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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Ok, I am going to say it because nobody on this forum has even considered this possibility:

The reason for the Tesla sell-off post earnings was/is the supplier bottleneck. Elon said that it will take 6 months to sort it out. They just delivered 5150 vehicles and guided towards 5000 in Q3, and the market extrapolated another 6000 in Q4 (based on 21,000 guidance for full year).

Going into earnings there was evidence that Tesla was producing at a 25,000 - 30,000 annualized rate. So the market was extrapolating 23,000 for FY13, and since they didn't get it the stock sold off.

The reason for this sell-off is that the market figures it will have almost 6 months of minimal growth from Tesla (production pretty much the same, high margin growth offset by low ZEV revenue). So the market thinks that it will be able to buy back TSLA at the same price towards the end of the year. And there is no reason to hold, since you are exposed to execution risk as well as other risks.

Tesla simply can't grow fast enough to justify its stock price in the short run.


I actually thought that the supply bottleneck, taken in context of information that Tesla was in talks with Samsung about battery (cell) supply, and also on the call the plurality of the term "battery suppliers", was a kind of mixed punch in the gut. But then I found myself being impressed by the discipline that has been applied by Elon in particular in not over-stating 2013 production, and instead focusing on "testing the ceiling of demand" in 2014. This is actually much more exciting than "oops we can't make guidance", this is a company being managed properly.

Obviously it is really useful to do the ground work on Gross Margin optimization, process and supply-chain optimization, Supercharger roll-out, service center, store and gallery roll out, developing right hand drive for Japan, UK, Australia, South Africa, charging system for Japan, and prepping minor changes in the operation of lights and indicators (Sweden for example requires at least side lights to be illuminated at all times while driving even in bright sunshine). I absolutely loved Elon's "I would be honored if Japanese buy our cars". That is what one should say if you want Japanese to buy your cars.*

Getting all that done in 2013 before going nuclear in 2014 is a much better foundation for a $140+ stock price based upon the ultimate destination of this business as perhaps the worlds largest and most successful company, than would be the case if the thinking was short rush for extra unit production that lacked this kind of steady vision and discipline. Most likely Samsung will come on stream earlier than expected rather than later and that will make for a great announcement.


*A funny asside, Axion CEO on his Q2 call alluded to the idea the BMW and those of that ilk are time wasters. That is the opposite of what one says on an earnings call if you are looking to preserve any hope of securing a deal.
 
I am hopeful for tomorrow. I rolled the dice and bought some Aug $140s near the close for $1.22.

BTW, yes, this is gambling, not investing. I basically just put a few dollars on black and spun the wheel. I didn't post about this move before hand because I didn't want anyone following me. Don't try to take away any lesson from this if I end up winning big. Now, if I lose it all (very likely) then maybe there is a lesson for us both to learn in that. =P

Sold half for $2.75. Not bad.
 
It will be a big turning point for all EVs when their popularity (and stock prices) are directly and publicly tied to the price of oil/gasoline.


Grrr. No.

It is absolutely the greatest security that Tesla has that folk want the cars first and are delighted to save on fuel and be green second.

You really do not want your market to be controllable by your ultimate competitor.

Late '90s OPEC dumped the oil price to stifle innovation in alternatives, an event that contributed to the death of the EV1. Musk knows this and Tesla makes products that are invulnerable to another attack of that nature.


P.S. Why are GM so frikkin' stupid? All they have to do is tidy up the EV1 interior to modern standards and put a modern battery in it and they would have a 200 mile range cult classic on their hands instantaneously that is already designed and road ready.
 
Grrr. No.

It is absolutely the greatest security that Tesla has that folk want the cars first and are delighted to save on fuel and be green second.

You really do not want your market to be controllable by your ultimate competitor.

Also, who says electricity will remain cheap? Didn't Obama say that electricity rates will have to double if we're going to deal with the global warming crisis in a real way? (Can't find the exact quote.)
 
Also, who says electricity will remain cheap? Didn't Obama say that electricity rates will have to double if we're going to deal with the global warming crisis in a real way? (Can't find the exact quote.)

Make you own electricity. With Solar electrictity will be cheap for the future. Oil can never be cheap, cause it cost so much to get it. And Peakoil has probably already been a while ago.

The typical Margin Interest Rate is at 8-9% Annually depending on the broker. So, say 8%, if you use margin for 1 day the interest rate is 1/365 * 8%, which should be very puny...

Anyone pls correct me if I give misleading info...

I dont think you pay interest if you daytrade with margin, I don't. If it's two days, then your Math sounds right
 
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