Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[deonb]

You're making me feel like I should take August 8th off from work...

You'll know on the evening of August 7th whether it would be worth it. But this might not be the trigger - it could need some more time. But if you see a printing on Wednesday night that starts with a 2, then yes, take the day off

Keep in mind it can also similarly resolve by a huge drop in the price as well.

 

[sleepyhead]

The Buffett scenario is not going to happen, because you cannot silently amass a 35% position in a company. Every time your position changes by 5% ownership, you have to file a notification with the SEC and it becomes public knowledge.

So if you own 9% of a company and buy another 1% to get over 10% you file paperwork with SEC. If you buy another 4% to get to 14%, you don't have to file paperwork. If you cross 15%, again you have to file paperwork.

But a massive short squeeze can still happen, because you have more than 100% institutional ownership combined with 25% short interest and that is enough. Facebook had only like 2% (vs. Tesla around 15%) of total shares outstanding shorted (don't know public float on that one) and that was enough for the stock to go up 50% in a week. With Tesla you might get 50% revaluation (like Facebook) and then another 50% from short squeeze.

 

[DaveT]

The Buffett scenario is not going to happen, because you cannot silently amass a 35% position in a company. Every time your position changes by 5% ownership, you have to file a notification with the SEC and it becomes public knowledge.

You're right. I think you've got up to 10 days to file the Schedule 13D/G though, so you'd have to do you secret purchasing w/in a 10 day period, and then file w/the SEC.
Schedule 13D - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Thumper]

How about 10 different holding companies. You could stay just below the reporting threashold with each.

 

[deonb]

How about 10 different holding companies. You could stay just below the reporting threashold with each.

You think Buffet hired Andy Fastow as his CFO?

 

[austinEV]

You're making me feel like I should take August 8th off from work...

I am taking half of Wed, and all of Thu and Friday off. I told my wife to bring me food and water and i guarantee we will be up for the year (code for we could lose our shiny new green numbers very quickly).

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I am taking half of Wed, and all of Thu and Friday off. I told my wife to bring me food and water and i guarantee we will be up for the year (code for we could lose our shiny new green numbers very quickly).

Nice! I'm going to be on the road Wednesday evening and most of Thursday...If only I had a Model S 17 inch screen to watch the stock...Though only while I'm not driving, of course It figures I'm probably going to get Model S on the 12th.

 

[Twiddler]

Nice! I'm going to be on the road Wednesday evening and most of Thursday...If only I had a Model S 17 inch screen to watch the stock...Though only while I'm not driving, of course It figures I'm probably going to get Model S on the 12th.

Funny you should say that - I have the CNBC site chronically pulled up in the upper half of my screen during the week with TSLA entered in. It actually does an excellent job at giving real-time quotes, updating about every 10-20 seconds and fully reloading the page automatically every couple of minutes. My Tesla grin has been amplified more than a few times because of this

 

[Causalien]

Heh,

I will be on a transatlantic flight that day. TSLA please don't give me a heart attack when I land.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Heh,

I will be on a transatlantic flight that day. TSLA please don't give me a heart attack when I land.

Looks like you might have to buy the in flight wi-fi

 

[toastypasta]

I will be in the middle of the dessert in Chile.
Going to be awesome.

 

[deonb]

Excellent info/analysis....So you long on Tesla? Prediction on what happens August 7th? Thanks

Long and semi-short.

TSLA long and a few hundred contracts split over 11 long call strikes (125, 135, 140, 142, 145, 150, 155, 160, 165, 190, 200), 4 long put strikes (70, 100, 120, 125), and 1 short put strike (115), acquired at various points in the last 2 months. Expirations of August 9th, August 17th and September 21.

Given the above spread, my break-even points (sans premium) are >$155 (12% up) or <$99 (30% down). Max pain is @ $125.

Additional money on the side to either acquire more calls or puts the morning of earnings. Haven't decided which yet. Whichever "feels" cheaper at the time. Who knows, maybe I can pick up some $140 August 9 puts on Wednesday morning for $1 .

I do not intent to sell anything before ER. I fully expect and are prepared to lose it all - this is not meant as an investment. Besides, uncle Sam is paying for 35% of all losses this year .


Prediction August 7th we trade somewhere between $140 and $150. I think you meant to ask August 8th though...

Now that is the million dollar question. Literally.

 

[twinklejet]

With so many of us expecting it to go up... If Tesla misses the forecast, however unlikely it may seem, wouldn't that crash the price very very very very hard?

 

[CyberDutchie]

With so many of us expecting it to go up... If Tesla misses the forecast, however unlikely it may seem, wouldn't that crash the price very very very very hard?

In my opinion, it's just a Q2 earnings report, if a miss, it's not that significant. Elon has stated this year will be to perfect production, expand to oversees, and improve margins. It's not the year of high volume growth yet.

 

[kevin99]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements

Tesla Nabs 8% of the U.S. Luxury Car Market (TSLA)



Tesla Nabs 8% of the U.S. Luxury Car Market


A couple of questions: is there similar report for the first three quarter, I mean the percentage of of market share tesla took in just the first quarter?

Secondly, how they define luxury market? I don't think the BMW 3s are included, are they?

Though the title looks exciting, it seems old news to me.

 

[AlMc]

Long and semi-short.

