Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[kenliles]

I agree with Curt 100%. As I have said in the past, I think Elon has tripped up a bit in public relations more than once, and if I was advising him I would have worked harder to prevent it. Hiring key reinforcements like Doug Field from Apple to (hopefully) free up some of Elon's time and share the burden is so, so important. I would like to see more hires like this, and less off-the-cuff remarks by Elon that tread the line very closely to forward-looking statements about the performance of TSLA that could get him (and us, as shareholders) in trouble.

On the other hand - these fop-a events create the opportunities that some of us relish

 

[joefee]

What a wild morning….canceled orders….researched the 2nd fire news, my take:

As with the 1st fire, an ICE car would have burned to the ground and killed or seriously injured the driver/passengers. The Model S driver fled the scene (drunk?) without serious injury after “traveling at such a high speed that it smashed through a concrete wall and then hit a large tree." Tesla contacted the driver and he want’s another car as as possible see: Page 2 - Tesla Shares Drop on Report of Second Model S Fire - TheStreet

The bottom line …. Model S is the safest car in the world … orders back on!

 

[RobotGrease]

What is said by an executive after the end of a quarter is taken with greater meaning by market participants than what is said before. Preliminary figures that are available to executives after the end of a quarter can either change or affirm earlier opinions. Elon's affirmation of his earlier opinions carried greater weight after the quarter had ended.

The best general advice at any point in a quarter may be what I wrote in post #11351, which was for Elon to answer evaluation questions by saying, “The market appears to understand what our company intends to be accomplishing five years from now, and we are working very hard to justify that confidence.”

So given what Elon has been responding, what do you believe it tells us to expect? I can only imagine it is an attempt to calmly lower expectations for a non-blowout Q3 ER. People want to say he's trying to trap the shorts, but I dont think so. Lets remember that first and foremost he is unfiltered and says it like it is. When he was optimistic, he said so: "tsunami of hurt for the shorts". I would sooner believe his opinion of the near-term stock value and movement has changed rather than believe he has changed his nature and is strategically creating a bear-trap for Q3.

So I take his words at face value and expect a less than blowout Q3 ER. Curt: What do you take his recent comments to indicate?

Citizen-t: What's your take on this? Is Elon being genuine or playing the shorts?

 

[Citizen-T]

I've never seen Elon manipulate short sellers. He's been more than happy to warn them that they should exit their positions. On the other hand, I've always known Elon to speak exactly what is on his mind. IMO, he clearly thinks the stock is overvalued from a fundamental standpoint.

I'm ok with that for three reasons. First, I agree with him (been saying this since we were in the $190s). Second, whether or not the stock is overvalued doesn't tell you what direction the stock price is going to go. Right now it is oversold, whether over valued or not. Third, Elon has been wrong before, and so have I.

 

[RobotGrease]

I've never seen Elon manipulate short sellers. He's been more than happy to warn them that they should exit their positions. On the other hand, I've always known Elon to speak exactly what is on his mind. IMO, he clearly thinks the stock is overvalued from a fundamental standpoint.

I'm ok with that for three reasons. First, I agree with him (been saying this since we were in the $190s). Second, whether or not the stock is overvalued doesn't tell you what direction the stock price is going to go. Right now it is oversold, whether over valued or not. Third, Elon has been wrong before, and so have I.

I agree completely, I see we are on the same page. I am just curious as to what his recent comments might indicate about Q3 and what we should expect. Do you draw the same conclusions as I do, with regards to tempering expectations for Q3?

Thanks for your input!

 

[Citizen-T]

I agree completely, I see we are on the same page. I am just curious as to what his recent comments might indicate about Q3 and what we should expect. Do you draw the same conclusions as I do, with regards to tempering expectations for Q3?

Thanks for your input!

No, I don't think this tells us anything about Q3. I think that our expectations here got overblown. The market is not looking for 6600 cars to be delivered. The street high is 5500. Assuming our more refined estimates of 5900ish are accurate, market is still going to be surprised.

Edit: I should reiterate though that the more important part of earnings is guidance. We need to hear good guidance to move the stock.

 

[Jack6591]

I agree with Curt 100%. As I have said in the past, I think Elon has tripped up a bit in public relations more than once, and if I was advising him I would have worked harder to prevent it. Hiring key reinforcements like Doug Field from Apple to (hopefully) free up some of Elon's time and share the burden is so, so important. I would like to see more hires like this, and less off-the-cuff remarks by Elon that tread the line very closely to forward-looking statements about the performance of TSLA that could get him (and us, as shareholders) in trouble.

Whatever Elon says is over-parsed.

 

[sleepyhead]

No, I don't think this tells us anything about Q3. I think that our expectations here got overblown. The market is not looking for 6600 cars to be delivered. The street high is 5500. Assuming our more refined estimates of 5900ish are accurate, market is still going to be surprised.

Edit: I should reiterate though that the more important part of earnings is guidance. We need to hear good guidance to move the stock.

Yes, guidance is key.

The only thing that will matter on this earnings call is gross marging and guidance. Of course if they show a non-GAAP loss, then that will be a very important negative factor, but they won't.

 

[Curt Renz]

So I take his words at face value and expect a less than blowout Q3 ER. Curt: What do you take his recent comments to indicate?

Sorry, but I can't tell whether he was attempting to telegraph something or was simply repeating a pat answer. You'll have to ask Elon. :wink:

 

[tander]

I've never seen Elon manipulate short sellers. He's been more than happy to warn them that they should exit their positions. On the other hand, I've always known Elon to speak exactly what is on his mind. IMO, he clearly thinks the stock is overvalued from a fundamental standpoint.

