Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Causalien]

Not sure about you but i'm getting married on Thursday so pre-announcing great earnings would be amazing for me.
Or just have amazing earnings on august 7th and maybe i'll extend my honeymoon or stop worrying about spending so much money on a damn couch.
NYC living is way too expensive.

If memory serves correctly, my life events happen in tandem. I'd be living through some bad event when the stock would plunge by 20% and I'd come online to look for something to cheer me up only to be greeted by a falling stock. I'd get too pissed off and execute some amazing save in my life, only to come back to a stock that has recovered.

So I am either always too pissed/busy to buy during a dip or I already missed the rally when I am actually happy to buy.

 

[GlennAlanBerry]

More high quality EV models from more manufacturers is a good thing. It will help speed the build out of the charging infrastructure, and it increases awareness of EVs among the general public. Not to mention that having some viable competition as time goes on is good for Tesla in the long-term. I think it is way too early to simply dismiss the BMW i3 until there have been some reputable road tests, and it is actually available for sale.

 

[kevin99]

A great byproduct of this launch of the i3 is the increased Tesla coverage. Comparisons (stupid ones at that) will be drawn and will be free press.

Exactly. I was watching the Bloomberg videos on yahoo finance. The title is BMW I3, however 80% of time are on the only two teslas in London. Hahaha...

 

[kevin99]

Just a qk note. I've built up my position on Kndi. I think it is going to have a good ride, both on their own merit and with tesla's exposure in china, auto expo and store opening in Beijing. The last two days Kndi seems on a break out pattern and my large position is turning from red to green all of sudden!

 

[Julian Cox]

BMW i3 serves as a reminder that one should never underestimate the power of denial.

The marketing campaign for this car has conspicuously including tracking Tesla around the Internet with Google Ad Words. (Note that Audi's attempt to score points from Tesla with a product placement in Iron Man III resulted in a program cancellation on the grounds that its overpriced and under performing car had no hope of competing with the Model S).

Meanwhile the Model S is wiping out sales of BMW 7 Series wherever Tesla sales begin to take hold, a $40K electric Mini will not alter that equation one little bit. Note that if BMW had used their Mini brand for the purpose they would have had better luck than they will have with this.

Price Point permitting, the Mercedes B Class Electric Drive with a Tesla Drive Train can be expected to decimate BMW's hopes of i3 sales across 2014, because the Merc B is a real car with halo-effect EV credentials.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Merc B is technically capable of using Tesla's superchargers and may well be permitted to do so by agreement with Tesla.

A $35K Gen III Tesla, will naturally consign the $40K BMW i3 to a museum piece.

 

[kevin99]

BMW i3 serves as a reminder that one should never underestimate the power of denial.

The marketing campaign for this car has conspicuously including tracking Tesla around the Internet with Google Ad Words. (Note that Audi's attempt to score points from Tesla with a product placement in Iron Man III resulted in a program cancellation on the grounds that its overpriced and under performing car had no hope of competing with the Model S).

Meanwhile the Model S is wiping out sales of BMW 7 Series wherever Tesla sales begin to take hold, a $40K electric Mini will not alter that equation one little bit. Note that if BMW had used their Mini brand for the purpose they would have had better luck than they will have with this.

Price Point permitting, the Mercedes B Class Electric Drive with a Tesla Drive Train can be expected to decimate BMW's hopes of i3 sales across 2014, because the Merc B is a real car with halo-effect EV credentials.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Merc B is technically capable of using Tesla's superchargers and may well be permitted to do so by agreement with Tesla.

A $35K Gen III Tesla, will naturally consign the $40K BMW i3 to a museum piece.

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Nicely put, Julian. I can't help laughing when reading how bullish BMW expects the i3 sales. This looks like a mega flop in the making.

Interesting point about the Merc B class able to use the supercharger, that will be truly awesome and once again demonstrated tesla and Elon 's forward and future proof thinking. I think you have a thesis on that point somewhere, right?

 

[FredTMC]

Getting damn close to taking out all time high. I think it'll happen today.

 

[xhawk101]

Just a qk note. I've built up my position on Kndi. I think it is going to have a good ride, both on their own merit and with tesla's exposure in china, auto expo and store opening in Beijing. The last two days Kndi seems on a break out pattern and my large position is turning from red to green all of sudden!

Ditto and agree

 

[DSJ]

Just a qk note. I've built up my position on Kndi. I think it is going to have a good ride, both on their own merit and with tesla's exposure in china, auto expo and store opening in Beijing. The last two days Kndi seems on a break out pattern and my large position is turning from red to green all of sudden!

What's your feeling on KNDI. I've been tracking it for a month or so but I'm not sure if I should get in or not. Don't really know enough about it, but I'm glued to it to say the least.

