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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Rick Munarriz at Motley Fool is predicting Tesla moves higher this week (see "3 Predictions for the New Week" Nov. 23). This summer he was negative about the prospects for rapidly-rising Tesla stock, but now he has changed his tune and is predicting an up week.

This prediction is in tune with the Warren Buffet's quote: "The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble… We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table."
 
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http://www.dagbladet.no/2013/11/19/tema/bil/aaretsbil/elbil/tesla/30396142/
Tesla Model S is car of the year in Norway by a landslide!
The original post and this one should probably go in its own thread, but I couldn't resist referencing this specifically (since some of us are visual):

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http://gfx.dagbladet.no/labrador/303/303976/30397615/jpg/active/480x.jpg
 
The thing about content and reputation is that Curt Rentz has several decades to back whatever he says while tftf only has 3 months. So when tftf makes wild claims without explanation backing up his theory, or even when with explanation, there are more people who is going to listen to Curt.

As for RPR, you've already established your reputation from several years of contribution, it is very different from tftf. Same for me, I've been online for more than a decade and my pen name is more well known than my real name. I am hoping that by keeping a consistent user name I can bring some weight to my argument without having to re-build my credibility everywhere I go.

I don't have a problem with shorts. For example, Realist puts his money where his mouth is and came to this forum knowing he is going to be attacked by Tesla lovers. It is something I emphasize with as I do that myself to test out whether or not my short will work and how passionate the user base is. However when someone with no skin in the game just constantly pushes an agenda, I often wonder why bother? There is skin in the game for everybody, the skin just isn't revealed. Otherwise, you could be spending those hours wasted posting somewhere else to earn money. Why waste your time? So it is this hidden agenda that's always on my mind that wasn't clarified whenever I read tftf's posts, or people with similar writing styles.

Tftf, you've proven your point, the stock went from 197 to 121, what is next? Is the goal to convince everyone that TSLA will declare bankruptcy and save all of us from losing our money? Or is it to drive it down more so you can also accumulate? What is in it for you for you to dedicate so much time? This question is why people don't doubt Curt Rentz, we already know because he's been public for so long.

This is the same point I've tired to make in a couple posts regarding people like tftf, I think you did a better job. I can't stand reading all the negativity, go put your time into a stock/company you believe in. I think part of the reason people like tftf want to see the company fail and the stock implode is that they didn't catch the ride up and the only way they will feel better is to see it crash so they can say "told you so" and be relieved of their regret.
 
This is the same point I've tired to make in a couple posts regarding people like tftf, I think you did a better job. I can't stand reading all the negativity, go put your time into a stock/company you believe in. I think part of the reason people like tftf want to see the company fail and the stock implode is that they didn't catch the ride up and the only way they will feel better is to see it crash so they can say "told you so" and be relieved of their regret.

It is those who missed the run up in TSLA and then when it got over $100, they thought it was too expensive and started shorting it. So not only did they miss out, they are now on the wrong side of the trade and losing money on the way up to $190. It makes people bitter, so they look for revenge and hope that Tesla fails.

If you are American, then you should be rooting for Tesla to succeed. If you are rooting for Tesla to fail then I have no sympathy for you at all.
 
It is those who missed the run up in TSLA and then when it got over $100, they thought it was too expensive and started shorting it. So not only did they miss out, they are now on the wrong side of the trade and losing money on the way up to $190. It makes people bitter, so they look for revenge and hope that Tesla fails.

If you are American, then you should be rooting for Tesla to succeed. If you are rooting for Tesla to fail then I have no sympathy for you at all.


Good point. I think it's human nature. I didn't sell my tsla as early as you but did so on first news of 3rd incident. As we all know, price dropped quickly the next day. I found myself rooting against the stock because I wanted my play to be validated and I wanted to buy back in cheaper, I felt dirty for doing it because I'm 100% behind tesla. Like you I have started buying some shares again, feels good to be openly behind the company and stock. The difference between people like tftf and myself is I did not start posting negatively or spreading FUD to improve my position, I simply sat back and watched.
 
Good point. I think it's human nature. I didn't sell my tsla as early as you but did so on first news of 3rd incident. As we all know, price dropped quickly the next day. I found myself rooting against the stock because I wanted my play to be validated and I wanted to buy back in cheaper, I felt dirty for doing it because I'm 100% behind tesla. Like you I have started buying some shares again, feels good to be openly behind the company and stock. The difference between people like tftf and myself is I did not start posting negatively or spreading FUD to improve my position, I simply sat back and watched.

Even though I have been buying TSLA at $118-$139, I am still quietly rooting for TSLA to go down so that I can buy more cheaper. I am in it for the long haul and the lower it goes the better it will be for me. I am not spreading FUD though to get the stock to go down. I am still praising the company and support the bull case. It is just that in the short run the sentiment has turned bearish and there could be more downside until we get a big positive catalyst.

