Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Chickenlittle]

like others i have taking a major hit. three days ago, i woke up and invested remainder of cash for the upcoming earnings call buying oct and nov calls. usually i would of been working and had no time for that, but am off as had the birth of our second son. woke up this morning and got a call that my grandmother died. all just a reminder, here today, gone tomorrow, both life and money.

You should look at last three earnings day of report. ALL with very large drops on day of the report. Last about 14 pt on day of earnings. Past behavior not predictor of future but would keep some cash to enjoy on earnings day. I think this happens because some afraid to risk large gains already made but of course they lost out

 

[aznt1217]

I can't help but notice that some folks on this board have no plans when TSLA goes down. What if TSLA goes to $100? still hold? at what point are some of you planning to sell? Is it really ride it all the way down?

We need some solid drivers of why it would go to $100. A lot of the bullish sentiment here is based on facts that we have on company performance (we have an idea of an estimate of deliveries and all the stuff that goes with that). This argument was presented to me when I had the stock at $30. At what point would you sell? My response was you cannot pick an arbitrary number. For example, if the fire had required a recall I think many of us would have sold in the short term.

 

[KYCurry]

I can't help but notice that some folks on this board have no plans when TSLA goes down. What if TSLA goes to $100? still hold? at what point are some of you planning to sell? Is it really ride it all the way down?

The price of TSLA was 100 just a couple of months ago. Most of us paid less than 100. Suppose things get really ugly and it drops to 65. We still own a company that makes the safest car in the world, sales the Consumer Reports highest scoring car ever, is (as I understand) a pure pleasure to drive. They just became profitable and at 65 dollars a share would still be significantly up on the year. So, why sale?

 

[brysondad]

i am believer in market will always move in the most painful direction.

- if TSLA goes down, retail longs (even some hedge funds) may finally forced to sell
- if TSLA goes up, shorts were wiped out on the last push to $194 (so they are not hurting), the longs already spent their firepower averaging down around here... so who's buying to push this up.

I'm thinking the most painful move is down.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Is it really ride it all the way down?

Sure, I will keep my shares till every car in the world is electric.
Drive the change.
Be part of it.
Or not.
Your choice!

 

[brysondad]

Sure, I will keep my shares till every car in the world is electric.
Drive the change.
Be part of it.
Or not.
Your choice!

you are missing the point. i'm talking about investment and making money, not changing the world.

 

[FANGO]

you are missing the point. i'm talking about investment and making money, not changing the world.

But brysondad, you are missing the point. Many of us have been on board with this since the 20s precisely *because* we see the world changing, and TSLA being a catalyst for it. That makes it a smart investment, if you think the world is going to change and TSLA is going to lead the charge.

You can't ignore the "changing the world" part, because that's the whole thesis of the stock to begin with. If you don't want to change the world, then buy some t-bills or something.

 

[Larken]

The DOW, S&P are back in the green, Nasdaq is almost back in the green and TSLA has also recovered lost ground in the afternoon, any news in particular that has lifted the market?

 

[kevin99]

Interestingly LNKD is already in the green. QQQ is close to making even. Perhaps there is a chance to recoup most of the loss?

 

[ev-enthusiast]

you are missing the point. i'm talking about investment and making money, not changing the world.

I thought by investing you are changing the world

 

[FluxCap]

The DOW, S&P are back in the green, Nasdaq is almost back in the green and TSLA has also recovered lost ground in the afternoon, any news in particular that has lifted the market?

The Morning Plum: A clarifying moment of Washington dysfunction

 

[GJMcManus]

Hope weak longs keep selling, that means more shares for me at "discounted" price....

Tesla "Elon" is a buy and hold until Elon goes to Mars...

 

[brysondad]

But brysondad, you are missing the point. Many of us have been on board with this since the 20s precisely *because* we see the world changing, and TSLA being a catalyst for it. That makes it a smart investment, if you think the world is going to change and TSLA is going to lead the charge.

You can't ignore the "changing the world" part, because that's the whole thesis of the stock to begin with. If you don't want to change the world, then buy some t-bills or something.

I don't wanna harp on this too much. let's move on to TSLA. I'll just end with General Electric's mission statement (or almost any company's mission statement): "We build, move, power and cure the world." http://www.ge.com/ar2012/ Change the world is generic.

What if the $161 conversion price doesn't hold for the convertible bonds? who stands to gain/hurt from it?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Alcoa mentioned new demand for aluminum from car makers three times in their conference call last evening. Did not mention tesla but obviously a part of that

 

[ev-enthusiast]

all just a reminder, here today, gone tomorrow, both life and money.

You have my deepest sympathy.
I wish you and your family all the best.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
All true.

 

[hershey101]

Having a tough time breaking $170... If we get past $170.50, then we can see $175, but I see a higher likelyhood of reverting back to $162 than going to $175.

 

[fjm9898]

It appears the market did not like Yellen taking over the Fed

 

[AlMc]

Even a tweet from Elon would just be a waste of ammunition. In situations like this all we can do is tough it out. IMO the market is being completely irrational as fear has kicked in. If you are looking long term, this is a great buying opportunity as I still believe we will be over 200 by the end of this year. Short term though is a different story. Unless there is an actual deal made, that oct 17th date will keep many buyers away.

Agreed. This is not a situation where an Elon tweet or even a good Q3 ER will help much. Save that info for after the macroeconomic fiasco is dealt with properly. Positive news from Elon/TM will be lost in all the Washington noise.

I can't help but notice that some folks on this board have no plans when TSLA goes down. What if TSLA goes to $100? still hold? at what point are some of you planning to sell? Is it really ride it all the way down?

Great question and I have asked myself this without a definitive answer. I believe there are three types of investors of TSLA stock , First, the 'I believe in the EV revolution and Elon and am here long term (10+ years) no matter what. Second, ' My intent is to be a long holder (5+ years) until the Gen III (E) vehicle shows that Tesla can make an affordable, compelling, long range (200+) mile EV and the company/stock are mature so that the possibility for the big run ups (gains) are not there anymore and I will move to another high tech/growth company'. Finally, 'I intend to buy and hold but with the swings sometimes I 'day trade/week trade/trade near earnings calls'.

I believe the first two groups (many forum members) will hold below $100...or even add. The third group will bail out as they are looking for shorter term gains/not totally bought into the EV revolution/disruptive technology

 

[Mario Kadastik]

The only thing the market will like is a government startup...

 

[Noble Ninja]

Great question and I have asked myself this without a definitive answer. I believe there are three types of investors of TSLA stock , First, the 'I believe in the EV revolution and Elon and am here long term (10+ years) no matter what. Second, ' My intent is to be a long holder (5+ years) until the Gen III (E) vehicle shows that Tesla can make an affordable, compelling, long range (200+) mile EV and the company/stock are mature so that the possibility for the big run ups (gains) are not there anymore and I will move to another high tech/growth company'. Finally, 'I intend to buy and hold but with the swings sometimes I 'day trade/week trade/trade near earnings calls'.

1) True believers and supporters
2) Long, value-oriented investors
3) Short-term traders

Interestingly enough, one can actually be all three at the same time. :tongue: