Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[borat99]

If you want to take profits just before earnings with options you might want to wait until the very last moment instead of the day before because the IV usually goes up dramatically just before earnings and may well change minute to minute until closing bell on the day of earnings.

Is this always true or is this what you think of TSLA's IV based on Q2 experience? The week of earnings I'm going to in Asia. It would really suck to have to stay awake until 4 or 5AM to buy calls last minute before closing bell. Is there a more convenient way to accomplish this timing?

 

[Jack6591]

Interestingly, the next NASDAQ short interest report (10-9-13 dissemination) will not include the fire event. The (10-24-13 dissemination) will cover the baird downgrade and the fire event.

Considering Q3 results, is an epic "short squeeze" in the making?

 

[pz1975]

If you want to take profits just before earnings with options you might want to wait until the very last moment instead of the day before because the IV usually goes up dramatically just before earnings and may well change minute to minute until closing bell on the day of earnings. The IV premium hence might be way better (some people play purely on deflating IV as a play by selling OTM call+put with hopes of collapsing IV profit, works well as long as there is no huge move)

Would you mind extrapolating on this concept for us newbies?

Do you mean that people sell OTM calls and puts close to the end of earnings day so they can make more per contract sold because the IV is higher? Are these short or long contracts?

And what do you mean by "play purely on deflating IV"? Do you mean they are trying to deflate/lower IV by selling more OTM puts and calls? Why would that be?

Thanks.

 

[sleepyhead]

Would you mind extrapolating on this concept for us newbies?

Do you mean that people sell OTM calls and puts close to the end of earnings day so they can make more per contract sold because the IV is higher? Are these short or long contracts?

And what do you mean by "play purely on deflating IV"? Do you mean they are trying to deflate/lower IV by selling more OTM puts and calls? Why would that be?

Thanks.

If TSLA is reporting earnings post market close on 11/6/13 then the IV will be highest right before 4pm on 11/6. Therefore some people sell OTM puts and calls hoping that they expire worthless to capture the expensive premium. They are going short the put and call, hoping that the stock doesn't move a lot in either direction post earnings to benefit from volatility crush and then buy back the options for a lot less post earnings.

IV deflates very quickly on the day after earnings announcement, especially if the stock doesn't move much post earnings.

 

[mitch672]

Many members have already commented on this poorly written article, in case you haven't seen it, here is the link, it is of course from Seeking Mediocrity: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Will Tesla Design New Vehicles In Time To Prevent More Devastating Battery Fires? - Seeking Alpha

 

[bareyb]

Many members have already commented on this poorly written article, in case you haven't seen it, here is the link, it is of course from Seeking Mediocrity: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Will Tesla Design New Vehicles In Time To Prevent More Devastating Battery Fires? - Seeking Alpha

Every time someone clicks through on that link those jackasses make more money. You sure you want to propagate that nonsense (assuming it's nonsense since I didn't click through).

 

[FluxCap]

Every time someone clicks through on that link Bin Laden's undead zombie corpse eats 30 baby seals and drinks the blood of 10 virgin unicorns.

Fixed that for you.

 

[mitch672]

Every time someone clicks through on that link those jackasses make more money. You sure you want to propagate that nonsense (assuming it's nonsense since I didn't click through).

Not trying to make anyone money, I could extract the text and post it, denying the author (he barely has a brain, really), but it's been stated not to do that in the past. Just letting everyone know the bears are relentless in their attacks. We need someone to write a counter Seeking Alpha Article to this piece, debunking the heavy conjecture and BS (of course they probably wouldn't publish it, since they have a clearly bear TSLA agenda)

 

[Ryo]

Many members have already commented on this poorly written article, in case you haven't seen it, here is the link, it is of course from Seeking Mediocrity: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA): Will Tesla Design New Vehicles In Time To Prevent More Devastating Battery Fires? - Seeking Alpha

I posted this comment on this article yesterday but the SA admins deleted it and gave me a warning. I guess this crossed the line...

• How much longer will you drive around your combustion vehicle in which you are more likely to have a fiery death? If a regular car had struck that debris it would have pierced through the whole car and potentially killed someone. How many cars have the 1/4 inch armored plating on the bottom? This article is design to get clicked on and not contribute to any useful debate around tesla.http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-fire

 

[kevin99]

Some movement in pre-market, down to $181 from high of $184, now back to $183. Any reason behind it?

 

[InTheShadows]

I posted this comment on this article yesterday but the SA admins deleted it and gave me a warning. I guess this crossed the line...

• How much longer will you drive around your combustion vehicle in which you are more likely to have a fiery death? If a regular car had struck that debris it would have pierced through the whole car and potentially killed someone. How many cars have the 1/4 inch armored plating on the bottom? This article is design to get clicked on and not contribute to any useful debate around tesla.http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/model-s-fire

Had you not included the last sentence they probably would have left it on the site, it's a shame because your other points are spot on.

 

[blakegallagher]

anyone seen this and think it has any implications for today? Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Tops Goldmans Overwriting List

 

[kevin99]

anyone seen this and think it has any implications for today? Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Tops Goldmans Overwriting List

What does "overwriting" here mean?

 

[pGo]

That generally means opportunity to do a covered calls.

What does "overwriting" here mean?

 

[GJMcManus]

What does "overwriting" here mean?

A fancy way for GS to say Tesla is overvalued..

 

[Citizen-T]

I believe they mean writing options contracts as opposed to buying them.

 

[hershey101]

A fancy way for GS to say Tesla is overvalued..

I wouldn't say so. Writing calls can be much different than saying tsla is overvalued. Lots of us here write calls. They are basically saying that they don't think the stock will cross $185 (the break even for the $180 calls) by next Friday which is a reasonable statement. Much different than saying "we believe this stock is worth $84" or some nonsense like that.

 

[sleepyhead]

It is just a different way of saying that option premiums are way too high, and that you should be selling options instead of buying them.

That is also a reason why I am sitting on the sidelines. I am hoping for a short consolidation period that will allow IV to go down. I have a feeling it may not happen, but we will see.

 

[kevin99]

Some movement in pre-market, down to $181 from high of $184, now back to $183. Any reason behind it?

Can't understand the pre-market movement. Back to < $182. Too significant for off hour?

 

[Norse]

Jefferies rasies PT from 160$ to 210$,
raised delivered cars estimate in Q3 from 5 250 to 5 500.