TSLA long and a few hundred contracts split over 11 long call strikes (125, 135, 140, 142, 145, 150, 155, 160, 165, 190, 200), 4 long put strikes (70, 100, 120, 125), and 1 short put strike (115), acquired at various points in the last 2 months. Expirations of August 9th, August 17th and September 21.

Given the above spread, my break-even points (sans premium) are >$155 (12% up) or <$99 (30% down). Max pain is @ $125.

Additional money on the side to either acquire more calls or puts the morning of earnings. Haven't decided which yet. Whichever "feels" cheaper at the time. Who knows, maybe I can pick up some $140 August 9 puts on Wednesday morning for $1 .

I do not intent to sell anything before ER. I fully expect and are prepared to lose it all - this is not meant as an investment. Besides, uncle Sam is paying for 35% of all losses this year .


Prediction August 7th we trade somewhere between $140 and $150. I think you meant to ask August 8th though...

Now that is the million dollar question. Literally.

Thanks. Two additional questions from a neophyte in investing in a momentum stock (most of my holdings are in what used to be called 'blue chip' :wink

1. Is there a way to find out which mutual funds hold Tesla and what % of their assets are invested in TSLA? I know Contrafund...

2. What do you think will happen on the 8th? Best Guess....

Thanks Al

 

[deonb]

Thanks. Two additional questions from a neophyte in investing in a momentum stock (most of my holdings are in what used to be called 'blue chip' :wink

1. Is there a way to find out which mutual funds hold Tesla and what % of their assets are invested in TSLA? I know Contrafund...

2. What do you think will happen on the 8th? Best Guess....

Thanks Al

1) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=TSLA+Major+Holders
Look under 'Top Mutual Fund Holders'.

2) I'm not going to directly answer that, but obviously my personal position will be hurt if TSLA trades at less than $155 after earnings (unless it's less than $99 as well). So you can read something into that if you want.

 

[kevin99]

2) I'm not going to directly answer that, but obviously my personal position will be hurt if TSLA trades at less than $155 after earnings (unless it's less than $99 as well). So you can read something into that if you want.

What probability do you think these two cases will happens? Also by what time frame? You indicated option play so the time consideration is a key factor.

 

[MilosK]

Hi everyone, I've been following Tesla intently since 2004 – 5 and tried to join TMC when it first started back in Aug.06, but due to repeated script errors and no webmaster link couldn't. Been content to lurk ever since.


Also been telling everyone to buy Tesla shares-to-come since 08: never had a moments doubt that they would succeed - eventually (though that 2 speed drivetrain was a little edgy for a while!).


On March 29th, read a great article in either SA or MF saying why buying April (or May?) 35"s at $3.10 when the stock was $38 was a win-win, no lose proposition. I would've put half my inheritance on that bet that day had it been liquid! 4 days later the stock finally broke $40 and those options were around $10-12! And we all know what happened from there.


After following them for almost 10 years, I was extremely frustrated not being able to get in on the action. Til now - finally got an options account opened a couple of weeks ago.


So I've got a little to play with for the upcoming ER. I'm brand-new to options trading but accept I could lose everything – though so far while learning my way around the software etc, I've gotten lucky and managed to guess the highs and lows the past several days with a 200% return


So I'd like to know what deonb thinks of the strategy he posted in the advanced options thread a week or 2 ago, in isolation - purely as a 2-day play. I was thinking along the same lines, but that was when the stick was at $120. Last week I was guessing a gradual upswell of about $2/day til the 8th. Any thoughts on that strategy around a $145 base? Also am thinking your guesses for the weeklies on Wed based on previous weeklies could be a bit optimistic as there is likely to be heavier than usual demand considering the date 'n all. Anyway my newbie strategy would be: 10% break even either way, 75-80% weighted on the upside, with a Wed buy in. Might buy some August 17 calls too, depending on the price.

I'm trying to plan a play for the earnings release. I expect a movement of at least 10% either way the day after, but betting mostly on the upside.


My intent is to create the setup a little while before close on the 7th, using August 10th options. I would like it so that on 10% downside, I'm dead even, and on the upside I have exponential potential.


Let's say I play with ~$10k.


And let's suppose next Wednesday before closing the stock price is at $120 (but this really works for any price). Using today's options prices and premiums and doubling it for buy, but keeping it the same for sell (expecting more volatility that week until the point of announcement, and then rapid dropoff after), I get:


Buy 40 x $108 puts at $0.65 each = $2600.
Buy 10 x $125 calls at $2.00 each = $2000.
Buy 50 x $130 calls at $0.70 each = $3500.
Buy 200 x $140 calls at $0.10 each = $2000.


A 10% drop to $108 will yield back the $10k
A 10% raise to $132 will yield about $25k


Of course any movement more than 10% is gravy. Repeat of Q1's 20% up will yield $125k. Repeat of yesterdays crash will yield $30k.


Of course the risk is the price will stay dead even at $120 and I'd have lost part or all of the initial $10k (ok with that).


Does anybody else have a better strategy than this that you care to share?

 

[erha]

I remember some time back we spent a lot of time figuring out how many shifts they were running. Now it seems like they are running two shifts of eight hours each, right? However, I thought the plan was to make 20k cars on one shift and then ramp up to 40k cars on two shifts if the demand stayed strong. What am I missing here? If they run two shifts today I can only assume that they are trying to ramp up to 800 per week and 40k a year (maybe even a little bit more) or that they will miss their margin goal. Hopefully we will get some answers the 7. or maybe somebody here can enlighten me