 

[Convert2013]

Nicely put, Julian. I can't help laughing when reading how bullish BMW expects the i3 sales. This looks like a mega flop in the making.

Interesting point about the Merc B class able to use the supercharger, that will be truly awesome and once again demonstrated tesla and Elon 's forward and future proof thinking. I think you have a thesis on that point somewhere, right?

+ 1

BMW i3. Another under-performing, cartoon-like EV from the majors. I think Elon should unveil the Gen 3 on Aug 7th so we can all have a good laugh at BMW and watch our portfolios rocket.

 

[Julian Cox]

I would actually be a bit concerned about KNDI. There has been a concerted effort by its stock promoters to link its fortunes with TSLA, but in reality there is no such link.

It goes without saying that KNDI fundamentals are not the justification for investment. The trouble is that KNDI story does not look solid to me on its own merits either.
The technology is absolutely generic (zero moat) and the guidance is all over the place with respect to actuals. As far as I can tell KNDI is a concentrator of risk amongst an otherwise favorable trend and if I had profits in it I would be highly tempted to take them.

It may be that all of the above is swept aside by a general upward trend in Chinese EV demand, but there is no identifiable trend within KNDI itself to merit this stock as an investment vehicle to address that trend. For a trend investment I would look a bit higher up the food chain - for example KNDI's battery supplier.

Due diligence as always, but I expect this perspective is helpful.

Page and a half of generic Chinese electric micro-cars on Alibaba (including Kandi) Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

 

[Clprenz]

I have decided to sell off a little bit today, because tomorrow is a tuesday and I can buy tomorrow for cheaper haha But I actually will....

 

[deonb]

I have decided to sell off a little bit today, because tomorrow is a tuesday and I can buy tomorrow for cheaper haha But I actually will....

Buy puts and sell those instead tomorrow... that way you won't lose your position if there is a DB like overnight action again.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Many good quotes from the DB report. While I don't agree with everything I really think they "get it." For example, they actually recognize that TSLA probably pays half the cost per kwh as compared to other auto manufactures and we all know that could possibly be the high end. I would spout of some more quotes but it's probably better if you just read it.

I recently came across some market data that can get you to $300+/kWh if you assume that Tesla is using the Panasonic 3400mAh cells. However, the same data points to the cost of using the 3100mAh cells as less than ~$250/kWh. Both numbers assume no discounts for cell design or volume.

It seems far more likely that Tesla is using the 3100 cells that were available during Model S development as opposed to the 3400 cells that went into production at the same time as the Model S, but if they did use the 3400 cells then the DB estimate is just at the far upper end of the likely range rather than patently absurd.

 

[fjm9898]

I guess the stock found its next resistance level.

CO, Maybe the 3400cell is the rumored 110 version of the car?

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I guess the stock found its next resistance level.

CO, Maybe the 3400cell is the rumored 110 version of the car?

I dunno about that. A straight replacement of 3100 cells would get you to ~100kWh, so to go farther you need to find extra space in the pack, which probably doesn't exist.

Personally, I expect to see packs based on the 3400 cell when the Model X comes out. Otherwise I don't see how you get the performance and range to be "similar" to what we see with the current Model S. And the late 2014 timeframe is necessary both from a development standpoint, as well as giving the time needed for the price per kWh of the 3400 cells to fall to where the 3100 cells are now.

At that point I'd expect 100 and 70kWh packs to become the new norm for both models until the new chemistries debut with Gen III.

 

[Norbert]

Breaking the 52-week high with 133.55 ....

 

[Curt Renz]

Buy puts and sell those instead tomorrow... that way you won't lose your position if there is a DB like overnight action again.

Indeed, that's the way to avoid the large income tax hit on capital gains realized after less than one year.

 

[DaveT]

I dunno about that. A straight replacement of 3100 cells would get you to ~100kWh, so to go farther you need to find extra space in the pack, which probably doesn't exist.

Personally, I expect to see packs based on the 3400 cell when the Model X comes out. Otherwise I don't see how you get the performance and range to be "similar" to what we see with the current Model S. And the late 2014 timeframe is necessary both from a development standpoint, as well as giving the time needed for the price per kWh of the 3400 cells to fall to where the 3100 cells are now.

At that point I'd expect 100 and 70kWh packs to become the new norm for both models until the new chemistries debut with Gen III.

Completely agree. 3400 cells will be used in the Model X and will allow it to achieve a range comparable to today's Model S configs.

100 and 70kWh packs make sense as well.

- - - Updated - - -

New article by Dana Hull (SJ Mercury News) on Tesla & the China market,
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_23737866/tesla-goes-china

 

[AudubonB]

Deonb - your analysis of what makes TSLA rise and fall ought be saved in a special thread reserved for All Time Great posts.....