Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[brianman]

Today's close: 138.25

Someone has a time machine!

 

[brianstorms]

This is a piece that came out from a company others on TMC are investing in, but I find it particularily applicable to TSLA at this time.

Organovo Cautions Investors in Regards to Articles - Yahoo! Finance

Funny you should mention ONVO. Just sold all my ONVO to buy more TSLA yesterday. Would've liked to hold on to ONVO but wanted more TSLA more.

 

[justthateasy]

Today's close: 138.25

Last night I predicted we'd see TSLA have a range of -3.50/+2 and finish just slightly above 140. So far, my downside was beaten by -.86 and my upside was beaten by +2.239 and we're relatively flat on the day so finishing slightly above 140 is still possible with the way things are going. Though closing at 138.25 is not out of the realm of possibility with the stock. Then again, the chart I have for TSLA is showing the stochastics being severely oversold with a current trading price of +.03 (the last I checked) in the intraday so we can expect to see a bump in share price as shares get bought up before the end of the day.

 

[twinklejet]

I am still standing by my prediction of a close above 140.

 

[theganjaguru]

Their motive is whatever generates the most traffic.

I don't know about that. I've written a few lucid, articulate, and factual comments rebutting SA's outlandish negative remarks regarding TSLA, only to have them not published or removed. This behavior does not show integrity. It only proves that they have an agenda to slander. Plus my inbox is flooded with negative articles lately.... But I just smile to myself as I press the delete button and think, "poor little shorts losing their shirts making me some money!"

As a result of their actions I think Seeking Alpha is garbage.

 

[AudubonB]

ON JOINING INDICES:

We now have TSLA as a part of the Nasdaq 100 and the MSCI World.

1. Has anyone kept up to date with how many funds, and their respective sizes, are set up to mirror these two indices? Given TSLA's fractional amount in them, how would those numbers shake out with respect to the amount of shares that should be locked up in those index funds?

2. More interestingly, I think, is where TM will fit in sub-sector index funds. Is TSLA to be an automotive stock, a tech stock, or neither fish, fowl nor good red meat? Or might it be in both auto AND tech sectors? Or...

3. And when might it be so pigeonholed? My recollection is that it used to be the case that any name in the MSCI also automatically was assigned to a subsector. Is this still the case?

4. In this age, with the plethora of ETFs, how does this redound to TSLA?

The more major indices to which TSLA is assigned absolutely influences demand for shares...but effectively as a one-off event. And fund managers typically have a small amount of wiggle room wrt when they have to mirror their respective index - but not a lot.

 

[RABaby]

ON JOINING INDICES:

We now have TSLA as a part of the Nasdaq 100 and the MSCI World.


2. More interestingly, I think, is where TM will fit in sub-sector index funds. Is TSLA to be an automotive stock, a tech stock, or neither fish, fowl nor good red meat? Or might it be in both auto AND tech sectors? Or...

Tesla the car is a pure EV.
TSLA the stock is a hybrid.
It's unique qualities are what make it so difficult to define by the groups that compete with it.

 

[sahanim]

Tesla the car is a pure EV.
TSLA the stock is a hybrid.
It's unique qualities are what make it so difficult to define by the groups that compete with it.

I would argue that Tesla is a tech company IN the auto industry. Just like FB and LNDK are tech companies in the social media and communications industry.

The notion of "tech company" inherently makes the company extremely disruptive because of the new technology it brings to the industry.

Is tesla a tech company? yes.
Is tesla an auto company? yes.

 

[justthateasy]

It looks like we're closing flat today just slightly below 140 with a minute left to the close.

 

[twinklejet]

Ah well I was off by 33 cents..

- - - Updated - - -

Oh look the forum's clock is at least 2 minutes slow!

 

[Citizen-T]

I made $68 today, lol. Can't complain about that with how ugly the market was.

 

[justthateasy]

So we just closed +.31 at 139.67. Should we count closing flat an end to the bleeding and a precursor to an upswing or is this just a bandaid and we can count on more pain in the coming days?

- - - Updated - - -

I made $68 today, lol. Can't complain about that with how ugly the market was.

Something is better than nothing right? Then again, TSLA is all ready down -.37 in after hours trading. :wink:

And yes, looking at the larger picture at the bloodbath in the market, I'll take flat over some of these losses.

