Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[braski]

Ok I see. Thanks for the reply. Did you think about going deeper OTM on that put if you expect both GS and gov incompetence to have an effect?

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Actually I have a better question, what is the exact timing on the congressional decision today? Is it a final decision on the budget/last chance to cancel obamacare today? I can't find much info on it and only caught a bit of news and some cspan.

 

[fjm9898]

Government shut down will happen on Monday night (11:59pm) as its the end of the quarter. If they dont get the debit ceiling figured out by then that is when shut down happens and the market will go ape S

 

[Citizen-T]

TSLA officially a 10 bagger for me today. Purchased first shares many moons ago for ~$19.

 

[TSLAopt]

Norwegian Origo are getting out property and industry, and buying TSLA. http://www.hegnar.no/analyser/aksjetips/article742938.ece

Can you paraphrase what this article is saying in English....seems important

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It's never time to sell TSLA. I am just trying to play into my theory that there will be a sell off due to large uncertainties heading into this weekend. I am basically betting on the fact that the government is incompetent and will help me make some money.

I also think that GS will come out with their report early next week if we have markets tanking due to government shutdown or risk of government shutdown. I am still very bullish on TSLA and will most likely lose money on this put trade.

i agree with the channel theory but if we're on the verge of another historic short squeeze then I think the channel gets broken big time to the upside with major volatility at the tail end of the short squeeze...could be a second wave of the tsunami coming any of these times and I wouldn't want to miss that surf

 

[Curt Renz]

Can you paraphrase what this article is saying in English....seems important

Paste the article into Google Translate: http://translate.google.com

 

[dmunjal]

Can you paraphrase what this article is saying in English....seems important

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i agree with the channel theory but if we're on the verge of another historic short squeeze then I think the channel gets broken big time to the upside with major volatility at the tail end of the short squeeze...could be a second wave of the tsunami coming any of these times and I wouldn't want to miss that surf

What's the high end of the channel right now? I haven't seen a current chart.

 

[sleepyhead]

Can you paraphrase what this article is saying in English....seems important

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i agree with the channel theory but if we're on the verge of another historic short squeeze then I think the channel gets broken big time to the upside with major volatility at the tail end of the short squeeze...could be a second wave of the tsunami coming any of these times and I wouldn't want to miss that surf

1. That article seems kind of irrelevant. All it is is a fund manager saying that he likes TSLA. He also said they are moving out of industries with overcapacity such as solar sector. Therefore, I wouldn't take this guy too seriously because solar overcapacity is about to end very shortly and I can't believe that the "professionals" can't even see this coming.

2. I am still long TSLA with a bunch of bull call spreads and some unhedged March 250s, but I bought this put as a short term speculation play. I will be a lot better off financially if TSLA takes off and my put expires worthless. Just trying to scalp a couple of bucks on a mini pullback.

 

[Snoopie]

After much consternation I sold My core shares of Tesla @ 190.80. My thesis is We are at the top of the channel, there will be a pullback before earnings and I will re-enter very strong pre earnings.
My fear is that I'm wrong. I made this mistake before at 45 but I didn't know about the great resources on this site at that time. My thesis when I got out was that I made 20% from January to mid april and I shouldn't get greedy, reenter if wrong. Boy was I wrong! I reentered in the 80's, right after the Goldman stunt and recently at the bottom of the channel at 161. New thesis being I will never sell. That has served me well and time may prove that I shouldn't have altered it. But I have made my move and now time will judge if my change of thesis was wise. Any thoughts on my move and advise on what to do if I'm wrong?

 

[jak]

TSLA officially a 10 bagger for me today. Purchased first shares many moons ago for ~$19.

5 bagger for me. I dumped most of the cash in my savings into the shares in March. Although, I sold some shares 2 days ago to buy my first Model S and pay various taxes associated with the short-term sale. i.e. I bought TSLA to pay Tesla Motors to get my own Tesla Model S. Is that Tesla psychosis or what? All the money seems to stay in Tesla. :love:

 

[KYCurry]

I've observed that when stocks and indexes approach major milestones they always take them out then have a correction. They never just fall short or continue to run (note: I haven't exactly done research on this). I'm not sure what the investor psychology is, maybe euphoria, but I see it over and over again. TSLA at 100 is an example, it crested 100 then corrected down before resuming its run. I think we will see this again at 200. TSLA may take out 200 from here or have a baby correction before going on to take out 200. Once TSLA crests 200 it will have a more significant correction down to 170ish.

