real thing, no reason to expect less of Semi as Tesla negotiates battery supply necessary for mass production.

Keep in mind building a semi is significantly different than a car (or passenger truck). everything is much bigger and much heavier, so the pace is slower and the facility much larger.

Again, maybe they will blow people away with innovation and that would be awesome, but its looking unlikely.

 

[Suns_PSD]

EV Semi's aren't selling, really hardly at all. even where they are legislated to sell them in CA.

This might change of course but that's the situation now.

If Elon produced 1000 Tesla Semis/ week, he'd have 999 of them unsold every week based on actual industry numbers that I'm aware of, assuming he was getting about half of the market share.

Ultimately, EV Semis are effing stupid, but since legislators are going that way, the diesel manufacturers have a large advantage in that they can subsidize the EV sales so that they can have the allotments to sell the actually profitable diesel semis. Since semi-trucks are now state specific when ordered to each state, they can just add $ to the price of the diesels for CARB states and buy down the overpriced EV Semis they are required to deliver. I just don't see how Tesla could ever compete with that.

The even funnier part is that CA doesn't even remotely have the electrical capacity to charge these things but whatever. I'm sure they will just crank up taxes more on the CA middle class to pay for that too.

 

[Nack]

The sales of EV semis are picking up, mostly due to fleets wanting to be in compliance with CARBs ACT and ACF regulations (minimum percent sales of EV heavy duty and required purchases of EVs for fleets of larger sizes). States in many costal areas and CO have these in place too.

Most fleets are dipping their toes in the water and buying a few trucks to learn to to utilize them and what routes they work for before larger scale adoption which makes sense.

The biggest issue (besides overall grid capacity) is just being able to install the chargers. Many fleets want EVs to comply with regs or just to check them out but the local utility says they cannot support chargers capacity wise or they have a huge backlog (1-2yrs) to install the line for the charger. Sometimes if the grid has capacity and the utility can install the line, the local grid needs to install equipment that is not available (like transformers) so the whole thing falls apart.

I think many people are starting to realize the obvious that heavy duty vehicles and light duty vehicles are totally different ballgames!

The EV heavy duty (including class 5-6 box trucks) drive really nice and they work well for local applications. They have their place, but its definitely not long haul (Tesla semi is NOT for long haul). Drayage, regional and local delivery box trucks can work well now as long as there is a place to charge them.

I am heavily skeptical that long haul will ever make sense for EV. Sure it could work with lots of stops, but the key to long haul is stopping as little as possible. Electrified transport with a range extender or hybrid is the most likely option there!!!

 

[SmartElectric]

Ontario Canada has gigawatts of surplus Nuclear power we export to NY state at a loss (2c/kWh) overnight.
Ontario doesn't make it's own oil, gas or other liquid fuels.
Ontario has specific routes and highly concentrated population centers.
Heavy duty EV fleet charged overnight daily would make perfect sense here.

California can put the blinders on with the challenges that state has, don't paint the rest of North America with the same brush.

 

[SmartElectric]

can you imagine Semi at 1000 per week?

Yes, but my 1000 per week Cybertruck note was specifically to counter the "it can't be done" narrative.

1000 semi would require the same battery capacity as 13000 Model 3 per week, >600,000 Model 3 equivalent battery packs per year, ie, the entire production capacity of a Gigafactory ... so, no, I don't imagine that in the short term.

What I can imagine is : the Nevada battery factory will eventually be supplanted by production elsewhere (Texas 4680 and imports from Korea/China) as low prices and stalling plans of the major OEM's (GM, Ford) that are disrupting the market right now. This will free up Nevada capacity for semi if that makes sense financially for Tesla.

Tesla could set up a finance package for the Semi where the cost is neutral compared to diesel, but the company purchasing this way can achieve carbon reduction goals promised to shareholders and regulators (Pepsi, Wallmart, etc). Fuel is the major cost. But the big change will be lowering the cost of the driver, as an EV heavy duty vehicle can be made to be far more cost effective to train a new driver given advancements in software and control systems.

 

[MP3Mike]

1000 semi would require the same battery capacity as 13000 Model 3 per week, >600,000 Model 3 equivalent battery packs per year, ie, the entire production capacity of a Gigafactory ... so, no, I don't imagine that in the short term.

It wouldn't require that much battery capacity if they started with mostly the shorter range variant.

 

[ThomasD]

Will Musk honor his guarantee of seven cents per KWh of charging on the Tesla Semi and a guarantee that the Truck won't break down for a million miles?
If I purchase a Tesla and have it for 15 years and it breaks down at year 15 with 700,000 thousand miles will Tesla fix it for free? There is no mention of how many years that guarantee is.

 

[Nack]

To give an idea of mileage accumulation, current manufacturer self test engines are pulled from the field and tested to ensure it still detects failed parts and detects them before emission limits are exceeded.

The mileage is 435k miles after 3 years.

Just to give an idea how fast an over the road truck accumulates mileage.