I'm ok with that for three reasons. First, I agree with him (been saying this since we were in the $190s). Second, whether or not the stock is overvalued doesn't tell you what direction the stock price is going to go. Right now it is oversold, whether over valued or not. Third, Elon has been wrong before, and so have I.

Something that is important to remember is that Tesla is overvalued on a fundamental basis, it is a simple mathematical fact, it's not up for debate. If Musk didn't acknowledge that understanding then there would be something to worry about, and actually he would be just plain lying. So it's a good thing, you never want to hear a CEO or owner of a company over-hyping things, the market will decide for itself.

 

[FANGO]

A car just caught fire without crashing in Norway just now! http://mobil.bt.no/nyheter/lokalt/Bilbrann-pa-E39-i-Asane-2994627.html#.Um6b8aa9LCQ can someone call jalopnik? I bet Volvo-shares will go down today. Plus all ICE-cars should get recalled.

Even worse Norse, a tanker truck blew up, destroyed seven cars, injured two people and they had to shut down the freeway and it made a huge mess. So I suspect they'll be recalling all gasoline as well.

Tanker truck fire shuts down 710 Freeway in Commerce, severely burns driver

 

[Lessmog]

No, I don't think this tells us anything about Q3. I think that our expectations here got overblown. The market is not looking for 6600 cars to be delivered. The street high is 5500. Assuming our more refined estimates of 5900ish are accurate, market is still going to be surprised.

Edit: I should reiterate though that the more important part of earnings is guidance. We need to hear good guidance to move the stock.

Agree basically. But just as Mars is a mean mistress, Market is a fickle lover. It seems to me that the immediate future of TSLA depends to a large extent upon emotions for AAPL, TWIT (or whatever the symbol) etc. Not to mention the 3rd M, Media. If they run with omgbbq, 2 Tesla fires, instead of angling for the fact that on both occasions everybody got away unscathed to order themselves a new Tesla instead of dying a horrible death, and reminding everybody of the other 20,000 ICE car fires annually - well, our bacon's gonna be cooked for some time yet. Best stay long, slow food is supposed to be better. (Much better than my fingernails, waiting for next Tuesday.) ;-)

* I know, Moon is a harsh mistress in literature. Even more fictitious.

 

[justthateasy]

Its important that we close above ~$167 today. See uptrend and downtrend converging at Nov. 5th Q3 ER

So we're at a point that TSLA is looking like it won't be closing above $167 today, what do you think we'll be seeing in the next week leading to earnings?

 

[Citizen-T]

I really don't like the technicals here. I'm tempted to cut my losses on my calls and wait for a better entry point. The thing is I know if I capitulate that has got to be the bottom. Lol.

 

[FANGO]

reminding everybody of the other 20,000 ICE car fires annually

Closer to 200,000 in the US, lessmog.

 

[fjm9898]

Market action tomorrow if going to have alot to do with AAPL tomorrow and we have to see what it will do. I am holding weekly puts as protection right now, but i am wondering if i should bet on APPL by selling them and popping Tesla up tomorrow. we seem to have some good support here around 163 that we could bounce off of in the morning with APPL up.

 

[justthateasy]

No, I don't think this tells us anything about Q3. I think that our expectations here got overblown. The market is not looking for 6600 cars to be delivered. The street high is 5500. Assuming our more refined estimates of 5900ish are accurate, market is still going to be surprised.

Edit: I should reiterate though that the more important part of earnings is guidance. We need to hear good guidance to move the stock.

Basing my current assumption off past earnings reports, I doubt we'll hear any bullish guidance from Tesla other than them reiterating that they are "on track" to deliver with previously stated guidance. I think they it's a play to under promise now and over deliver a serious blow out later.

 

[Convert2013]

Market action tomorrow if going to have alot to do with AAPL tomorrow and we have to see what it will do. I am holding weekly puts as protection right now, but i am wondering if i should bet on APPL by selling them and popping Tesla up tomorrow. we seem to have some good support here around 163

Al analysts have gotten super quiet. Waiting for a big gun and raise or re-iterate the PT with new analysis. Where are you guys DB, et all???

 

[justthateasy]

I really don't like the technicals here. I'm tempted to cut my losses on my calls and wait for a better entry point. The thing is I know if I capitulate that has got to be the bottom. Lol.

Well my trailing stop was executed at 167 in the first 20 minutes of the day and in a way I'm glad it happened. Based off the technicals, I'm looking to get back in at a better price and that might actually be in the 150s.

- - - Updated - - -

Al analysts have gotten super quiet. Waiting for a big gun and raise or re-iterate the PT with new analysis. Where are you guys DB, et all???

At this point I kind of want GS to come out with an "upgrade" to give us a better buying opportunity. The only question is when will they make an announcement?

 

[FluxCap]

Something that is important to remember is that Tesla is overvalued on a fundamental basis, it is a simple mathematical fact, it's not up for debate.

This is an unequivocal, absolute lie. Valuation is a function of assumptions. No analyst on the planet can predict the future value of a company with 100% certainty. Every single model used by analysts to value a stock uses assumptions about future profits, revenues, cashflows and liabilities and those assumptions have a massive effect on the valuation. You may assume the future will be worse than some do, but that is far from "mathematical fact," unless you happen to possess a time machine. If you do, please let me use it.