Now we wait and see if my 1st post is brilliant or a blunder!

 

[aznt1217]

TSLA officially a 10 bagger for me today. Purchased first shares many moons ago for ~$19.

Ah yes. After the Peter Rawlinson flash crash? The real question is... are you cashing out and getting defensive?

 

[brianstorms]

Everyone has different priorities, for sure. I never quite understand all the fretting about selling or not, though. Tesla's barely gotten out of the starting gate, has years of growth ahead! Why sell now?

As for me, I'll start fretting about when to sell when TSLA's between 1000 and 1100.

 

[blakegallagher]

TSLA officially a 10 bagger for me today. Purchased first shares many moons ago for ~$19.

Congrats T

 

[KYCurry]

My thesis is We are at the top of the channel,

I like the idea of trading in and out of stocks at the tops and bottoms of trading channels but what always happens to me is the best stocks always tend to leave me behind when I try this. TSLA has been at the top of its channel for the last 7 days so if you sold it seven days ago at 180 and it continues to ride up on the top edge of its channel (as it has) your missing out on a lot of profit and it gets harder to find a profitable reentry point. I'm afraid to try this on a stock that has the potential to be so revolutionary.

 

[kevin99]

Though I called Tesla "the stock of decade" back in June, when it was just under $100, I have to admit at times I can't believe TSLA can continue to keep going up, without medium pull back (major pull back seems out of possibility without mini and medium pull back first). To manage that scenario, I have "cautiously" been building hedge position to balance my ever increasing account size :wink:. In my recent memory, I am actually cheering for $3-$5 price drop more often than wanting it to go up. Every time it makes a ATH, I thought it will have to take a breathe but I have been disappointed many times. I have to keep moving up with TSLA or to be left behind.

 

[KYCurry]

5 bagger for me. I dumped most of the cash in my savings into the shares in March. Although, I sold some shares 2 days ago to buy my first Model S and pay various taxes associated with the short-term sale. i.e. I bought TSLA to pay Tesla Motors to get my own Tesla Model S. Is that Tesla psychosis or what? All the money seems to stay in Tesla. :love:

2.15 bagger for me! But who's counting.

 

[sleepyhead]

For those who are holding shares, I would recommend holding them and forgetting about it. You will not do well trying to time the market, because TSLA might take off very quickly in a very short amount of time.

Trading in and out of TSLA doesn't make sense. The only time you should sell is if their is a fundamental shift in the company and/or economy and you want to decrease your exposure.

I remember a few months ago someone wrote: "I finally cashed out TSLA at $140 after buying at $40. I will buy back after a pullback." To which I responded:

"Good job on taking profits.

Good luck buying TSLA back for less."

And that still holds true today.

 

[aznt1217]

For those who are holding shares, I would recommend holding them and forgetting about it. You will not do well trying to time the market, because TSLA might take off very quickly in a very short amount of time.

Trading in and out of TSLA doesn't make sense. The only time you should sell is if their is a fundamental shift in the company and/or economy and you want to decrease your exposure.

I remember a few months ago someone wrote: "I finally cashed out TSLA at $140 after buying at $40. I will buy back after a pullback." To which I responded:

"Good job on taking profits.

Good luck buying TSLA back for less."

And that still holds true today.

Although I am holding my core position of common shares. I've been waiting to jump into options with cash raised from SCTY. This price action (sharing sentiments of Kevin) makes a lot of us nervous because no substantial news came out to change the fundamentals of the trajectory of the company.

I'm fairly certain we'll see a $500/share price (ex any splits) by the time Model X rolls out (EOY 2014). If Elon pulls a Steve Jobs "one last thing" in Q3 or Q4 Earnings by releasing Model X Beta... then we're going to see some serious action VERY quickly to the $250 range.

 

[Causalien]

You guys can just go back to the previous post and look at the same chart, it is still the same one I posted last time. But just for your convenience, I am re-posting it. We are still in the middle of the channel going into a flag formation with a very strong TA confluence level at $204.

A market "tell" on the recent rise is what happened during quadruple witching Friday. Instead of the closeout actions being a price steadying effect, the closeout actions actually resulted in a run up in price.

 

[Citizen-T]

Ah yes. After the Peter Rawlinson flash crash? The real question is... are you cashing out and getting defensive?

No. I did buy a ton that day, but most of my position started just weeks after the IPO.