IMO you don't have to be American to root for Tesla to succeed. Tesla is doing a revolutionary work in the automobile field and for this reason I root for Tesla to succeed even if I am not American.
So everybody should root for Tesla to succeed IMO.

I agree that everyone should root for Tesla to succeed. I singled out Americans, because I could somewhat understand if for example a German wanted Tesla to fail in order for BMW or Volkswagen to dominate the EV landscape; not many people are like that but it is a remote possibility.

On the other hand, if you are American there is no reason to be against Tesla.
 
Thank you, I appreciate the feedback.

I think intraday price action is what it is especially with a stock as volatile as TSLA. The sudden spikes could be due to a number of reasons such as a bot's algorithms, day traders' price targets being met, scalpers, short covering, rumors hitting the web, possibly OPEX (as you saw), etc. Do remember that there is a much larger picture so any gains seen today could easily be tomorrow's losses. Even with yesterday's price action, if you look at a daily chart, TSLA pretty much finished flat yesterday while narrowing the wild swings seen earlier in the week.

TSLA finished the week at a pivot point, actually in between the pivot and level 1 (near term) resistance, which also happens to be the resistance line of the channel. If a reversal were to happen, TSLA would need to finish above 123.70 on Monday and continue above that on Tuesday. Though any kind of rally may be short lived as there'll be profit takers and a closing of positions along the way thus possibly creating a lot of resistance at in the upper 120s (~128) and we can easily find ourselves at this level the week after.

On the flip side, TSLA has been trading in a very tight channel lately and there is too much downward pressure on TSLA with plenty of room to drop to the 200-day MA, about 109 as of yesterday's close. Which subsequently is in line with the latest technicals. Because of this, I don't think we'll see any kind of meaningful upside until late December or early January. One scenario I've looked at is a cup and handle formation where TSLA can dip well below the 200-day MA, bottom out in the low 90s/upper 80s in mid-late December, start picking up in January and run up all the way to 150-160 by Q4 earnings in February. Not saying that it will happen but one possible outcome.

sleepyhead posted on here in the last couple weeks that TSLA is a good value right now but he's still not buying, and I'm with him on that due to the amount of possible downside. I would personally like to take a long position here but I don't want to lose my shirt and see a today's gains are tomorrow's losses scenario like we saw this past Tuesday and Wednesday. Just to put it out there, I nearly scalped yesterday with buying at 118 when I saw it then planning to sell at the end of yesterday. I didn't do it because we're too close to the resistance line and I want to have the cash available on a much larger dip. Overall, I'm very bullish about TSLA and we'll see a $300 stock price in the next three years. But in the meantime, I intend to play the swings along the way.

Thanks again justthateasy for being so specific and sharing your insights. Very, very much appreciated. I think your posture and strategy is 100% right on.
 
Scottcouto,
You have posted two posts in your time here on TMC, and there's a disturbing pattern:

Thanks again justthateasy for being so specific and sharing your insights. Very, very much appreciated. I think your posture and strategy is 100% right on.

and

I truly appreciate your insight and enjoy this thread. I've been closely watching TSLA's price action and was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the sudden and dramatic rise in price in such a short period of time yesterday? I don't recall seeing that kind of intraday movement upward since earnings. I've been researching online and have only come across a few explanations for it. They all claim that OPEX was the reason for the dramatic jump yesterday, that it was temporary and we will likely continue the downward trend through next week. Does this seem likely or could it be a sign of a reversal?

Both the quotes compliment justthateasy and repeat his quotes that are quite bearish in the short run. Do you think we don't see the game you're playing here?
 
Even though I have been buying TSLA at $118-$139, I am still quietly rooting for TSLA to go down so that I can buy more cheaper. I am in it for the long haul and the lower it goes the better it will be for me. I am not spreading FUD though to get the stock to go down. I am still praising the company and support the bull case. It is just that in the short run the sentiment has turned bearish and there could be more downside until we get a big positive catalyst.



I agree that everyone should root for Tesla to succeed. I singled out Americans, because I could somewhat understand if for example a German wanted Tesla to fail in order for BMW or Volkswagen to dominate the EV landscape; not many people are like that but it is a remote possibility.

On the other hand, if you are American there is no reason to be against Tesla.

Thank you for your honesty sleepyhead. I really appreciate your selfless contribution to this site. It's helped me out immensley. I only wish I had found this site many months ago.