 

[austinEV]

Let's look at the chart. The bright pink line is the 20 day moving average. It has been tested twice and passed both times, and this is a third (I don't count the pre-earnings day, or that would be a fourth). The stock has developed these little 3 or 5 day bear patterns periodically and they have always signaled a local minimum. Tomorrow is day 5 of the bear run. Coupled with the fact that the lockup was either completely false, or overblown, tomorrow will either open sharply up, or start down and turn around intraday. I plan to take a sizeable call position and catch a little run-up in the next 1-2 weeks. In hindsight the day after earnings going outside of the bollinger band was kind of a sell point, and it was a doji to boot...

Risks: The general market acts like it wants to go down. Or, TSLA might genuinely be entering a doldrums period, in which case it might want to test the 50 day (120/share).

View attachment 28310

As expected, today the 20 day showed strong support, and it was a reversal day even into strong market headwinds. That bodes very well for the next phase. I closed my puts at the open and got a bunch of sept calls (and puts on the spy...) Hopefully this plays out like every previous little 4 day bear week with a 2-3 week quiet run-up that only looks like a run-up in hindsight:

 

[justthateasy]

As expected, today the 20 day showed strong support, and it was a reversal day even into strong market headwinds. That bodes very well for the next phase. I closed my puts at the open and got a bunch of sept calls (and puts on the spy...) Hopefully this plays out like every previous little 4 day bear week with a 2-3 week quiet run-up that only looks like a run-up in hindsight:

View attachment 28358

Look how cute bears can be, do you really want to end this guy's run?

 

[ShortSlaver]

It's funny to see technicals starting to be applied to TSLA. Our little boy is growing up!

 

[TSLAopt]

As expected, today the 20 day showed strong support, and it was a reversal day even into strong market headwinds. That bodes very well for the next phase. I closed my puts at the open and got a bunch of sept calls (and puts on the spy...) Hopefully this plays out like every previous little 4 day bear week with a 2-3 week quiet run-up that only looks like a run-up in hindsight:

View attachment 28358

I always thought of chart technicians in a similar fashion to astrologers when it comes to predicting the future. However, this time I really am hoping you are right on this one.

 

[Mr. Farmer]

As expected, today the 20 day showed strong support, and it was a reversal day even into strong market headwinds. That bodes very well for the next phase. I closed my puts at the open and got a bunch of sept calls (and puts on the spy...) Hopefully this plays out like every previous little 4 day bear week with a 2-3 week quiet run-up that only looks like a run-up in hindsight:

View attachment 28358

I also closed out half of my puts for a weak profit and bought some $140 1 day calls. There is now a $5 buffer between the market close and any significant amout of stop loss triggers, so day trade shorts probably won't be able to reach them and it seems like the bears are afraid to short for more than a day right now. 2 things in play... 1: Market went down- significantly, TSLA went up. I would disagree that this is good for TSLA tomorrow. 2: TSLA has pulled back by what may be enough for some people and is now up. This is typically a strong signal to buy.

 

[austinEV]

I always thought of chart technicians in a similar fashion to astrologers when it comes to predicting the future. However, this time I really am hoping you are right on this one.

I agree that chartists can use technical jargon to justify any position. If you want to annoy a chartist, say "ok, switch to the weekly and explain it again". The chart will look different and they will start sweating to prove their point all over again. In this case though I think you can make the case that sentiment has not been bearish for long periods for a long time. Yet.

 

[GJMcManus]

I agree.. If you look at charts

1 day - sideways
5 days - down
30 days - up
6 months - up
1 year - up

 

[TSLAopt]

I agree that chartists can use technical jargon to justify any position. If you want to annoy a chartist, say "ok, switch to the weekly and explain it again". The chart will look different and they will start sweating to prove their point all over again. In this case though I think you can make the case that sentiment has not been bearish for long periods for a long time. Yet.

Yeah, makes sense when you put it that way. It seems all the negative press on seeking alpha and other news sources are a threat to reverse sentiment, just not sure how serious of a threat when it's clearly the best car out there and they are clearly making money at this point in terms of cash flow.
hopefully there will be some positive news out sooner than the next earnings report which I'm guessing will beat analysts current estimates for Q3.