Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[InTheShadows]

So I was curious about the comparison of the run up prior to Q1 and now. So I picked a random date (Apr 1 because I only had to change the month to get the data.) prior to earnings for Q1 then made that price 100%. I then did the same thing with Q2. Here are the results. Interesting that the run ups are some what similar percentage wise.

 

[sleepyhead]

Great graph Theshadows.

It looks like either shorts are piling in or weak longs are cashing out of TSLA right now. I say let them.

 

[clmason]

Conviction is a tricky thing. It wavers day to day if not hour to hour.

I for one have a small percent of my portfolio in TSLA but it is up 400%. To date I have pulled out my cost, remaining stock position is profit. My original hypothesis for getting into Options was to expose myself to a potential Q2 earnings pop, should that happen. In the event there is no Q2 pop but a dip I will reinvest.

Point being, I am holding strong through earnings even though options are already up an amazing percent, mostly purchased on the MS dip day just 21 days ago. Recalling Elon's tweet, "first in last out", helps strengthen my conviction.

Good luck to all.

Very Long Tesla

 

[DaveT]

Just noticed Aug13 strike 220 calls for $0.28. Wow, that is bold especially with dropping option premiums after ER.

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Just noticed Aug13 strike 220 calls for $0.28. Wow, that is bold especially with dropping option premiums after ER.

Actually, I take that back (that was OptionsHouse). OptionsXpress is showing Aug13 285 strike calls. What?!?

 

[deonb]

Actually, I take that back (that was OptionsHouse). OptionsXpress is showing Aug13 285 strike calls. What?!?

With 210 volume .


What does a TSLA short call a $285 Aug13 call at expiration?

Deep in the money.

 

[sullitf]

Actually, I take that back (that was OptionsHouse). OptionsXpress is showing Aug13 285 strike calls. What?!?

I'm seeing the same on InteractiveBrokers, but it looks like there hasn't been any interest beyond the 200 strikes

 

[jeffro01]

Just noticed Aug13 strike 220 calls for $0.28. Wow, that is bold especially with dropping option premiums after ER.

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Actually, I take that back (that was OptionsHouse). OptionsXpress is showing Aug13 285 strike calls. What?!?

Okay, what does that mean? My apologies for not understanding...

Jeff

 

[DaveT]

I'm seeing the same on InteractiveBrokers, but it looks like there hasn't been any interest beyond the 200 strikes

Here's a screen grab from OptionsXpress

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Okay, what does that mean? My apologies for not understanding...

Jeff

It just means that there are some very optimistic people buying these calls with very high strike prices. If stock shoots above $200 w/in the next 8 trading days... or for some, above $285, then they make a lot of money. They could be trying to trade it prior to expiration but option premiums will tank if the movement upward isn't fast and continual post-Q2 earnings.

 

[sullitf]

"very optimistic" is a nice way of putting If a Aug13 200 was around $0.15 I'd buy a few for the hell of it, but it seems crazy to me to go for a 285...

Maybe the expectation is that the premiums for the 285 could jump dramatically if the price hits 180 or 200 after ER?

 

[c041v]

It means that there is now the option to buy options at a $285.00 strike price. The likelihood of TSLA hitting getting near that price (To realize any sort of profit from a Call option) is evidently not as unlikely as it previously was. That is bold.

I'm also something of an options newb, so I'm not sure if the house is now just taking bets with these odds, or if there's some sort of formula that determines what the available strike range should be.

edit: My brokerage (TD) now has them as well.

 

[NuclearPowered]

Just noticed Aug13 strike 220 calls for $0.28. Wow, that is bold especially with dropping option premiums after ER.

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Actually, I take that back (that was OptionsHouse). OptionsXpress is showing Aug13 285 strike calls. What?!?

If we have the same percentage of run up following Q2 as we did Q1, those 220s would be ITM. Might as well be playing powerball buying Aug 285s. With 210 contracts traded at 285 and 451 traded at 280, I wonder who would be doing that and what they know that we don't? Expecting an epic shortsqueeze maybe?

 

[kevin99]

So I was curious about the comparison of the run up prior to Q1 and now. So I picked a random date (Apr 1 because I only had to change the month to get the data.) prior to earnings for Q1 then made that price 100%. I then did the same thing with Q2. Here are the results. Interesting that the run ups are some what similar percentage wise.
View attachment 27650

Fascinating how it matches up so well in the last few days. Definitely something to keep coming back to look at when lost. Thanks Theshadows!

 

[DaveT]

TSLA at $285/share would mean a $33.8 billion market cap. Got to let that sink in a bit.

 

[Darren12]

$285 a share also means a 100% run up from where we closed today. That's one hell of a short squeeze

 

[DaveT]

$285 a share also means a 100% run up from where we closed today. That's one hell of a short squeeze

Alright, sorry guys for bringing up $285. I think we're getting carried away.

 

[Norse]

wtf? Are u guys giving up on the VW 800% squeeze?

 

[aznt1217]

Alright, sorry guys for bringing up $285. I think we're getting carried away.

People with pie in the sky targets have BEEN carried away, but they (for the most part) are the long term holders. I think DB got it right at ~$160. Only because of the convertible notes and a small premium on those. More importantly I think the target is justified because of global demand which is greatly underestimated due to the current economic storms around the globe. What many people in America don't realize is that gas is way more expensive overseas that the Model S virtually pays for itself in savings.

Once this thought becomes mainstream AND results from around the globe come in... time to buckle your seatbelts. The Tesla rocket doesn't need to be reusable like the grasshopper because it's only going up.

With that said, I believe Elon's personal target was a $50B market cap when Gen 3 rolls around. I $30B is doable by the time Model X becomes more finalized. The demand on Model X is going to be immense-- judging from my own personal surveying. America is still an SUV hungry country.

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wtf? Are u guys giving up on the VW 800% squeeze?

Gave up a long time ago on that one.

 

[deonb]

It's at 2:30pm tomorrow PST.

If you don't know what I'm talking about, you shouldn't be on this thread .

 

[DaveT]

It's at 2:30pm tomorrow PST.

They will release the Q2 shareholder letter sometime after 1pm PST tomorrow. The event deonb is referring to will follow at 2:30pm.

 

[gym7rjm]

Alright, sorry guys for bringing up $285. I think we're getting carried away.

I'm putting a bid in tomorrow morning for 100,000 contracts at $0.01. I think I can afford that on margin... and when it shoots up past $285 I will exercise those 10 million shares. I think that might even cause an additional squeeze into the 500's.