I'm in the same situation having purchased at $137. Last week REALLY hurt. I thought for sure 132 was the bottom as did many others. I was floored (or should I say pissed) when TSLA blew right through $132 to current levels in a day with no negative catalyst. I'm now seriously concerned about this whole NFLX 2011 comparison scenario I'm reading about. I have zero confidence in $119 as a bottom. The chart looks eerily similar to the chart right before the drop from $132 to $119. It's frustrating that every little thing that involves TSLA is on the front page and is usually spun negatively by the media if possible. Any negative catalyst with the ridiculous timing of the 3rd fire can't happen before Q4 ER. I'm bullish TSLA and love everything about the company, but am also secretly rooting for the stock to drop so that I can buy more at a much lower price. I just can't see this $119 'support' holding. $132 was supposed to hold. The same people saying $132 was definitely the bottom are now saying $119 is definitely the bottom. I feel like if I purchase more in the $120's, then I'll wake next week to see the stock at $100 or less. I like what justthateasy had to say and I'm planning to follow his advice and look at buying again down in the 80's, with enough reserves to buy again if it goes lower and with a strong hope that GenIII and the giga-factory play out as envisioned by Elon.

- - - Updated - - -

Good catch. :)
Disturbing? Give me a break. I'm currently upside down hundreds of thousands of dollars because I purchased at $137. In just 1-day. I'm looking for objective insight and not subjective. I'm thanking those that are bulls, but are being realistic short term and I now agree with. sleepyhead and justthateasy. I wish I would have had someone giving that kind of insight in the $130's. Would have saved me a whole lot of short term pain.
 
Disturbing? Give me a break. I'm currently upside down hundreds of thousands of dollars because I purchased at $137. In just 1-day. I'm looking for objective insight and not subjective. I'm thanking those that are bulls, but are being realistic short term and I now agree with. sleepyhead and justthateasy. I wish I would have had someone giving that kind of insight in the $130's. Would have saved me a whole lot of short term pain.

Note: scottcouto changed his name to MSMX2014 this evening. He may change it again. The post two above this one belongs to the party in question.

Hmm, if you have lost at least $200,000 on stock purchased at $137 and it has fallen 16 points, you must have paid at least:
200,000/16=12,500 shares x $137= $1,712,500 for those shares and you only now have gotten around to looking at the TMC forum. Further, you are actively trying to scare away investors with your undeniably bearish comments on a very public forum. Sir, you have the most unusual money management methodology I have ever observed. I suggest mutual funds as a safer alternative.
 
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The mods may have to change the name of this thread to the official Tesla FUD thread. Signal to noise ratio used to be so good here, but now with all of these new posters it's deteriorated significantly with what is obviously paid shills for god only knows who. My apologies to any new posters who actually have something worthy of posting in this thread.
 
The mods may have to change the name of this thread to the official Tesla FUD thread. Signal to noise ratio used to be so good here, but now with all of these new posters it's deteriorated significantly with what is obviously paid shills for god only knows who. My apologies to any new posters who actually have something worthy of posting in this thread.

Whle it annoys me the extra noise from this FUD on the forum, it ultimately makes me buy more when I see more of these shills come out. It's a trading signal to me that another short squeeze is around the corner.
Every week there are perhaps 100-200 more high net worth investors buying TSLA (I'm estimating 40-60% of people who buy a Model S become an investor and half of those people are high net worth investors)...this is an incredible buying opportunity and the fact that these shorts all just piled on and are spreading massive FUD is the chance of a lifetime to invest in what has a chance to become the greatest American company of the 21st century.

While I hate seeing their annoying comments, I know it's only a matter of time until they lose. Whether its this week, next week, next month, or next year when the battery supply constraints are relieved.
Buy now and good things come to these who wait.
 
Whle it annoys me the extra noise from this FUD on the forum, it ultimately makes me buy more when I see more of these shills come out. It's a trading signal to me that another short squeeze is around the corner.
Every week there are perhaps 100-200 more high net worth investors buying TSLA (I'm estimating 40-60% of people who buy a Model S become an investor and half of those people are high net worth investors)...this is an incredible buying opportunity and the fact that these shorts all just piled on and are spreading massive FUD is the chance of a lifetime to invest in what has a chance to become the greatest American company of the 21st century.

While I hate seeing their annoying comments, I know it's only a matter of time until they lose. Whether its this week, next week, next month, or next year when the battery supply constraints are relieved.
Buy now and good things come to these who wait.

+1. Whether you buy now as many are doing..or buy a little now and wait for the 'possible' 200MA of $109 you will get a great long term return. It is difficult to play the volatility with options but as a long term buy we are at levels I personally thought we would never see again.

Disclosure: I personally thought Q3ER would lead to a blow out up and I was mistaken but I believe that the fundamentals of TM are virtually unchanged and has been mentioned, when (not if) the supply constraints are lifted...look out.
 
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